Cal Sports Report

Did Aaron Rodgers Help or Hurt His MVP Chances on Saturday?

Former Cal quarterback had pretty good numbers, and Packers won, but was it impressive enough?
Jake Curtis|
Did Aaron Rodgers Help or Hurt His MVP Chances on Saturday?
Did Aaron Rodgers Help or Hurt His MVP Chances on Saturday?

Former Cal quarterback Aaron Rodgers entered the weekend as the leader in the NFL MVP race, according to most oddsmakers, but you wonder what the odds will look like when this weekend's games are completed.

Rodgers led the Packers to a 24-22 victory over the Cleveland Browns on Saturday afternoon, to move Green Bay (12-3) one step closer to clinching the No. 1 seed in the NFC. And Rodgers' numbers were pretty good -- 24-for-34 for 202 yards, three touchdowns, no interceptions and a 115.1 passer rating.

He entered the weekend with a passer rating of 110.4, which led the NFL, and that will improve slightly with Saturday's performance. And his touchdown-pass to interception ratio of 33 TDs to four picks for the season is beyond reproach.

All that looks pretty good for Rodgers' chances to win his second straight MVP award and fourth overall, but he just didn't have the impressive showing an MVP frontrunner would like in front of a national television audience.  The Packers only scored three points in the second half, when Rodgers did nothing of note, completing 6-of-11 passes for just 48 yards and no touchdowns.  The fact that Rodgers was obviously bothered by his toe injury (his broken toe was stepped on twice during the game) may explain his mediocre second half, but it is irrelevant when discussing MVP consideration. Cleveland outgained the Packers 408-311 for the game, had 28 first downs to Green Bay's 19, and probably would have pulled off an upset on the road if Baker Mayfield hadn't thrown four interceptions.

Of course, Rodgers' ability to avoid interceptions is probably his best trait.  Over the past five games, Rodgers had thrown 16 TD passes with no interceptions, a stat that is even more impressive at this point of the season when every game -- in fact, every play -- becomes more meaningful.

The fact that Rodgers broke Brett Favre's record for career touchdown passes by a Packers quarterback matters little. But the fact the Packers have the best record in the NFL -- and are 12-2 in game in which Rodgers played -- has to weigh in his favor in the minds of MVP voters.

No one is better at dropping the deep ball right into a receiver's hands. Granted Allen Lazard made a great catch, but the ball was perfectly thrown:

Where Rodgers stands in the MVP race with two regular-season games left will depend on how the other MVP contenders fare this weekend.

There seem to be five players in contention -- Rodgers, Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady, Colts running back Jonathan Taylor, Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes and Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford, probably in that order.

Taylor rushed for 108 yards in the Colts' game against Arizona Saturday night.  Forty-three of his yards came on his first carry of the game, and he totaled just 65 yards on his remaining 26 carries. He averaged 4.0 yards per carry, so it wasn't his best game, but the Colts won 22-16 to improve to 9-6, which helps Taylor's MVP push. He now has 1,626 yards with two games left, but a running back needs eye-popping numbers just to have a shot at the MVP.

A USA Today article this week suggested the MVP race has come down to three players -- Rodgers, Taylor and Rams receiver Cooper Kupp. Granted Kupp has had a spectacular season statistically, but a wide receiver has never won the MVP award (as presented by AP since 1957).  A quarterback has won it each of the past eight years and 13 of the past 14, and that's simply because that is the one position that makes or breaks a team's season.

Let's look at what the oddmakers were saying earlier this week. We looked at five betting sites, and four had Rodgers as the favorite and Brady at No. 2, while the other had Brady on top with Rodgers second.

Here are our examples.

Vegas Insider

1. Aaron Rodgers: +150 (or 5-to-4)

2. Tom Brady: +175 (or 7-to-4)

3. Jonathan Taylor: +800 (or 8-to-1)

4. Patrick Mahomes: +1200 (or 12-to-1)

5. Matthew Stafford: +1600 (or 16-to-1)

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Fan Duel

1. Aaron Rodgers:  +145

2. Tom Brady: +185

3. Matthew Stafford: + 900

4. Jonathan Taylor: +950

5. Patrick Mahomes: +1100

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Odds Shark

1. Aaron Rodgers: +125

2. Tom Brady: +175

3. Jonathan Taylor: +800

4. Matthew Stafford: +1000

5. Patrick Mahomes: +1200

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Sports Betting Dime

1. Aaron Rodgers: +125

2. Tom Brady: +200

3. Jonathan Taylor: +750

4. Matthew Stafford: +1000

5. Patrick Mahomes: +1200

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BetMGM

1. Tom Brady: +135

2. Aaron Rodgers: +165

3. Patrick Mahomes: +1100

4. Jonathan Taylor: +1200

5. Matthew Stafford: +1500

If you are not familiar with what these odds mean, click here for an odds converter.

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Aaron Rodgers' postgame press conferences are always worth a listen:

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Cover photo of Aaron Rodgers is by Wm. Glasheen, USA TODAY NETWORK-Wis, USA TODAY NETWORK

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Follow Jake Curtis of Cal Sports Report on Twitter: @jakecurtis53

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Jake Curtis
JAKE CURTIS

Jake Curtis worked in the San Francisco Chronicle sports department for 27 years, covering virtually every sport, including numerous Final Fours, several college football national championship games, an NBA Finals, world championship boxing matches and a World Cup. He was a Cal beat writer for many of those years, and won awards for his feature stories.

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