Will Aaron Rodgers' Declining 'Likability' Affect His MVP Chances?
Voting for the NFL Most Valuable Player award ends today (Friday), and although oddsmakers make former Cal star Aaron Rodgers a heavy favorite to win the award for the fourth time, there is a lingering sentiment that growing dislike of the Packers quarterback could be a factor in the voting.
Rodgers was selected as the first-team AP All-Pro quarterback, it was announced Friday, so that may clear the way for his MVP selection, but nothing is certain when human beings are doing the voting. And some of those human being may not like Rodgers. (Former Cal punter Bryan Anger was a second-team All-Pro pick.)
A Morning Consult pre-playoff survey indicated that Rodgers is much less liked than he was a year ago. Last year, Rodgers ranked as the third-most liked skill-position player in the NFL., with a strong grade of 32, behind only Drew Brees and Patrick Mahomes.
But this year, the survey shows that Rodgers is not even among the 20 most-liked skill-position players in the NFL. His grade slipped to 15, a precipitous drop. Presumably that is a result of Rodgers' offseason request to be traded and his comments this season regarding why he was not vaccinated.
Here is what Morning Colsult said about Rodgers:
Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who ranked just behind Brees and Mahomes in last season’s survey, has seen his net favorability rating decline precipitously — from 32 last season to 15 this season — due to controversy surrounding his vaccination status against COVID-19. Rodgers told the media during the offseason that he was “inoculated” against the virus, but it was later revealed when he tested positive during the season that he had never received the vaccine. State Farm, Rodgers’ most prominent sponsor, maintained its relationship with the three-time league MVP while scaling back the frequency of ads featuring him. Several smaller brands cut ties with him altogether.
Will MVP voters -- who have human emotions and make judgments about players -- be affected by their personal opinion of Rodgers? Let's face it, it's hard not to bring personal feelings into these kind of voting issues.
The 50 media members who vote for the Associated Press MVP award (which is considered the "official" MVP award) can decide for themselves what elements should be considered in the voting. At least one voter -- Hub Arkush, editor of Pro Football Weekly -- has said he won't vote for Rodgers because of his off-field behavior and comments. He said he knows of other voters who feel the same way.
Rodgers called Arkush a "bum" and requested that he not be allowed to vote for the MVP.
AP is not going to throw out Arkush's vote.
“We’re not gonna throw out his ballot,” Barry Wilner, the Associated Press’ national pro football writer who has overseen the voting process for NFL awards for about 30 years, told the Chicago Sun-Times. “For MVP, because the word ‘valuable’ is judgmental, it would be unfair and unwise for us to set any parameters for that award. We can’t tell people how to think about what they consider most valuable.”
To the oddsmakers, this is a done deal, with Rodgers winning by a landslide. Tampa Bay quarterback Tom Brady, who was named the second-team All-Pro quarterback on Friday, is the only player within shouting distance of Rodgers, according to their odds.
DraftKings and BetMGM both place Rodgers' odds at -500 (or 1-to-5) and Brady at +375 (or about 4-to-1), with no other player close. All betting sites have similar odds, so it's a two-man race between Rodgers and Brady, with Rodgers being the clear leader.
But the question remains: Will personal feelings of MVP voters buck the odds?
CBS Sports had a panel of 10 experts vote for their choice for MVP, and Rodgers won, but it was not an overwhelming victory.
Rodgers got seven first-place votes, and 45 voting points.
Brady got two first-place votes and 40 voting points.
Cooper Kupp was a distant third with one first-place vote and 20 voting points.
Again it appears Brady is the only player who can prevent Rodgers from rolling to a second straight MVP victory.
Bill Barnwell of ESPN.com picked Rodgers as his first-team All-Pro quarterback with Brady on his second team.
But three respected sites place Brady higher than Rodgers when ranking quarterbacks.
We noted in a story Thursday that ESPN.com placed Rodgers third in a ranking of the 14 playoff quarterbacks, with Patrick Mahomes first an Brady second.
In a similar ranking of the playoff quarterbacks, The Sporting News put Brady first and Rodgers second.
NFL.com ranked the starting quarterback of all 32 teams at the end of the regular season, and it placed Brady No. 1 and Rodgers' No. 2. It provided this explanation:
Brady's impressive final three weeks edge him ahead of Rodgers for the regular season. Rodgers will probably win MVP (again), but recency bias is a factor there. Brady was considerably better in the season's first half. TD-to-INT ratio is an overrated stat to separate them because both quarterbacks are so careful, finishing second (Brady) and third (Rodgers) in Pro Football Focus' turnover-worthy play percentage. Brady dropped back to pass 173 more times than Rodgers without sacrificing much efficiency and didn't miss a game. Both are well below Rodgers' 2020 level and choosing between the two is splitting hairs with no wrong answer. Volume is a fine tiebreaker!
It seems Rodgers is not the overwhelming choice he was last season, when his stats were more impressive than they are this season. Rodgers remains the clear favorite, but Brady conceivably could win the MVP if the personal feelings about Rodgers affect the ballots of a sufficient number of MVP voters.
There is also the thought that media members like Rodgers' honesty when answering questions and they appreciate his habit of responding at length to anything the media throws at him. This personal-favoritism issue can run both ways in this case.
We will leave you with these statistics comparing Rodgers and Brady in the 2021 regular season.
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Aaron Rodgers:
Completion percentage: 68.9% (3rd in the NFL)
Passing yards per game: 257.2 (11th in the NFL)
Touchdown passes: 37 (4th in the NFL)
Interceptions: 4 (best among QBs who played at least 12 games)
Passer rating: 111.9 (1st in NFL)
Total Quarterback Rating (QBR): 68.8 (1st in NFL)
Packers' record when Rodgers plays more than one half: 13-2
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Tom Brady
Completion percentage: 67.5% (9th in the NFL)
Passing yards per game: 312.7 (1st in the NFL)
Touchdown passes: 43 (1st in the NFL)
Interceptions: 12 (16th-best among quarterbacks who played at least 12 games)
Passer rating: 102.1 (8th in the NFL)
Total Quarterback Rating (QBR): 68.5 (2nd in the NFL)
Buccaneers' record when Brady plays more than one half: 13-4
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Although MVP voting is over, we won't know who won the MVP until the announcement of the winner is made on Feb. 12, one day before the Super Bowl.
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Cover photo of Aaron Rodgers by Benny Sieu, USA TODAY Sports
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Follow Jake Curtis of Cal Sports Report on Twitter: @jakecurtis53
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