What Issues Will Determine Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele’s Success in 2026?

What will it take for Cal sophomore Jaron-Keawe Sagapolu to be one of the 10 best quarterbacks in the county in 2026?

On3 thinks he’ll reach that level, ranking him as the 66th-best player overall in 2026 and the ninth-best quarterback, with this comment:

Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele is the highest-ranked second-year slinger in the impact rankings. He has a cannon and routinely wins in tight windows with his big arm and noteworthy anticipation. Considering one of his favorite targets last year was 5-foot-7, he’s bound to put up more statistically pleasing figures with Cal adding the likes of Ian Strong, Chase Hendricks and Dorian Thomas, all of whom are top 150 On3 transfer portal players.

The only ACC quarterback ranked ahead of Sagapolutele is Miami’s Darian Mensah.

But these are merely projections. Eight variables will determine Sagapolutele’s success in 2026?

Sagapolutele’s Progress

Quarterbacks, especially young quarterbacks, are expected to improve from one season to the next. Although Sagapolutele clearly has talent and had an impressive freshman season, he was far from perfect. He was not named to the first-, second- or third-team all-ACC teams and wasn’t one of the two other ACC quarterbacks given honorable mention. That suggests that at least five ACC quarterbacks were considered better than Sagapolutele last season.

Sagapolutele has been given high grades for his ability to take in coaching information and apply it during a game, but his ability to read defenses and make good decisions must be better that it was in 2025.

Pass Protection

Sagapolutele has some maneuverability, especially within the pocket, but he does not have the mobility to avoid a strong pass rush. Cal’s protection needs to be better than it was last year when it gave up 32 sacks. The Bears brought in five offensive linemen through the transfer portal in the offseason, hoping to give Sagapolutele the time he needs.

Running Game

Cal relied on Sagapolutele’s arm for most of its offense last season, and opposing defenses knew it. The Bears ranked 133rd of 134 FBS schools in rushing offense last season, and that inability to run the ball put pressure on Cal’s passing game and allowed defenses to focus on the pass rush.

The addition of transfer running backs Adam Mohammed (from Washington) and Carter Vargas (from UC Davis) as well as the additions on the offensive line should improve the Bears’ running game, but we’ll see.

New Offense/Play-Calling

Cal will be operating under a pro-style offense under offensive coordinator Jordan Somerville, and it’s different from what Cal ran last year under Bryan Harsin. How well Sagapolutele adjusts to the new offense and how well that offense fits his skills will determine how effective he is in it.

Somerville has received praise for his football acumen, but he is just 30 years old and has never been an offensive coordinator or play-caller. How he structures the offense and what plays he calls will have a significant effect on Sagapolutele’s success.

Tosh Lupoi kept Nick Rolovich on the Cal staff as a quarterbacks coach, and he seems to have a good rapport with Sagapolutele, which should help.

Defense

Cal lost a lot of talent from a defense that ranked in the middle of the ACC in total defense and scoring defense last season. If opponents are able to run up and down the field and control the ball for long stretches, it will minimize Sagapolutele’s time on the field and put pressure on him to be productive on every offensive possession. An effective Cal defense will relieve a lot of pressure on Sagapolutele and give him more options.

Receiving Talent

Cal seems to have added quality talent in wide receivers Ian Strong (from Rutgers) and Chase Hendricks (from Ohio) as well as tight end Dorian Thomas (from New Mexico), all of whom had big seasons in 2025.

However, Hendricks and Thomas did not do their work against Power Four Conference competition, and Rutgers was not particularly good, going 2-7 in the Big Ten. All indications are that they provide Sagapolutele with outstanding targets, but we’ll see.

Handling Expectations

The expectations for Sagapolutele are enormous, and the hopes for Cal’s success rest with him and his left arm. He even has his own line of clothing at Cal. That’s a lot of pressure, although Sagapolutele seems to have the personality to handle it. He impressed the media last season with his honest answers and self-appraisal even after poor performances.

No one knew exactly what to expect from Sagapolutele last season as a freshman, so the pressure was minimal. It’s completely different this season with everyone expecting him to be great every time out.

Early-Season Success

How Cal and Sagapolutele perform in the first three or four games will set the standard and confidence level for the season. A quarterback’s confidence may be his most important quality.

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