Pac-12 Basketball Notes: All-Conference Picks, Bubble Teams, Etc.

As we await the Pac-12 tournament, which starts Wednesday, we look at our all-conference team and a few other items.

All-Pac-12 Team

It’s not Most Valuable Player or Most Outstanding Player, it’s Player of the Year, which opens myriad interpretations. But we forge ahead.

The official all-Pac-12 team selected by the coaches, which will be released in the coming days, is likely to have 10 to 15 players named to its first team, making the award virtually meaningless.

We select a five-man all-conference team, and the cool thing about our all-Pac-12 squad is that we could put these five players on the floor together and have a hell of a team. When making these choices we gave more weight to performances at the end of the season, when results are more meaningful.

Center – Branden Carlson, Utah (16.0 points, 7.4 rebounds, 2.1 blocks) -- A 7-footer who is second in the conference in blocked shots while making 39 three-pointers is a keeper.

Power Forward – Azuolas Tubelis, Arizona (19.9 points, 9.2 rebounds, 57.7 FG%) – First player to lead the Pac-`12/Pac-10 in scoring since 2006, when Cal’s Leon Powe averaged 20.0 points and 9.9 rebounds.

Small Forward – Jaime Jaquez, UCLA (17.5 points, 8.0 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 1.5 steals) – He averaged 22.7 points over the final seven games and averaged 9.6 rebounds during UCLA’s current 10-game winning streak.

Shooting Guard – Boogie Ellis, USC (18.1 points, 3.0 assists) – I know USC lists Ellis as a point guard, but we see him playing off the ball in our starting five. He averaged 25.7 points over the final six games while hitting 47.3% of his three-pointers in that span. And some of those threes were from waaaay out.

Point Guard – Tyger Campbell, UCLA (12.9 points, 4.7 assists) – Campbell made just 38.5% of his shots, which gave us pause, but he expertly directed the offense and defense of the team that finished four games ahead of the field. He averaged 17.7 points, 4.0 rebounds, 4.0 assists and 1.3 turnovers over the final four games: home wins over Arizona and Arizona State and road wins over Utah and Colorado.

Player of the Year

Jaime Jaquez, UCLA

He did everything UCLA needed during its current 10-game winning streak, particularly in the second half of games. Note his stats above in the games down the stretch to help the Bruins win the regular-season title by a comfortable margin. Yes, Tubelis led the conference in scoring and rebounding, but Powe did not win player of the year when he led the conference in both categories 17 years ago, and Cal finished closer to first place in 2006 (two games back) than Arizona did this year (four games back).

Coach of the Year:

Kyle Smith, Washington State

The coaches are likely to select UCLA’s Mick Cronin, and I have no qualms with that. But Smith took a team that lost four starters from last season’s team that finished 11-9 in the conference and cobbled together another 11-9 Pac-12 season. And the Cougars are playing their best basketball at the end of the season, having won six games in a row. You could argue an 11-9 conference record at Washington State is as impressive as an 18-2 mark at UCLA. The last coach to lead Washington State to consecutive winning conference records was Tony Bennett in 2007 and 2008. Uh, Tony Bennett, folks.

On the Bubble

Arizona State and Oregon need impressive showings in the Pac-12 tournament to earn at-large NCAA tournament berths, and the Ducks may need to win the event to qualify.

To guess what each team needs to do to get a bid to the Big Dance is pointless because so much depends on (1.) what other bubble teams across the country do and (2.) the number of surprise winners in other conference tournaments that eliminate teams on the edge of the cutline. For example, if Washington State wins the Pac-12 tournament, that would push the last at-large team out of the picture.

Here's how the experts see the Oregon-ASU situation as of Sunday, March 5.

--ESPN’s Joe Lunardi lists the Sun Devils as one of the “First Four Out” and Oregon as one of the “Next Four Out”

--Jerry Palm of CBS Sports has neither Arizona State nor Oregon in his “First Four Out.”

--Mike DeCourcy’s projections for FOX Sports have Arizona State as one of the “First Four Out” and Oregon as one of the “Next Four Out.”

It is enough to say Arizona State is right on the cusp of an at-large bid and probably needs to do something in the Pac-12 tournament to improve its resume. Oregon probably needs to beat Washington State in its opener and UCLA in the semifinals to have a shot, and that might not be enough without a conference tournament title.

Can Oregon, the No. 4 seed, win the conference title? Well, two years ago Oregon State won the event as a No. 5 seed with a 10-10 conference record. However, there were no top-20 Pac-12 teams in 2021; now there are two in the top 15.

Is a No. 1 Seed in NCAA Tournament Important?

UCLA is very much in the running for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament, as Lunardi and DeCoucy both elevated the Bruins to a No. 1 seed in their March 5 bracket projections.

Does it matter?

A lot of media attention is paid to the No. 1 seed, and it may seem that it is merely an ego award for the recipients. Afterall, how much easier is the road to the Final Four for a No. 1 seed than for a No. 2 seed?

But there is a significant factor that goes along with being a No. 1 seed. Quite simply, No. 1 seeds have a much better chance of winning it all.

In the 37 seasons since the NCAA field was expanded to 64 teams, a No. 1 seed has won the title 24 times (64.8%) while No. 2 seeds have won only five times (13.5%). A No. 1 seed has won the national championship in each of the past five NCAA tournaments, and the only time in the past seven NCAA tournaments that a No. 1 did not win it all was 2016 when a buzzer-beating shot by Villanova’s Kris Jenkins beat top-seeded North Carolina in the title game.

So, yes, being a No. 1 seed matters – if only for what it suggests about a team’s title chances.

Highs and Lows

---Team most likely to surprise in the Pac-12 tourney: Washington State

---Team most likely to flame out early at the conference tournament: Utah

---Glory at the top: A month ago it appeared a tight Pac-12 title race would come down to the final game, but UCLA ended up winning by four games. The last time the Pac-12/Pac-10 regular-season champ finished four games or more ahead of the second-place team was 2004, when Stanford finished 17-1 and wound up five games ahead of second-place Washington at 12-6.

---Ignominy at the bottom: Cal has lost 15 games in a row, the longest active losing streak among teams from the Power Six basketball conferences, and the third-longest losing streak in Division I. Cal Poly and Presbyterian each lost its 18th consecutive game Saturday.

Cover photo of Jaime Jaquez is by Richard Markson, USA TODAY Sports

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