Cal 2022 Football Preview -- Part 4: Best and Worst Case Scenarios

So now we try to provide context to all we have discussed in our series of stories previewing the 2022 Cal Golden Bears.

We have dissected their strengths and weaknesses, projected their star players (and those who could ascend to that status) and posed legitimate questions they must answer.

*** Justin Wilcox discusses what he expects from his team in the video atop this story.

* Fourth in a series of stories previewing the 2022 Cal Golden Bears. Part 1: Strengths and weaknesses. Part 2: Bears' stars. Part 3: 10 questions

What does it mean?

Is the program that hasn’t enjoyed a winning conference record since 2009 doomed to stay on that path of mediocrity?

Will the Bears fail to reach the postseason for a third straight season?

Or might all their new pieces fit seamlessly, leading to an unexpectedly successful run?

We’re not going to bother evaluating a potential middle-of-the-road performance. That would simply mean some of it works, some of it doesn’t, and the Bears respond by winning and losing along predictable lines.

Instead, we will explore the best-case scenario, but also the flip side.

We’ll start with the latter.

Worst-Case Scenario: 3-9

The Bears have enough talent to win three games — probably four — regardless of what else befalls them.

They should start the season 2-0, with UC Davis and UNLV first up on the schedule. The Bears are 10-0 all-time vs. the FCS Aggies and the Rebels have one winning season in the past 21 years. They were a combined 2-16 in 2020 and ’21.

Likewise, there will be no excuse for not winning at home vs. Arizona or on the road vs. Colorado. As our preseason SI Pac-12 Football Power Rankings emphasized, these are the two worst teams in the conference.

But any team can suffer an ill-timed hiccup, and this is our worst-case scenario, so we’ll chalk up one ghastly defeat among these four.

Could they possibly lose the other eight? Quite unlikely, but none of them is close to an automatic victory: At Notre Dame, at Washington State, vs, Washington, vs. Oregon, at USC, at Oregon State, vs. Stanford, vs. UCLA.

What has to happen for things go south for the Bears?

Their offensive line could fail to mesh, or their already iffy depth get tested if the wrong starter gets nicked up.

And if that happens, transfer quarterback Jack Plummer gets a half-second less time to find his target and running game stalls.

Defensively, without injured star Brett Johnson, we don’t know how well a young line will hold up against a strong running team and we aren’t sure where the pass rush comes from.

If one or more of these scenarios emerges as reality the road becomes more difficult for the Bears, especially when the schedule steers uphill over the final six weeks.

Best-Case Scenario: 9-3

If this sounds like a reach, let me tell you I believe 9-3 is more likely than 3-9. But we concede it requires a lot falling into place. A lot.

Plummer has to be the best version of himself, an accurate big arm who finds the likes of Jeremiah Hunter and J.Michael Sturdivant on passes down the field.

The O-line has to come together and stay healthy, allowing Damien Moore to dash through running lanes. And speedy freshman Jaydn Ott needs to begin to fulfill the promise the coaching staff sees in him as a potential game-breaker when handed or thrown the ball.

The defense must continue to be the stout unit it’s been most of the time under Justin Wilcox. That starts with a performance from safety Daniel Scott and cornerback Lu-Magia Hearns that puts the secondary among the elite in the Pac-12.

Cal’s inside linebackers, led by Jackson Sirmon and Femi Oladejo, must have dominant seasons, which is no more than they are expected to deliver. And someone — maybe UCLA transfer Odua Isibor — must emerge as a pass-rush force, filling the void left by departed Cameron Goode.

So how to the Bears get to nine wins? Not easily. We’ll give ‘em the four “easy” ones, but that still leaves them five short.

We go next to four remaining home games: Oregon, UW, Stanford and UCLA. Two or three of those teams might be real good but Cal needs to win three of four to keep the goal of nine victories afloat.

That still leaves the Bears in need of three more wins, right?

A big one looms Oct. 1 at Washington State. Always good to visit the Palouse before winter arrives. A victory against the Cougars could give Cal a 5-1 start.

We’re going to give ‘em Oregon State in Corvallis.

Then it comes down to this: A win at Notre Dame or a win at USC to reach nine victories. Seriously?

The Bears, as Cal fans know, have never beaten the Fighting Irish. OK, they’ve played just four times, and not since LBJ was president. Still, Notre Dame outscored the Bears 138-27 in those games and carries a No. 5 AP ranking into the season.

But what if . . . Ohio State pummels the Irish into submission on Saturday at Columbus, and Notre Dame is left staggering, unsure of itself, in need of counseling?

OK, that may be overstating the potential fallout.

And the Trojans? Like Notre Dame, they have a new coach. Unlike Notre Dame, they have experienced losing to the Bears. As in last season. Even in L.A. As in their most recent meeting at the Coliseum in 2018.

So if we’re talking best-case, projecting a win over USC is certainly not a foray into science fiction.

So there you have it: a 3-9 fiasco or a 9-3 celebration?

Right. Probably somewhere in between.

Cover photo of Cal's Memorial Stadium courtesy of Cal Athletics

Follow Jeff Faraudo of Cal Sports Report on Twitter: @jefffaraudo