Cal Only a Slight Underdog Against 15th-Ranked Virginia

With Virginia riding a six-game winning streak and being ranked No. 15 in the AP top-25 poll released Sunday, you might expect the Cavaliers to be heavy favorites in their game on Saturday afternoon at Cal, which has lost three of its past five games and has played a softer schedule than Virginia.

Virginia is favored but not by much. DraftKings’ opening line on Sunday morning makes Virginia a 4-point favorite over the Bears, while FanDuel has the Cavaliers as 4.5-point favorites over Cal.

---UPDATE: On Sunday night, FanDuel and ESPN BET Sportsbook both made Virginia only a 3.5-point favorite over Cal.---

Including Saturday afternoon’s home game against Virginia, Cal (5-3 overall, 2-2 in the ACC) has been an underdog in six of its first eight games this season, and Cal has a 3-2 record in the previous five games it was an underdog. That includes Friday’s double-overtime loss to Virginia Tech, which came into that game as a 6.5-point favorite and ended up winning by eight points (42-34).

Cal has not been more than a one-touchdown underdog in any game this season, with a 6.5-point spread against Virginia Tech and the 6.5-point spread against Boston College being the largest spreads in which Cal’s opponent was favored.

The Bears have not done as well as favorites. Besides the game against FCS opponent Texas Southern, which was not assigned a point spread by most betting sites, the only game in which Cal was favored was against San Diego State. Cal, then 3-0, was a 14-point favorite in that game on the road but ended up losing to the Aztecs 34-0.

Virginia meanwhile is 7-1 overall and 4-0 in the ACC, but the Cavaliers have not been blowing teams out. Three of the Cavaliers’ last four games have gone to overtime, and Virginia won the other game in that four-game span by just two points. But the Cavaliers prevailed in all four.

The Cavaliers were 11.5-point favorites against faltering North Carolina on Saturday, but ended up winning that road game by just inches, literally. Each team scored a touchdown on its first overtime possession, and North Carolina coach Bill Belichick opted to go all in after the Tar Heels scored their overtime touchdown to get within 17-16 by going for two points and the win.

Tar Heels running back Benjamin Hall came up about six inches short of the goal-line on the two-point try and Virginia survived for its sixth straight win.

NO. 16 VIRGINIA HOLDS ON TO BEAT NORTH CAROLINA IN AN OVERTIME THRILLER‼️ @UVAFootball pic.twitter.com/AKpzpAgycI
— ACC Network (@accnetwork) October 25, 2025

Five of Virginia’s wins have been decided by four points or fewer or in overtime, and the Cavaliers are 4-1 in those games.

Cal has played three games decided by four points or fewer or in overtime, and the Bears are 2-1 in those games. The one such loss came on Friday, and Cal had opportunities to win that game against Virginia Tech, despite giving up 357 rushing yards to the Hokies, the most rushing yards by a Cal opponent since Justin Wilcox became the Bears’ head coach prior to the 2017 season.

Virginia is third in the ACC in rushing offense, so the Cavaliers presumably will try to do what Virginia Tech did on the ground.

Cal is 3-1 at home this season, beating Texas Southern, Minnesota and North Carolina in Berkeley, and losing to Duke at home. Virginia is 2-1 on the road, losing to North Carolina State in a non-conference game and beating Louisville and North Carolina in a pair of overtime games.

Virginia's team must make the five-hour, 2,400-mile, cross-country trip to Berkeley for Saturday's game, but coast-to-coast travel has not been much of a factor in ACC games the past two seasons.

Starting time for Cal’s Saturday home game against Virginia is 12:45 p.m., making it the Bears’ third day game of the season. Cal won the first two, over Texas Southern and Boston College, although the Boston College game was a late afternoon start.

The point spread for Cal's game against Virginia is apt to change between now and Saturday. The point spread for Friday's game against Virginia Tech opened with the Hokies being 2.5-point favorites last Sunday, but by the time the game was played Virginia Tech was a 6.5-point favorite.

Cal needs one win in its final four games to become bowl-eligible for the third straight year, but at this point, Cal looks like the underdog in all four games.

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