Pac-12 Basketball Notes: UCLA on the Bubble; Best Pro Prospects, Etc.

Three issues to address:

1. What do Arizona and UCLA have in common with most of the other traditional basketball powers?

Put UCLA and Arizona in a group that includes Duke, Kentucky, North Carolina, Louisville, Michigan State, Indiana, Syracuse, Georgetown and Connecticut and you have perhaps the 11 biggest powerhouse college basketball programs over the past 40 to 50 years.

What they have in common is this: Not a single one of them is ranked in this week’s AP top-25 poll.

There have been 81 NCAA men's basketball tournaments, and 70 of them have been won by schools that are currently unranked. Six teams have won more than two national championships, and none of them is among AP’s top 25 this week.

Kansas could be included in this group of regal basketball programs, and the Jayhawks were unranked last week before sneaking in at No. 24 this week.

Villanova is the only member of this august class of basketball royalty that is a solid top-25 team this season, and the Wildcats slipped five placed to No. 10 this week after getting blown out by Creighton.

2. Who are the best pro prospects in the Pac-12?

The Sports Illustrated video atop this story tries to make the case that USC freshman Evan Mobley should be considered among the best college players in the country.

Uh, no.

You could make a pretty good case he is not even the best player in the Pac-12 with guys like Stanford’s Oscar da Silva, Colorado’s McKinley Wright IV, Oregon Chris Duarte and Arizona State’s Remy Martin around.

Mobley is certainly in the conversation for Pac-12 player of the year, but that’s in large part because the Trojans are leading the conference at the moment. In each of the past four seasons the Pac-12 player of the year was a member of the regular-season champion. That’s just how these things work.

But best college player in the nation? Come on.

What SI’s Wilton Jackson should be saying in that video is that Mobley might be the best pro prospect in college basketball at the moment. That’s a very different category. Occasionally the best player in college basketball is the best pro prospect, but not often. Iowa’s Luka Garza is widely considered the best player in college basketball this season, but he is unlikely to be a first-round pick and may be no better than a backup center in the NBA.

As a pro, Mobley looks like a can’t-miss prospect with his length, athleticism and ever-expanding toolbox of skills. He might be the first player taken in the 2021 NBA draft and certainly will be among the top five picks.

We rank the top 10 current Pac-12 players in terms of their NBA prospects, expecting only the top six to get drafted and knowing this could change considerably between now and the draft.

1. Evan Mobley, freshman, USC – 7-footer has length, athleticism, skills and room to improve

2. Ziaire Williams, freshman, Stanford – He has not had the expected impact, but he still might be a lottery pick.

3. Josh Christopher, freshman, Arizona State – Inconsistent in college, Christopher might blossom in the pros.

4. Marcus Bagley, freshman, Arizona State – Bagley and Christopher have a chance to be taken late in the first round.

5. Chris Duarte, senior, Oregon -- NBA scouts can’t ignore all the skills he brings to the table, but he should be available in the second round.

6. Bennedict Mathurin, freshman, Arizona – He has risen considerably in recent weeks based on sequences like this (video below):

Still not over this BLOCK ➡️ BUCKET sequence by Bennedict Mathurin

cc: @APlayersProgram pic.twitter.com/IlcJQgOtgJ
— FOX College Hoops (@CBBonFOX) January 15, 2021

7. Oscar da Silva, senior, Stanford – The best player in the Pac-12 this season, da Silva does not have an NBA body and might not get drafted.

8. Chris Smith, UCLA – If scouts are satisfied his knee is OK, Smith might get taken in second round.

9. Will Richardson, junior, Oregon – He missed a lot of this season, but he has NBA size and skills.

10. Remy Martin, senior, Arizona State – Too small for the NBA’s liking, but they should love his heart.

Is UCLA on the bubble?

If you take a look at projected NCAA tournament fields at various respected sites you get some very different opinions.

USC, Oregon and Colorado seem to be safely in the tournament field at the moment, and Stanford is barely in or barely out according to different sites.

But the most interesting case is UCLA. The USA Today projection has the Bruins in the field as a No. 6 seed, while ESPN and CBS Sports place a No. 9 seed tag on the Bruins. But Sports Illustrated has UCLA as one of the last four teams to get a first-round bye, giving the Bruins a No. 11 seed. That, folks, is the bubble.

