Tuesday ACC Tournament Games Critical for Idle Cal

Cal and Stanford have always been rivals, but the Bears will be rooting extra hard against the Cardinal in Stanford's ACC tournament game in Charlotte, North Carolina, on Tuesday.

Cal's long-shot chances of earning a berth in the NCAA tournament could hinge on the results of Stanford's game and two other first-round ACC tournament games on Tuesday, even though the Bears don't play their first game in the tournament until Wednesday against Florida State.

Such is the chaotic situation that Cal find itself, as results in other games in the same conference tournament and other conference tournaments across the country have a direct impact on the Bears' chance of getting into the NCAA tournament for the first time in 10 years.

Cal coach Mark Madsen said Monday he is "100 percent" still thinking about an NCAA tournament berth. "We need to start by winning this game against Florida State," he said

Actually their chances start with three games on Tuesday.

Cal is lingering on the bottom of the NCAA tournament bubble, needing a lot of things to happen in its favor this week. Stanford, SMU and Virginia Tech are also part of that bubble, and those three teams open ACC tournament play on Tuesday.

Even though Cal defeated Stanford both times the teams met this season, bracketologists generally give the Cardinal a slightly better chance of earning an NCAA berth.

CBS Sports NCAA tournament projections Monday morning list Stanford as the last time to make the 68-team field and lists Cal as the highest rated at-large team not to make the field. It also has SMU in the field as a No. 11 seed. Perhaps more telling is that 12 of the 105 projection sites listed on the Bracket Matrix site have Stanford in the March Madness field and none has Cal in.

The valued projections posted by ESPN's Joe Lunardi Sunday night have SMU, Virginia Tech, Stanford and Cal all on the bubble, but he puts Stanford, Virginia Tech and SMU ahead of the Bears in his ratings.

Cal is hoping all three of those teams lose on Tuesday, while Cal (21-10, 9-9 ACC) must do its part by upsetting Florida State (19-12, 10-8 ACC) a day later.

Tenth-seeded Stanford (20-11, 9-9 ACC) takes a four-game winning streak into its first-round game against 15th-seeded Pittsburgh (12-19, 5-13), and the Cardinal, which beat Pitt by eight points during the regular season, will be heavily favored in that game, which starts at 11 a.m. Pacific time.

SMU, the 11th seed with a record of 19-12 overall and 8-10 in the conference, has lost four in a row, so it will be only a slight favorite in its 1:30 p.m. Pacific time against against 14th-seeded Syracuse (15-16, 6-12).

Cal is hoping 13th-seeded Wake Forest (16-15, 7-11) can do to 12th-seeded Virginia Tech (19-12, 8-10) what the Deacons did to Cal on Saturday when they beat the Bears and hurt Cal's chances of making the NCAA tournament.

Cal and Stanford tied for ninth place in the ACC standings, and Cal earned the ninth seed in the ACC tournament while Stanford is 10th based on Cal's two victories over the Cardinal.

However, it seems that Stanford has an advantage playing a first-round game on Tuesday, since it gives the Cardinal a chance for another resume-building win and perhaps a second-round victory against slumping North Carolina State.

Meanwhile, Cal will be an underdog in its first game against Florida State and would face Duke in the quarterfinals if it wins Wednesday.

A case could be made that Stanford benefited from being seeded lower than Cal, giving the Cardinal a better chance to rack up important resume-building wins.

"Well, you know I think this could be debated amongst coaches," Madsen said whether it's an advantage of disadvantage to get the first-round bye. "This could probably be debated amongst bracketologists. Probably some depends on who that first-round opponent would be -- if you were to play them, what's their NET ranking and how would that affect Quad 1, Quad 2, or Quad 1 or Quad 2 opportunity. How do you match up with that team I mean there's a lot of things that go into it."

That is the silver lining for Cal. If Stanford should lose to a Pitt team that is 109th in the NET rankings, it would be a significant blow to the Cardinal's NCAA tournament chances.

If Stanford, SMU and Virginia Tech all win Tuesday, it would seem that Cal's only chance for a berth in the NCAA tournament would be to win the ACC tournament to earn an automatic berth.