Aaron Rodgers Passes Patrick Mahomes as No. 1 QB in ESPN Poll of Experts
Former Cal star Aaron Rodgers was only the No. 3-ranked NFL quarterback in ESPN’s poll of experts two years ago and was No. 2 last year, but he moved up to the top spot this year.
ESPN surveyed more than 50 league executives, coaches, scouts and players to compile its rankings of the top 10 players at each position as a preview to the 2022 season, and this week it released its rankings of the top 10 quarterbacks in the NFL.
Rodgers has been as low as No. 5 in past ESPN quarterbacks rankings. Two years ago, Mahomes was No. 1 and Wilson No. 2, ahead of Rodgers at No. 3. Last summer, even after he had won his third MVP in 2020, Rodgers was No. 2, behind Mahomes. But Rodgers, who will turn 39 before the 2022 season is over, passed Mahomes in this year’s survey.
Here are ESPN's top 10 quarterbacks heading into 2022 season, based on its survey of experts:
1. Aaron Rodgers
2. Patrick Mahomes
3. Josh Allen
4. Tom Brady
5. Joe Burrow
6. Matthew Stafford
7. Justin Herbert
8. Russell Wilson
9. Deshaun Watson
10. Dak Prescott
Here is what ESPN said about Rodgers:
1. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
Highest ranking: 1 | Lowest ranking: 5
Age: 38 | Last year's ranking: 2
The playbook for Rodgers here has been clear-cut the past two seasons: Win an MVP, climb one spot in the top 10. Rodgers was ranked third in 2020, behind Patrick Mahomes and Russell Wilson, after back-to-back years of middle-of-the-road production, by his standards. Then his game took off with one of the most efficient two-year stretches the game has ever seen: 8,414 passing yards, 85 touchdown passes, nine interceptions and a 69.8% completion rate on 1,057 attempts.
At four MVPs, he now trails only Peyton Manning (five) for the most all time.
"He's been the same guy and will continue to be; he'll make those receivers better [without Davante Adams]," a veteran NFC scout said. "He should have more championships, but their defense and special teams have let him down."
Rodgers led the NFL in Total QBR (69.1) for the second consecutive season in 2021, and his 72.2 QBR in the pocket was also a league best. Per NFL Next Gen Stats, his 0.19 expected points added per dropback led all quarterbacks in 2021, and his 3.3% completion percentage over expectation was third.
But one NFC coach brought up an interesting critique of Rodgers: He plays it too safe when his team needs the opposite.
"Late in the down, with pressure, he won't always take risks," the coach said. "On certain plays where he's throwing the easy completion on a smoke route and it's a critical moment, you're thinking, 'Is he really trying to win?
However, this week’s CBS Sports ranking of the top 30 NFL players age 30 or older, did not have Rodgers at No. 1, placing him second behind Tom Brady. The story included this note on its ranking process:
What goes into the ranking? Both past performance, 2022 projection and, to a lesser degree, positional value. Basically, which of these players is most talented and most important this season?
When past performances are included, Brady might be a shade ahead of Rodgers, but it’s debatable.
Here is what CBS Sports said about Rodgers in its 30 over 30 rankings:
2. Packers QB Aaron Rodgers (38)
No, his talent hasn't always translated to recent postseason excellence. But Rodgers still throws the ball with more precision and confidence than everyone except maybe the elder counterpart who tops this list. If you need a last-minute win, call his name.
Finally, ESPN included Rodgers in its group of 13 players projected to contend for the 2022 MVP. That report, also posted this week, had nine quarterbacks (including Trey Lance and Brett Rypien), two running backs, one defensive player and one kicker on its list of MVP possibilities.
Here is what it said about Rodgers
The candidate: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers
The MVP season comp: Rodgers in 2021
The story in 2021: Rodgers was unstoppable, even when the Packers didn't get him the help everyone expected.
Well, this one is obvious. In the 2020 draft, the Packers passed on a wide receiver to take quarterback Jordan Love and running back AJ Dillon with their first two picks. Rodgers won MVP. In 2021, the Packers passed again on adding a significant wide receiver to play alongside Davante Adams. Rodgers still took home the hardware for the fourth time in his career.
Now, of course, Adams is off to Las Vegas, while deep threat Marquez Valdes-Scanting followed the AFC West train to Kansas City. The Packers made a few modest additions – Sammy Watkins, Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs -- but they have on paper one of the least imposing receiving corps in the league. It seems like there's no way Rodgers has enough around him to win what would be his third consecutive MVP, something only Green Bay predecessor Brett Favre was able to accomplish. (Favre split one of those awards, in 1997, with Barry Sanders.)
It's foolish to count out Rodgers after his last two campaigns. He gets back two key players from seasons mostly lost to injury in left tackle Davis Bakhtiari and tight end Robert Tonyan. His only game with a perfect passer rating -- a five-touchdown masterpiece against the Raidersin 2019 -- came with Adams sidelined by injury. Rodgers would have a better shot at MVP No. 5 with a more imposing top wideout than Allen Lazard, but who's really going to say the 38-year-old legend can't do it again?
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Cover photo by Kirby Lee, USA TODAY Sports
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