ESPN Ranks All 14 NFL Playoff Quarterbacks; Aaron Rodgers Is Not No. 1

ESPN.com ranked all 14 quarterbacks who will play in the NFL postseason, and even though former Cal star Aaron Rodgers is a good bet to win the NFL MVP award for the second straight season, he is not ranked as the top quarterback in the playoffs.

Rodgers is only No. 3.

Granted this is a strong group, as evidenced by the fact that a future Hall of Famer is ranked No. 14. But I would put Rodgers higher.

Here is ESPN.com's description of its methodology:

To rank the QBs, I'm relying on a variety of advanced metrics. Note that I am are considering these quarterbacks in a vacuum: Imagine they had the same team around them and were facing the same set of opponents. First and foremost, Total QBR -- which is ESPN's expected points added-based rate stat that accounts for important context when evaluating efficiency. Straight up EPA, metrics from NFL Next Gen Stats (most notably, completion percentage over expectation, or CPOE) and our predictive QB EPA rating (an input into ESPN's Football Power Index) were all consulted as well. Plus, there's a dash of my own judgment, of course.

This is interesting because Rodgers leads the NFL in QBR at 68.8. Patrick Mahomes is only fifth in that metric, which ESPN.com claims to value so highly.

Here is the ESPN.com ranking of playoff quarterbacks, with its comments about Rodgers included.

1. Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs

2. Tom Brady, Bucaneers, Buccaneers.

3. Aaron Rodgers

Season at a glance:

Rodgers actually had a slight dip from 2020 -- he won NFL MVP, what did you expect? -- but he's right back in the MVP conversation again. I would personally give the award to Brady, but there's no denying that Rodgers was exceptional. He led the league in QBR (68.8) and adjusted net yards per attempt (8.0), and he had the lowest interception rate (0.8%).

Strength:

Avoiding turnovers. Rodgers makes some stellar plays, but he's truly elite at limiting the big negatives. He threw just four interceptions and ranked third among quarterbacks in fumbles per dropback. Another strength is quick passing. Rodgers led all quarterbacks in both EPA per dropback and total EPA generated on passes thrown in under 2.5 seconds.

Weakness:

This is less of a weakness and more context about the degree of difficulty Rodgers faces relative to his peers: He faced light boxes of six defenders or fewer -- which are harder to throw against -- at a lower rate (66% of time) compared to Brady (74%) and Mahomes (88%). Similarly, he faced heavy boxes of eight defenders or more -- which are easier to throw against -- 11% of the time, much more than Brady (6%) or Mahomes (3%).

What's at stake for Rodgers (via Packers reporter Rob Demovsky):

Rodgers' future with the Packers. While it might not be dependent on what happens in this postseason, another exit before the Super Bowl might nudge him toward finishing his career elsewhere. If the Packers don't get to the Super Bowl, perhaps Rodgers -- whose

contract was reworked last summer

-- will decide he has accomplished all he can in Green Bay.

4. Josh Allen, Bills

5. Joe Burrow, Bengals

6. Kyle Murray, Cardinals

7. Dak Prescott, Cowboys

8. Matthew Stafford, Rams

9. Ryan Tannehill, Titans

10. Derek Carr, Raiders

11. Jimmy Garoppolo, 49ers

12. Mac Jones, Patriots

13. Jalen Hurts, Eagles

14. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers

Click here for a story on whether Aaron Rodgers' declining popularity will affect his MVP chances.

Cover photo of Aaron Rodgers by Cary Edmondson, USA TODAY Sports

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