What Would Be Considered a Successful Season for Cal’s Offense?

Cal seems to have sufficient talent at quarterback (Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele), receiver (Ian Strong, Chase Hendricks, Dorian Thomas, Mazon Mini) and running back (Adam Mohammed) to have a break out season on offense.

But there are questions, making it difficult to determine what should constitute success on Cal’s offense in 2026.

Would scoring 30 points a game be enough to say this Cal offense matched or exceeded its potential? Would finishing in the top five in the ACC in scoring suggest offensive success?

We’ll make our assessment on what would constitute success for Cal’s offense, but first we need to establish historical context and factors to consider.

Obviously, what Cal does defensively will factor into what the offense needs to do for Cal to win at least eight games, which we considered would define a good 2026 season.

However, the potential of the offense is the focus here, and with all the questions surrounding Cal’s defense, it seems the Bears’ offense must rank higher in the ACC than their defense for just the second time in 10 years.

Offense has not been Cal’s strong suit in recent years. In fact the Bears have not finished in the top half of its conference (ACC or Pac-12) in scoring since 2016.

Cal’s best teams over the past 40 years have had outstanding offenses with standouts at skill positions. Cal’s 8-5 season in 2015 ranked second in the Pac-12 in scoring (37.9 points) with Jared Goff in his final season. The Bears’ 10-2 squad in 2004 was second in the conference in scoring at 36.8 points with Aaron Rodgers running the show.

Cal’s 2006 team that tied for the Pac-10 title, led the conference in scoring at 32.8 points. And the Bears’ 10-2 team in 1991 was second in the Pac-10 in scoring (36.9 points) with standouts at quarterback (Mike Pawlawski) running back (Russell White) and the offensive line.

Let’s look at the factors that will determine Cal’s offensive success in 2026:

The Optimism – Skill Positions

With Sagapolutele at quarterback after an outstanding freshman season, Strong, Hendricks, Thomas and Mini as receivers after standout seasons in 2025, and Mohammad at running back after he gained 523 yards as a backup at Washington last year, Cal seems to have all the weapons it needs to score points.

Question 1 – Offensive Line

Cal has not had an effective offensive line in years, and the fact that the Bears yielded 32 sacks in 2026 and finished 133rd of 134 FBS school in rushing can attest to that.

However, the offensive line should be improved, if only incrementally, with the return of several starters and the presence of offensive line coach Famika Anae.

Cal won’t be able to march downfield by blowing defenders off the line, but the offensive line should be good enough to let the skill position players show what they can do.

Question 2 – Offensive Coordinator

For all we know new offensive coordinator Jordan Somerville may turn out to be offensive genius. But he is just 30 years old and has never been a coordinator at any level.

So we just don’t know whether he can put together game plans that maximize his players’ talent and whether his play-calling will fit situations effectively.

Will his inexperience as a coordinator become apparent, or will his offensive acumen show itself immediately?

Somerville’s ability to put together a consistently effective offense is a key variable to the Bears’ offensive success.

The Schedule

None of Cal’s three nonconference opponents are projected to have particularly strong defenses after struggling on that side of the ball last season. So Cal should be able move the ball against UCLA, UNLV and Wagner.

The top two defensive teams in the ACC appear to be Miami and Clemson. Cal does not face Miami this season, and the Bears play Clemson in Berkeley in a Friday night game (September 25).

The schedule seems to favor Cal’s offense.

The Bottom Line

Finishing in the lower half of the ACC in scoring offense (outside the top eight) would be considered a failure. Averaging fewer than 28 points a game would be insufficient production considering the talent available.

Averaging between 28 and 32 points and finishing ranked between fifth and eighth in the ACC in scoring offense would be acceptable and presumably allow Cal to get a bowl berth.

However, for Cal’s offense to be considered a success in 2026, it needs to average more than 32 points and wind up ranked among the top four in the ACC in scoring. The fact that Cal has not achieved either of those offensive marks in any of the past nine season suggests the bar has been set high for Cal’s 2026 offense.

Then there is the optimism of Cal tight end Dorian Thomas, who said recently, “We’re going to put up at least 50 a game this year.”

Yes, that would constitute a successful season for the Cal offense.

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