Recent History Suggests Cal Football Could Exceed Expectations in 2026

Cal was picked to finish 12th in the ACC in the preseason media poll, but if we have learned anything from the past two seasons, it’s that teams can far exceed preseason predictions.

Two examples in 2024 and two more in 2025 provide reasons that Cal could finish a lot higher in the ACC than the predicted 12th-place finish.

Example No. 1 – Indiana 2024

Indiana was picked to finish 17th of 18 Big Ten teams in the Cleveland.com media poll (the Big Ten does not provide a preseason poll). The Hoosiers finished with an 8-1 conference mark and qualified for the College Football Playoff.

Cal fans like to refer to Indiana’s surprising finish because it resembles what the Golden Bears face. Like Indiana in 2024, Cal has a new head coach this season (Curt Cignetti at Indiana in 2024 and Tosh Lupoi at Cal). And like Cal, Indiana had a recent history of mediocrity. The Hoosiers had a winning conference record in only two of the previous 30 seasons and was 3-24 in Big Ten games in 2021, 2022 and 2023 combined. Cal has not finished with a winning conference mark since 2009.

Example No. 2 – Arizona State 2024

The Sun Devils were picked to finish dead last (16th) in the 2024 preseason Big 12 poll, but they wound up winning the Big 12 championship.

They earned a No. 4 seed and a first-round bye in the College Football Playoff, and this all came in Kenny Dillingham’s second season as a head coach at any level after being the offensive coordinator at Oregon. It’s similar to Lupoi, who is in his first season as a head coach at any level after being a defensive coordinator Oregon.

Example No. 3 – Vanderbilt 2025

Vanderbilt was picked to finish 13th of 16 conference teams in the 2025 Southeastern Conference preseason media poll. The Commodores wound up 10-3 overall and 6-2 in the SEC, one game out of fifth place.

Vanderbilt had not finished with a winning conference record since 2012, but behind Heisman Trophy finalist quarterback Diego Pavia, the Commodores was ranked 15th in the final AP poll.

Cal is hoping to be lifted into the top-25 by its own talented quarterback, sophomore Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele.

Example No. 4 – Virginia 2025

Virginia was picked to finish 14th in the ACC in the 2025 preseason conference poll. The Cavaliers wound up with the best conference record at 7-1, a game ahead of every other ACC team, including Miami.

It was only the second time in 14 years that the Cavaliers finished with a winning conference record, and they produced their first 11-win season in school history.

The difference was Virginia’s success in close games. It won three ACC games that went into overtime, won a nonconference game by two points and its bowl game by six points.

Cal’s Chance to Surprise

With a head coach and two coordinators who have never had those roles before as well as having a lot of newcomers as key contributors, it’s difficult to predict what this Cal team will do.

But the ACC does not look particularly strong this season, and Cal does not face two of the three ACC teams ranked in the preseason AP top 25 (Miami and Louisville).

If things fall Cal’s way they could follow the pattern set by Indiana, Arizona, Vanderbilt and Virginia. After all none of those four teams got a single vote in the AP preseason national poll the year they made their breakthrough, while Cal got two voting points in this year’s preseason AP poll.

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