Stanford May Have a Better Chance at an NCAA Tournament Berth Than Cal

So your telling me there’s a chance.

Yes, despite Cal’s Saturday loss to Wake Forest that seemed to end the Bears’ hopes of landing an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament, the dismal showing of other bubble teams across the country on Saturday have kept Cal in the conversation for a berth.

It is a long shot to be sure, but if Cal beats Florida State in its opening game of the ACC tournament on Wednesday, Bears players and coaches could at least pay attention when the 68-team field is announced on March 15.

But here’s the part that’s going to gall Cal fans: Stanford may have a better shot at getting an NCAA berth than Cal.

CBS Sports has the Cardinal (20-11, 9-9 ACC) in the NCAA tournament as a No. 11 seed in its Sunday morning NCAA tournament projections, and it has Cal (21-10, 9-9 ACC) in its First Four Out category.

The projections posted by Joe Lunardi of ESPN on Sunday morning have Stanford in his First Four Out group, just three spots from being in the NCAA field. He puts Cal in the Next Four Out category, suggesting the Bears must pass six teams to get into the 68-team field but within reach of a berth if a lot of things fall their way.

pic.twitter.com/uu4yC8sO5x
— Joe Lunardi (@ESPNLunardi) March 8, 2026

If Stanford gets into the NCAA tournament and Cal does not, Bears fans are going to scream bloody murder because Cal beat the Cardinal in both games between the two Bay Area rivals this season.

One of the criteria the 12-member selection committee looks at is head-to-head results, and if it comes down to a choice between Cal and Stanford for the very last at-large berth, the committee would have to select Cal.

Wouldn’t it?

Well, maybe.

The problem for Cal in the Cal-Stanford comparison is that Stanford has a better overall resume than Cal. Stanford has a NET ranking of 59; Cal is 65. Stanford has a Wins Above Bubble (WAB) ranking of 49 with a plus-0.02 rating; Cal has a WAB ranking of 50 with a minus-0.05 rating.

And here’s the big one: Stanford has five Quad 1 wins, including three Quad 1A wins (which is particularly impressive); Cal had four Quad 1 wins and one Quad 1A victory, missing a chance for a fifth Quad 1 win with its loss to Wake Forest.

The only reason either Stanford or Cal remains in the conversation for an at-large berth is the remarkably poor showing by other bubble teams on Saturday.

Bubble teams Virginia Tech, North Carolina State, SMU, USC, Oklahoma State, New Mexico, Auburn, Indiana, Texas, Missouri and Cincinnati all lost Saturday.

The best results were provided by San Diego State, VCU, Central Florida and Santa Clara, none of whom played Saturday, and by Stanford, which won its road game against North Carolina State for its fourth straight win. The Cardinal is playing good basketball at the moment, and although a team's performance late in the season is no longer part of the selection criteria, committee members can’t ignore recent trends in their subjective analyses.

Furthermore, Stanford probably benefits more than Cal from the seedings at the ACC tournament even though the Bears are seeded higher.

Stanford, the 10th seed, must play a first-round game against a very beatable Pitt team on Tuesday, presumably giving the Cardinal another win on its resume.

If Stanford advances, the Cardinal's second-round opponent on Wednesday would be North Carolina State, a slumping team Stanford beat on the road on Saturday.

Stanford’s quarterfinal opponent would be Virginia, a good but not an unbeatable team.

The Cardinal’s semifinal opponent would be either Miami or Louisville. Stanford beat Louisville in January, and Miami is coming off a Saturday loss.

Meanwhile, ninth-seeded Cal gets the “advantage” of not having to play a first-round game by getting bye. But its first ACC tournament game will be Wednesday against Florida State (17-14, 10-8 ACC), which beat Cal in triple overtime during the regular season and has won nine of its last 11 games, including a 91-78 victory over SMU on Saturday.

Even if it adds one win to its resume by upsetting the Seminoles, Cal’s quarterfinal game would be against Duke, the No. 1 ranked team in the country.

Of course, a win over the Blue Devils would lift Cal’s postseason status considerably. The Bears were outclassed by Duke in the Blue Devils’ 15-point win over the Bears in Berkeley on January 15. However, there is reason for Cal optimism against Duke this time, because two Duke starters -- center Patrick Ngongba and point guard Caleb Foster -- are unlikely to play in the ACC tournament as a result of injuries. Cameron Boozer is still healthy, though.

So the odds are stacked against Cal getting its first NCAA tournament berth.

But if Cal beats Florida State . . .

And all the other bubble teams, including Stanford, lose their opening games of their conference tournaments . . .

And there are no bid-stealers (teams that win their conference tournaments and earn an automatic NCAA tournament bid despite having a record that would not earn them an at-large berth, reducing the number of at-large vacancies) . . .

Then Cal has an outside shot of getting an NCAA tournament at-large berth.

Of course, winning the ACC tournament would do the trick too.