UCLA is in second place in the Pac-12, but it has lost three of its past five games, including a loss to Washington State and an escape against Washington. Getting a handle on what the selection committee thinks of UCLA is difficult.

We forge ahead to our weekly categories:

Top Five Teams (at the Moment)

---1. USC (17-3, 11-2) – The Trojans have won six straight and seem to be getting better.

---2. Oregon (12-4, 7-3) – With Will Richardson, Chris Duarte and Eugene Omoruyi on the court together, the Ducks can make a run at the title – if they play enough games.

---3. UCLA (14-5, 10-3) – The Bruins are in second place, just a game out of first, but they have lost three of their last five and barely beat Washington.

---4. Colorado (16-6, 10-5) – Buffaloes were set to jump into the No. 2 slot in our top five before that disturbing loss to Cal.

---5. Stanford (13-8, 9-6) – The ultimate bubble team.

Pac-12 player-of-the-year-standings

---1. Oscar da Silva, Stanford (19.2 points, 6.9 rebounds, 1.1 blocks) – He will remain the leader as long as the Cardinal stays close in the title race.

---2. Evan Mobley, USC (16.6 points, 9.0 rebounds, 3.15 blocks) – Mobley’s chances to be named player of the year increase with each USC victory.

---3. McKinley Wright IV, Colorado (14.4 points, 4.3 rebounds, 5.7 assists) – Buffaloes’ loss to Cal hurt Wright’s chances. So does going 5-for-25 (20 percent) on three-point shots over the past nine games.

---4. Chris Duarte, Oregon (17.2 points, 4.9 rebounds, 2.4 steals, 44.2 3-pt%) – Ducks teammate Eugene Omoruyi is challenging Duarte for this slot, but we love Duarte’s production when the game is on the line.

---5. Tyger Campbell, UCLA (11.1 points, 5.8 assists) – Poor showing against Washington (season-low two points, four assists, fouled out) and Bruins’ recent struggles barely keeps him on this list.

Pac-12 freshman-of-the-year standings

---1. Evan Mobley, USC (16.6 points, 9.0 rebounds, 3.15 blocks) – He’s the clear-cut Pac-12 freshman of the year unless something shocking happens.

---2. Azuolas Tubelis, Arizona (11.7 points, 6.3 rebounds, 40 3-pt%) – A 6-foot-11 player who can make three-pointers is a valuable commodity.

---3. Josh Christopher, Arizona State (14.3 points, 4.7 rebounds) – Arizona State beat Oregon State without Christopher, who was sidelined with a leg injury.

---4. Bennedict Mathurin, Arizona (11.6, 4.5 rebounds, 42.7 3-pt%) – Too inconsistent, but spectacular at times.

---5. Ziaire Williams, Stanford (11.7 points, 5.4 rebounds, 2.5 assists) – The versatility is impossible to ignore despite mediocre performances in his first two games back. That obvious talent is why he’s on this list, ahead of ASU’s Marcus Bagley.

Pac-12 Player of the Week

---Winner: Johnny Juzang, UCLA – We rarely pick a player whose team lost a game during the week, but Juzang’s averages of 28.5 points and 7.0 rebounds in the split with Washington and Washington State were too impressive to ignore.

---Runnersup: Eugene Omoruyi, Oregon and Evan Mobley, USC – The two had nearly identical numbers --- Omoruyi 18.5 points, 7.0 rebounds and Mobley 18.5 points, 9.0 rebounds -- while leading their teams to sweeps – Oregon over the Arizona schools and USC against the Washington schools. Omoruyi did it against better competition, but Mobley’s six blocks against Washington State offset that.

Team on the Rise

---Oregon (12-4, 7-3) – The Ducks are whole again and have won three in a row as they make a late bid for a title.

Team on the Skids

---Oregon State (10-10, 6-8) – Picked to finish last, the Beavers looked like the surprise team of the Pac-12 when they were 6-5 in conference play, but they have lost three in a row since.

Team on a Mystery Tour

---UCLA (14-5, 10-3) – The Bruins are 2-3 since their 8-0 start in Pac-12 play. Is this just a brief slump or a sign that UCLA is falling apart. Their two wins in the recent slide were far from dominant.

Numbers of Note

9 – Blocks by USC freshman Evan Mobley in the Trojans’ two games last week, including six in the win over Washington State.

7 – Number of scholarship players Arizona State had available for its game against Oregon State, and two starters averaging double figures in scoring (Josh Christopher and Marcus Bagley) did not play. The Sun Devils still won.

