How Much Benefit Will Cal Get From Facing FCS-Level Wagner?

What’s should Cal fans expect from the Bears’ apparent mismatch Saturday afternoon at Memorial Stadium against Wagner College, an FCS opponent coming off an 87-3 defeat?

First-year coach Tosh Lupoi, as he explains in the video above, sees every practice and every game as an opportunity to show growth. This week won't be any different.

Beyond that, Cal fans should anticipate a victory. Almost guaranteed.

The evidence here is fairly substantial. Cal is 17-0 vs. FCS (or Division I-AA) opponents since it began regularly scheduling them in 2005, winning by an average of 44-15.

And Wagner is 0-8 all-time vs. Power 4 schools, outscored by an average margin of 56-5.

So why do we qualify this projection with “almost?”

Well, because it happens. Already this season five FCS teams have knocked off FBS foes. In 2025 it happened four times and in 2024 there were six examples.

None of those involved a Power 4 school being upset. But in 2023, Stanford lost 30-23 to Sacramento State, and in 2021 No. 20 Washington was stunned 13-7 by Montana.

Wagner, a small private college on Staten Island in New York, may not be up to the task of adding to that legacy of FCS upsets.

The Seahawks are 1-2, but their 84-point loss to James Madison on Saturday was a doozy. JMU, which qualified for the College Football Playoff a year ago, returned three punts for touchdowns to tie an NCAA record and piled up 588 yards of offense in barely 22 minutes of possession.

We thought it was worth checking out Cal’s past matchups vs. FCS foes to see if they provided any patterns that are useful in evaluating the value of those games.

Three previous games stand out:

2011: Cal 63, Presbyterian 12

The game was played at the Giants’ AT&T Park in San Francisco while Memorial Stadium was undergoing renovations. The Bears led 28-0 early in the second quarter and wound up outgaining the Blue Hose 581 yards to 48. Zach Maynard threw three touchdown passes and Presbyterian scored its only TDs on returns of an interception and a punt.

The big picture: The victory improved the Bears to 3-0, but they dropped their next three games — to Washington, Oregon and USC — and went on to finish the season 7-6.

2013: Cal 37, Portland State 30

Sonny Dykes’ first Cal team prevailed in the closest an FCS team has come to knocking off the Bears. Cal didn’t take the lead for good until freshman Jared Goff’s 75-yard TD strike to Richard Rodgers with 7:58 left to cap a 485-yard passing effort in his second college game.

The big picture: The outcome had no impact on Cal’s worst season ever, a 1-11 campaign in which the Bears allowed nine opponents to score at least 40 points. Mercifully, the season ended after a record-worst 63-13 Big Game defeat at Stanford.

2015: Cal 73, Grambling State 14

Dykes had things rolling by Goff’s junior season, his last before being drafted No. 1 overall. Grambling visited for the opener and Cal led 35-0 in the first quarter and 66-0 before the end of the third. Goff and Kenny Lawler connected for three TDs and the Bears rolled up 656 yards of offense.

The big picture: Cal started the season 5-0, including a 45-44 victory vs. Texas and a 30-24 win over Washington — both on the road. But big dreams dissolved after four straight defeats, although the Bears finished with a solid 8-5 record after a 55-36 win over Air Force in the Armed Forces Bowl.

Our conclusion is that none of these three games had any real impact on how Cal fared the rest of those seasons. They added to the win total, but otherwise were inconsequential.

So what should we expect on Saturday when Wagner visits?

A Cal victory, for sure. Probably by a lopsided margin.

And if we’re lucky, our first glimpse of backup quarterbacks EJ Caminong and Jackson Brousseau, in whichever order coach Tosh Lupoi chooses to utilize them.

The only way this game could become memorable would be under circumstances Cal fans don’t want to consider, but are unlikely.

Here are scores of all of Cal's games against FCS (or Division I-AA) opponents since 2005:

2005: Cal 41, Sacramento State 3

2006: Cal 42, Portland State 16

2009: Cal 59, Eastern Washington 7

2010: Cal 52, UC Davis 3

2011: Cal 63, Presbyterian 12

2012: Cal 50, Southern Utah 31

2013: Cal 37, Portland State 30

2014: Cal 55, Sacramento State 14

2015: Cal 73, Grambling State 14

2017: Cal 33, Weber State 20

2018: Cal 45, Idaho State 23

2019: Cal 27, UC Davis 13

2021: Cal 42, Sacramento State 30

2022: Cal 34, UC Davis 13

2023: Cal 31, Idaho 17

2024: Cal 31, UC Davis 13

2025: Cal 35, Texas Southern 3

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