Cal Football: Fourth Quarter Has Been a Problem for Bears

Here’s an unnerving bit of information: Cal ranks last in the country in fourth-quarter scoring against FBS opponents, according to TeamSports.com.

And consider this stunning statistic: The Bears have not scored a single touchdown in the fourth quarter in their six games against FBS foes.

We’ll wrap up this group of unwelcome numbers with this: Cal has been outscored 44-6 in the fourth quarter in those six games against FBS teams.

We’ll dive into the numbers a bit more in a moment, but a few things to note first.

Cal is 4-3, and every game against FBS teams has been decided by 10 points or fewer. (The Bears beat UC Davis, an FCS team, in the opener 27-13, and Cal scored its only fourth-quarter touchdown of the season against the Aggies.) The margin between winning and losing has been razor-thin for the Bears, which is not surprising for a team that relies heavily on its defense to keep the score down.

Cal made the three or four critical plays in the first four games to come out a winner, but did not do so in the past three, with quarterback Chase Garbers sidelined. Coach Justin Wilcox makes the point in a video that there are different reasons for the critical shortcomings in each loss, and it does not solely involve quarterback play. But suffice it to say, when games are this close, every play is pivotal and the fourth quarter is particularly important.

The Bears have had a fourth-quarter lead in six of their seven games this season, and that includes the losses to Arizona State and Oregon State. The lone exception was the Oregon loss, and Cal led that game at halftime and did not relinquish the lead until just 1:38 remained in the third quarter.

Why the fourth-quarter problems?

It’s hard to say. One obvious possibility is the injuries suffered by the offensive line. Not only are starters missing, but the depth on the O-line has been compromised. Teams with a lead in the fourth quarter like to grind it out with running plays that eat up time, increase the lead, punish a defense, demonstrate offensive-line superiority and keep the opposing offense off the field.

The Bears average just 1.08 yards per carry on running plays in the fourth quarter against FBS teams and just 8.2 fourth-quarter rushing yards per contest in those six games. Some of that is due to sacks resulting from the need to throw, but that per-carry average is well short of the less-than-pleasing 2.97 yards per carry that Cal averages over an entire game against the six FBS foes. (The Bears average a Pac-12-worst 3.3 yards per carry over all seven games, including UC Davis.)

The Bears average just 2.7 first downs in the fourth quarter against FBS opposition despite averaging 17.7 first downs per game in those six contests.

They are just unable to control the ball in the fourth quarter.

Cal averages 49 passing yards in the fourth quarter against the FBS competition, which is not much different from its average over the first three quarters.

But before we get too bogged down with the numbers, let’s just say this: Cal has had trouble moving the ball and scoring points late in the game.

Its only fourth-quarter points against its six FBS opponents were a 17-yard Greg Thomas field goal with eight seconds left that beat Washington 20-19 and a 47-yard Thomas field goal with 10:50 remaining that gave the Bears a temporary 17-14 lead over Arizona State.

That impressive late-game drive in the Washington game provided hope that Cal might be able to come from behind at crunch time in subsequent games. But Garbers, who engineered that drive, is gone now, not expected to return until later in the season.

He has not started the past two games, and the Bears have not scored a point in the fourth quarter of those two contests – a 10-point loss to Oregon and a four-point defeat against Oregon State.