Cal's Loss to Stanford Raises Questions About Bears' Football Future

Cal’s 31-10 loss to Stanford on Saturday opens a series of questions as the Bears head into their final regular-season game against SMU on Saturday.

The No. 1 question is the job status of Cal head coach Justin Wilcox now that the team has a 6-5 record with one scheduled game left.

That leads to the secondary question of how Cal administrators’ perspective on the importance of having a winning football program has changed under the new Cal leadership and the new college football environment.

Situated uncomfortably between those questions is whether freshman quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele will remain at Cal for the 2026 season and whether Cal’s decision on the head coach will affect his decision.

Wilcox’s job seemed secure after the Bears played their best game of the season in the November 8 road upset of Louisville, which was an 18.5-point favorite. That made Cal bowl-eligible for the third straight year and showed Cal’s capabilities.

However, that accomplishment was undone by the Bears’ showing in the Big Game. Three Cal fumbles led directly to 21 Stanford points, and Cal committed a season-high 13 penalties. It did not paint a pretty picture for Wilcox in this late-season contest against an archrival that will finish the season with a losing record.

Losing to Stanford does not have the same influence over the job security of a Cal head coach that some rivalry games do, such as Michigan vs. Ohio State. But it does matter, and Wilcox acknowledged after the game that Cal fans will be disappointed.

“I get it, if you’re not winning.” he said. “There should be expectations, everybody’s got them. We have them. The players and the coaches have them. And I feel their pain; I understand. We work really hard at this, the coaches and the players do. It’s not an excuse to go out and play like that.

“I understand their pain. I understand their frustration. We’re working as hard as we possibly can to play as good as we can, and we didn’t do that tonight.”

This is defensive tackle Aidan Keanaaina’s second season at Cal, and he recognizes the significance of losing the Big Game.

“It’s heartbreaking,” he said. “This is the Big Game. It’s very important to our team, to our coaches, and to our alumni. It’s a legacy game.”

Cal has never fired a football coach after his team qualified for a bowl game, and the only time it dismissed a coach following a winning season was in 1977 when Mike White was fired amid allegations of recruiting violations.

Things are different now, though.

New Cal Chancellor Rich Lyons has made it known that it’s important for Cal to have a winning football program, and Ron Rivera was hired to the new role of football general manager with the goal of creating winning football.

And football revenue is now a bigger deal than ever before. In this first year of revenue-sharing with athletes, Cal has allotted $14 million to pay players on this year’s football roster.

Donors are contributing a lot of that money, and they want returns for their investment. Their sentiment could impact the decision on Wilcox.

So the question is whether the result of Saturday’s game against SMU will influence whether Wilcox is back for 2026.

A strong performance against the Mustangs, who are 10-point favorites and tied for first place in the ACC, would guarantee a winning record and a 4-4 conference mark, and it would create a positive final impression heading into the postseason.

A lopsided loss would put Cal’s record at 6-6, and would mean a 16th straight season with a losing conference record.

It would also mean a disappointing end to the season and leave Wilcox’s record in his nine seasons as Cal’s head coach at 48-56.

There is another issue: Would Cal’s decision on whether to dismiss Wilcox affect Sagapolutele’s decision on whether to stay at Cal or transfer?

The mature, 19-year-old Sagapolutele is not the kind of person who would inject his opinion into the head coaching decision. However, Cal administrators may want to know whether that coaching decision will affect his future with Cal. Afterall, Sagapolutele is the Bears’ most valuable asset at the moment and is a reason for optimism for the Bears’ future if he stays in Berkeley.

Rivera, who will make the decision on Wilcox’s future, said last week he is “very confident” Sagapolutele will remain at Cal for the 2026 season. Rivera also said before the season that eight or nine wins would be considered a successful season for the Bears in 2025.

Looming in the background is the question of whether Cal could hire a new head coach who would represent an upgrade from Wilcox. Or would Cal make a change just to alter the narrative and promote renewed interest?

Whatever decision Cal administrators make will tell us a lot about their expectations.