1 – Number of Arizona State scholarship players who have played every game this season. The one who has played in all 16 is Holland Woods, a transfer from Portland State. He made two free throws with five seconds left to provide the Sun Devils with a two-point win over Oregon State, which had defeated ASU earlier this season when the Sun Devils had all their key players available.

3-for-13 – Chris Duarte’s field-goal percentage, which included 1-for-6 on three-pointers, before he hit a three-point shot with 15.6 seconds left to turn a one-point deficit into a two-point lead in Oregon’s 63-61 victory over Arizona.

0 – Number of Oregon games scheduled to be played against USC and UCLA this season. Their originally scheduled games were postponed, and so have some rescheduled attempts. Now, with the Pac-12 tournament scheduled to start March 10, time is running out to reschedule Oregon’s games against USC and/or UCLA. It would be a shame if there were no games between the Ducks and the L.A. schools, since those seem to be the three best teams in the conference. Oregon might meet USC or UCLA in the conference tournament, but it is not guaranteed.

UPDATE: On Thursday, the Pac-12 announced that Oregon will face USC in Los Angeles on Monday, Feb. 22, at 6 p.m. and will be televised on FS1. To accommodate that matchup, USC's game against Stanford, which was scheduled for Feb. 22, has been rescheduled for the first week in March, although an exact date and time have not been determined.

The Pac-12 also announced that Arizona State will play at Washington on Tuesday, Feb. 23. That game was originally scheduled for Saturday, Jan. 2, but was postponed.

1 – Number of Pac-12 teams ranked in this week’s AP top-25 poll. USC is ranked No. 17, the Trojans’ highest ranking since they were 14th on Nov. 27, 2017. USC was unranked to begin this season, and was not even among the 50 teams that received votes in either the preseason AP and coaches polls.

0 – Number of Pac-12 teams that were among the top 16 seeds in the NCAA tournament if the men’s basketball selection committee had made its choices on Feb. 13. No surprise here, nor was it a surprise that the Big 12 has five teams in that 16-team group or that the Big Ten had four, including three in the top five.

7 – Number of games this season that Washington guard Marcus Tsohonis has scored four points or fewer.

5 – Number of games this season that Washington guard Marcus Tsohonis has scored 22 points or more.

4th – Evan Mobley’s national rank in blocked shots per game, at 3.15. It’s the best among players from major basketball conferences.

4.28 – The assist-to-turnover ratio of Arizona’s Terrell Brown Jr., which is sixth-best in the country and best among players from major basketball conferences.

82.4 – Colorado’s free-throw percentage, which ranks No. 1 in the country.

0 – Number of Colorado players who rank among the nation’s top 80 in free-throw percentage. (Several Buffaloes players don’t have enough free-throw attempts to qualify.)

Quotes of the Week

---“I think it’s exciting because we’ve got our team now. If we can keep everybody healthy, avoid any more pauses, I like the guys. I think we get better and better and better. We’ve got four weeks, five weeks here to get better and try to make a run. I think we’ve got a lot of upside if we can keep everybody going.” -- Oregon coach Dana Altman

--“He’s a human heat check." -- Washington State coach Kyle Smith on Washington's Marcus Tsohonis, who scored a career-high 29 points in the win over WSU.

---“A tough loss. This one stings. It gives us our fifth [Pac-12] loss and we’re back in the pack. Thought we had a chance to compete for a championship." Colorado coach Tad Boyle after Saturday's surprising loss to Cal.

---“You know, I’m a big believer in 75% of this is the way you compete and you’ve got to teach your kids what championship effort is. There’s a difference between effort, winning effort and championship effort. You know, you can give effort, but there’s NIT effort. So what I’m trying to teach these guys is championship effort and that’s got to be the staple of what we’re about.” -- UCLA coach Mick Cronin, creating a new basketball term: "NIT effort"

Top Upcoming Game This Week

---Thursday, February 18, at Oregon's Matthew Knight Arena, 8 p.m. , ESPN2 – Colorado (16-6, 10-5 Pac-12) vs. Oregon (12-4, 7-3) – For Oregon to challenge for the conference championship it needs to beat a solid Colorado team that beat Oregon back on Jan. 7. Folks on the East Coast probably won't see this one.

Cover photo of USC's Evan Mobley by Stan Szeto, USA TODAY Sports

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