What It Would Take for Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele to Win the Heisman

Occasionally Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele’s name will come up in discussions about 2026 Heisman Trophy contenders, but the Cal quarterback is far from a favorite.

FanDuel lists his odds to win the Heisman at 65-to-1, while DraftKings has him at 80-to-1. At least 20 players have shorter odds than that.

However, we have seen in recent years that preseason odds mean little when it comes to determining a Heisman winner. DeVonta Smith in 2020 and Lamar Jackson in 2016 both started the season at 100-to-1 before winning the Heisman, and Joe Burrow had preseason Heisman odds of 200-to-1 before capturing the top prize in 2019.

As a quarterback Sagapolutele has a head start on any position players, because 21 of the past 26 Heisman winners have been quarterbacks.

Obviously, a lot of things would have to fall into place for Sagapolutele to be a Heisman contender this season as a sophomore.

Here are the things that would have to happen for Sagapolutele to have a chance:

Cal Must Win at Least Nine Games

This is the basic prerequisite before we even talk about Sagapolutele’s statistics and performance.

Every Heisman winner this century played on a team that won at least nine games before the Heisman voting took place (i.e., before bowl games), and most won more than nine.

Long gone are the days when Steve Owens could win the 1969 Heisman when his Oklahoma team went 6-4 or Notre Dame’s Paul Hornung could take the prize in 1956 for an Irish team that went 2-8..

The nine-win minimum is probably the toughest requirement that Cal and Sagapolutele must meet. The Bears were picked to finish 12th in the ACC, and FanDuel puts the Bears win total at 6.5, which suggests a 6-6 or 7-5 regular season. That would not be good enough.

Cal seems to have weapons at the skill positions on offense, so it’s possible Cal will score a lot of points, but with a new head coach, new offensive and defensive coordinators, many new starters and many questions it’s difficult to predict how Cal will fare this season.

Lifting a Program

Baylor’s Robert Griffin III won the 2011 Heisman Trophy while TCU’s Max Duggan and Vanderbilt’s Diego Pavia finished second in the Heisman voting in 2022 and 2025, respectively, because they lifted a downtrodden program to national prominence.

If Sagapolutele is seen as the reason Cal beats the preseason predictions and pushes the Golden Bears to a top-15 ranking in the AP poll, he might gain consideration.

Heisman voters love the underdog story.

Late-Season Superlatives

The Heisman Trophy competition does not even begin until the second-half of the season. As long as Sagapolutele is not horrible through the first six games, he can become a contender with standout performances in Cal victories late in the season.

If he, say, leads an upset of SMU in Dallas in the eighth game of the season, he might get some Heisman mention if that improves the Bears’ record to 6-2.

Big games against Stanford and Pittsburgh in Cal’s final two games before the Heisman voting ends on December 7 could put Sagapolutele’s name at the forefront of voters’ minds. (Presumably they would at least be able to spell his name at that point.)

Last impressions have a major influence on Heisman voters.

Memorable Highlights

Heisman voters need images that stick in their heads, and the video highlights that ESPN shows must portray Sagapolutele doing amazing things.

Sometimes just a single highlight can do the trick. In 2009, Stanford lost to Cal in the next-to-last game to put Stanford’s record at 7-4. But one play in that game showing Cardinal running back Toby Gerhart bowling over tacklers was shown over and over on ESPN and may have been the chief reason Gerhart was the Heisman Trophy runnerup that year.

Charles Woodson’s spectacular interception against Michigan State was a major reason Woodson, primarily a defensive player, wound up with the Heisman in 1997.

The Numbers

Statistics do matter.

Joe Burrow won in 2019 by an overwhelming margin in large part because of his amazing numbers, setting an NCAA record with 60 touchdown passes while throwing just six interceptions.

DeVonta Smith became one of the few wide receivers to win the award in 2020 because his Alabama team was undefeated but also because he led the nation in receptions (117), receiving yards (1,856) and receiving touchdowns (23).

Sagapolutele would need those kind of wow numbers to have a shot.

Bottom Line

The possibility of Sagapolutele and Cal satisfying all those conditions is tiny. And, of course, Sagapolutele would have stay healthy all season.

Cal is just hoping he plays all 12 regular-season games and shows progress from his promising freshman season under new head coach Tosh Lupoi and new offensive coordinator Jordan Somerville.

So don’t bet on Sagapoutele winning the award or even being among the finalists this year.

But in 2027 . . .

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