At Season's Halfway Point, How Does Cal Compare to a Year Ago?

First-year coach Tosh Lupoi has improved recruiting and fan support, but the Bears are just 3-3 as they make the turn on their schedule

Tosh Lupoi leads his team onto the field at Memorial Stadium | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

What matters now is how Cal fares over the final six games of its regular-season schedule.

The Bears squared their season ledger at 3-3 and improved to 2-1 in ACC play after their 25-20 victory over 10-point favorite Virginia Tech on Saturday.

The road ahead is no easier for first-year coach Tosh Lupoi’s club, and it begins Saturday night at Memorial Stadium when No. 21 Wake Forest pays a visit. 

Third-ranked Miami aside, the Demon Deacons (5-1, 3-1) are the hottest team in the ACC. They’re coming off their biggest road victory against NC State, 38-14, since 1943. And the week before that they undressed Stanford 57-3, the most lopsided victory against any opponent since 1941.

After Wake, Cal embarks on a stretch of three road games over four weeks, with trips to No. 24 SMU (4-1, 2-1), NC State (3-3, 1-2) and Virginia (4-2, 2-1). 

Cal closes at home vs. Stanford (2-4, 1-3) in the Big Game, then vs. Pitt (5-1, 2-1).  

Discounting Stanford — whose four defeats have come by a ghastly scoring margin of 195 to 23 — that’s five opponents with a combined record of 21-8, and three of them will require round-trip travel totaling nearly 12,500 miles.

But before we look further at the Bears’ second-half path, let’s review how things have gone so far and whether they are better so far under Lupoi than a year ago with Justin Wilcox at the helm.

The big picture is encouraging for Cal fans. Lupoi has recruited well, attendance has climbed and more vigorous support from the university administration bodes well. No one is doubting fooball general manager Ron Rivera's firing and hiring decisions.

Even so, Cal was 4-2 at this point last season and just 3-3 this fall.

The Bears were 3-3 the second half of the 2025 regular season, including impressive wins over Louisville and SMU. They also sustained an embarrassing 31-10 loss to a bad Stanford team in the Big Game, which prompted Wilcox’s dismissal.

A 35-31 defeat to Hawaii in the Hawaii Bowl left the Bears with a final record of 7-6. They’ll need to go 4-3 the rest of this season — including a bowl invite — just to match that record.

Let’s see how the two teams stack up at the halfway points of the regular season: 

 

Cal through 6 games in 2025 & 2026

Win-loss record

2025: 4-2, 1-1 in ACC

2026: 3-3, 2-1 in ACC

Comment: With the win over Virginia Tech, the current Bears avoided just their second six-game start of 2-4 or worse in 13 years.

Current win/loss streak

2025: Lost 1 (lost to Duke 45-21)

2026: Won 1 (beat Virginia Tech 25-20)

Comment: Cal faces a big challenge in its hopes of making it two in a row when No. 21 Wake Forest visits Saturday night.

Home attendance

2025: 38,898 in 3 home games

2026: 42,957 in 4 home games

Comment: The Bears have topped 40,000 three times and their opener vs. UCLA was a Memorial Stadium sellout — 54,283.

Points per game scored

2025: 24.2 points

2026: 26.7 points

Comment: The numbers vs. FBS foes are virtually identical — 22.0 last season, 22.2 this year. But scoring 49 points the past six quarters since Pat McCann took over play-calling duties is encouraging.

Points per game allowed

2025: 22.5 points 

2026: 24.5 points

Comment: Despite manpower issues, the Bears held the Hokies to 21 points under their season average.

Total yards per game

2025: 351.7 yards 

2026: 397.2 yards

Comment: The Bears are trending up the past two games, averaging 433.5 yards, despite shuffling quarterbacks.

Rushing yards per game

2025: 96.7 yards 

2026: 92.8 yards

Comment: The current regime has not been able to fix this. And it’s getting worse. The Bears are averaging just 79 rushing yards the past three games. Overall, they’re 134th in FBS.

Passing yards per game

2025: 225.0 yards

2026: 304.3 yards

Comment: The Bears hope QB Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele emerges from concussion protocol this week, but No. 2 Jackson Brousseau has been as good or better than could be expected, passing for 521 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions since replacing JKS the past game-and-half.

Total yards allowed 

2025: 328.9 yards 

2026: 367.5 yards 

Comment: The next category explains the drop-off this season.

Rushing yards allowed

2025: 123.0 yards 

2026: 175.0 yards

Comment: Excluding the Wagner game, the Bears have allowed nearly 5.3 yards per rush this season. Cal’s run defense ranks 109th nationally,

Passing yards allowed 

2025: 206.8 yards

2026: 192.5 yards

Comment: Factor in seven interceptions, and the Bears’ pass defense has generally been quite competent.

Field goals made/attempted

2025: 6 for 7

2026: 7 for 11

Comment: Towns McGough was 2 for 2 vs. the Hokies, but the Bears haven’t converted a field goal longer than 38 yards all season.

Turnover margin

2025: Minus-3 (7 TOs gains/10 TOs lost)

2026: Plus-1 (9 TOs gained/8 TOs lost)

Comment: The expected return of safety Kingston Lopa — who leads the nation with five interceptions — could provide a lift.

Penalty yards per game

2025: 56.7 yards

2026: 79.7 yards

Comment: Self-inflicted wounds have been a weekly issue. The Bears have racked up 251 yards in infractions the past two weeks and have four games of at least 80 yards in penalties.

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