Cal's Opener Against UCLA Is Intriguing, But Not the Final Word

The first game of a college football season is often a poor predictor of how the rest of the season will play out

Tosh Lupoi | Photo by Jake Curtis

Seaon-opening games can be deceiving.

Cal fans and college football analysts are apt to draw grand conclusions based on the results of the Bears’ season-opening game against UCLA on Saturday night at Cal's Memorial Stadium.

A Cal win will have people praising Tosh Lupoi as the man who will lead Cal to new heights while raising hopes that the Bears can be an ACC contender. If Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele has a big game in the process, Heisman Trophy talk was start.

A Cal loss will have some suggesting Lupoi is too inexperienced and the Bears have too many holes to be a conference contender this year. If Sagapolutele’s performance is subpar, there will be suggestions of a sophomore slump.

Either assessment would be premature, but observers have a need to make a snap judgment based on the only evidence at hand after a long offseason.

In fact, opening games are often poor indicators of how a team’s season will play out.

First of all, we have no idea how good that opening-game opponent is until several more games are played.  Is UCLA any good?  The game against Cal won’t tell us.

Plus, Cal has not yet developed a team identity, or determined which schemes or which lineups work best.  This early feeling-out period is even more pronounced in this transfer-portal era when so many players are newcomers.  That is particularly true for Cal and UCLA, which have completely new coaching staffs and numerous transfers in key positions.

Recent history tells us that results in season openers can be misleading. Three such examples involving ACC teams are presented here:

Clemson 2024

2024 opener: Clemson vs. Georgia

Result: Georgia dominated Clemson 34-3 and outgained the Tigers 447-188. Clemson quarterback Cade Kubnik passed for just 148 yards with no touchdowns and an interception.

Immediate Reaction: Clemson, picked to finish second in the ACC, is overrated and can't contend in the conference with Kubnik as its quarterback.

Eventual Reality: Clemson went 7-1 in conference play, won the ACC championship game and reached the College Football Playoff. Klubnik finished with 36 touchdown passes, which ranked third in the nation, with just six interceptions.

SMU 2024

2024 opener: SMU vs. Nevada

Result: SMU avoided a monumental upset against a team picked to finish last in the Mountain West Conference by overcoming a 24-13 deficit after three quarters and scoring the winning touchdown on a 34-yard, third-down  pass with 1:18 remaining in a 29-24 victory. Plus SMU came out of the game with a quarterback controversy.

Immediate Reaction: SMU, which had moved from the American Conference to the ACC in the offseason, will be overmatched in its new, higher-profile conference, especially since the Mustangs don't even know who their quarterback will be.

Eventual Reality: SMU settled on Kevin Jennings as its quarterback, and the Mustangs, picked to finish seventh in the preseason ACC poll, went 8-0 in conference games, winning their final two regular-season conference games by a combined margin of 71-14. They advanced to the College Football Playoff.

Florida State 2025

2025 opener: Florida State vs. Alabama

Result: Florida State beat No. 8 Alabama 31-17 behind quarterback Tommy Castellanos.

Immediate Reaction: Florida State is a national title contender, proving the Seminoles’ 2-10 record in 2024 was a fluke and Mike Norvell can still coach. Castellanos is an early contender for the Heisman Trophy. Meanwhile, Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer is ruining the program built to national prominence by Nick Saban.

Eventual Reality: Florida State finished with a 5-7 record overall and 2-6 in the ACC, and Norvell is back on the hot seat. Castellanos transferred to Texas Tech after the season. Alabama advanced to the College Football Playoff and beat Oklahoma in the first round before losing to eventual national champion Indiana. DeBoer is off the hook for another year.

It indicates that initial impressions can be misleading as teams sort out who they are and what they need to do to maximize their talent.

It’s why Cal defensive coordinator Michael Hutchings said this week he’s not considering the score in the opener; he just wants to see who is performing well, what mistakes are made and what schemes are working.

“Not even going to worry about the scoreboard,” he said.  “I think more so it’s just the process in how do we get to those results. If we do it the right way, if we check every box we’re supposed to check in each and every play. And then we check those boxes at the end of the game, and we go back and watch the tape. I don’t think we’re going to be results-oriented or results-driven; always going to be process-driven. Success and failure can both be imposters.”

Because both Cal and UCLA have made major changes in the coaching staff and player roster, preseason predictions about either team have been futile.  So it’s inevitable that fans and analysts will make bold judgments about Cal and UCLA after Saturday’s game because there’s finally something to judge.

Saturday’s game is a virtual tossup (UCLA is a 1.5-point favorite, according to FanDuel), so analysts will latch onto this first bit of evidence to make blanket assessments.

Don’t fall for it.

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