Surprisingly Cal Is a Slight Favorite Over UNLV in LA Bowl

Let’s take a look at the two teams that will play in the December 18 LA Bowl – Cal and UNLV -- and try to determine which team should be favored.

Cal is 6-6 and was 2-6 in ACC play. The Bears were not among the 36 teams that received votes in the final AP regular-season poll this week or among the 37 teams that received votes in the final regular-season coaches poll. In its final regular-season game, Cal suffered a 38-6 road loss to SMU, which is ranked 10th in the AP poll and the College Football Playoff rankings and is seeded 11th in the 12-team national playoffs. (Cal was without quarterback Fernando Mendoza in the SMU game.)

UNLV is 10-3 and was 6-1 in the Mountain West Conference. The Rebels are ranked No. 24 in the AP poll, the coaches poll and the College Football Playoff rankings. UNLV lost the conference championship game 21-7 to Boise State, which is ranked No. 8 in both the AP and coaches polls and No. 9 in the CFP rankings.

Common opponents? There are three: Syracuse, San Diego State and Oregon State.

Both teams won at home by 21 points against San Diego Stage: UNLV won 41-20, and Cal won 31-10.

Both teams beat Oregon State: UNLV beat the Beavers 33-25 on the road, while Cal defeated Oregon State 44-7 in Berkeley.

Both teams lost to Syracuse at home: UNLV lost to Syracuse 44-41 in overtime after the Orange scored the tying touchdown with 23 seconds left in the fourth quarter, and Cal lost to Syracuse 33-25 when Cal scored its final touchdown with 1:01 remaining.

UNLV’s only other losses besides the defeat against Syracuse were two losses to Boise State, one by five points and the other by 14 points, both on Boise State’s home field. Cal had a loss to Florida State, which was 0-10 in its other games against FBS opponents.

So guess which team is favored in the LA Bowl.

Surprisingly all reputable betting sites we could find have Cal as a 2.5-point favorite as of Monday. One explanation is that UNLV will be without its head coach, Barry Odom, who on Sunday was hired as Purdue’s head coach. Wide receivers coach Del Alexander were serve as the Rebels interim head coach for the LA Bowl

Perhaps Cal's presence in a Power Four conference versus UNLV's membership in a Group of Five conference makes a difference to gamblers.

Most likely is the fact that oddsmakers at betting sites simply want bets to be placed evenly on both sides of this point spread. The point spread is not really an indication of which teams the oddmakers expect to win or by how much. The point spread is set at a number that will bring equal amounts of money bet on each team. So if a lot of money is bet on UNLV over the coming days, the point spread will shrink.

It’s also unclear which players from either team might opt out of the bowl game or enter the transfer portal before the LA Bowl. UNLV has already had one starter, cornerback Tony Grimes, enter the transfer portal.

It will be interesting to see how the point spread changes between now and the Wednesday, December 18, LA Bowl at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, Calif.

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