Cal Football Preview: Bears Face UCLA in Regular-Season Finale

Cal plays UCLA in Pasadena on Saturday night in the very last Pac-12 regular-season game ever in the conference’s current makeup.

A Golden Bears victory probably puts Cal in the Independence Bowl, and a loss probably leaves Cal at home.

This may be the last Cal-UCLA game for a long time, as the Bruins are headed for the Big Ten next season, and Cal will be a member of the Atlantic Coast Conference.

Here are all the important facts for this game:

CAL (5-6, 3-5 Pac-12) vs. UCLA (7-4, 4-4 Pac-12)

SITE: The Rose Bowl Stadium, Pasadena, Calif.

WHEN: Saturday, 7:30 p.m.

TV: ESPN -- Dave Flemming (play-by-play), Brock Osweiler (analyst), Kayla Burton (reporter)

RADIO: 810 AM -- Justin Allegri (Play-By-Play), Mike Pawlawski (Analyst), Kevin Danna (Sideline Reporter)

BETTING LINE: UCLA is a 9.5-point favorite. Over/under is 50.5 points.

WEATHER FORECAST: A high of 68 degrees Saturday afternoon in Pasadena is expected to drop to a low of 46 degrees Saturday night. The sky will be mostly clear with some clouds Saturday night.

CAL-UCLA HISTORY: Saturday with be the 94th game between Cal and UCLA in a series that began in 1933. UCLA leads the series 58-34-1 and has won the past three meetings. The Bears’ last win against UCLA was in 2019, when Cal defeated the Bruins 28-18 in Pasadena. That was also the last year Cal went to a bowl game.

INJURIES: Cal inside linebacker Cade Uluave and running back Jaivian Thomas probably will be able to play, but it is not a certainty. Backup running back Isaiah Ifanse is questionable.

CAL STORYLINES:

---A Cal victory would make the Bears bowl-eligible for the first time since 2019. It would not guarantee Cal a berth in a bowl game, but it would probably send the Bears to the Dec. 16 Independence Bowl in Shreveport, La., against a Big 12 opponent. A Cal loss to UCLA probably leaves the Bears without a bowl berth for the fourth straight year.

---Cal must win Saturday’s game as well as a bowl game to have its first winning season since 2019. The Bears are already assured of their 14th straight season with a losing conference record.

---Cal has won two straight games, including last week’s 27-15 victory over Stanford in the 126th Big Game. The two-game winning streak came immediately after a four-game losing streak.

---Bears sophomore running back Jaydn Ott leads the Pac-12 and is fourth nationally in rushing yards per game, averaging 118.0 yards per contest. He had 166 yards on 36 carries last week against Stanford and now has 1,180 yards for the season, which is the ninth-best single-season total in Cal history. Ott needs 16 yards on Saturday to pass Adimchinobe Echemandu for eighth place on the single-season list, 67 yards to move into seventh place and 143 yards to take over sixth place. That will be hard to do against UCLA’s outstanding rushing defense.

---Redshirt freshman Fernando Mendoza is scheduled to make his seventh collegiate start on Saturday. Cal is 2-4 in his previous six starts with all four losses coming against teams that were ranked at the time.

---Cal has forced 21 turnovers, which is tied for first in the Pac-12 and tied for 10th in the country.

---Cal has turned the ball over 22 times, which is tied for the second-most in the country. Despite all the turnovers they have forced, the Bears have a minus-1 turnover margin.

---The Golden Bears have scored 40 points or more against FBS opponents four times this season. Cal did not score 40-plus points more than once against an FBS opponents in any of Cal’s previous six seasons under Justin Wilcox.

---Cal has given up 50 points or more to its opponent four times this season. The Bears had not allowed 50-plus points to any opponent in the previous six seasons under Justin Wilcox.

UCLA STORYLINES:

---There is speculation on whether UCLA coach Chip Kelly will be fired after this season. A report surfaced last week that he might be fired after last week’s USC game, but that did not happen. Whether the outcome of the Cal-UCLA game will have any influence on Kelly’s job security is a matter of conjecture.

---UCLA is coming off an impressive 38-20 victory over archrival USC, although the Trojans finished with more yards of offense than UCLA. That Bruins win came after consecutive losses to Arizona and Arizona State.

---The Bruins lead the nation in both rushing defense (yielding 64.6 yards per game) and yards allowed per rushing attempt (2.17). UCLA limited USC to 3 yards rushing last week. The Bruins rank tied for 10th in the country in scoring defense, allowing an average of 16.73 points per game.

---UCLA defensive lineman Laiatu Latu is a good bet to be named Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year and is a likely 2024 first-round NFL draft pick. He leads the nation in tackles for loss with 20.5 and is second in the country in sacks with 13.

---Bruins quarterback Ethan Garbers, the younger brother of former Cal quarterback Chase Garbers, has started four of the past five games, including last week’s game against USC when he threw three touchdown passes. Garbers is the probable starter against Cal, although quarterbacks Dante Moore and Collin Schlee are also listed as possible starters on the Bruins’ depth chart and may see action Saturday.

---UCLA wide receiver J.Michael Sturdivant led Cal in receptions last year with 65 before transferring to UCLA in the offseason. He has caught at least one pass in every game for UCLA this season and is second on the Bruins in receptions (29), receiving yards (438) and touchdown catches (3).

---Starting UCLA inside linebacker Oluwafemi Oladejo played at Cal last season before transferring to UCLA in the offseason. He is fourth on the Bruins team in tackles and has 2.5 tackles for loss, one interception and three pass breakups.

---UCLA running back T.J. Harden made his first start of the season last week against USC and rushed for 142 yards on 22 carries for the Bruins. Carson Steele had been UCLA’s starting running back for most of the season.

---UCLA averages 27.5 points per game and has scored 10 points or fewer three times this season. The Bruins scored 10 points three weeks ago against Arizona and seven points two weeks ago against Arizona State.

--UCLA beat writer answers five questions about the Bruins--

CAL PLAYERS TO WATCH: RB Jaydn Ott (rushed for more than 150 yards five times in 2023); QB Fernando Mendoza (11 TDs, 5 interceptions); WR Trond Grizzell (walk-on had 136 receiving yards, 2 TDs vs. Stanford); WR Jeremiah Hunter (50 catches, 5 TDs); LB Kaleb Elarms-Orr (84 tackles, 3.5 tackles for loss); LB Cade Uluave (not certain to play, 4.5 tackles for loss, 2 forced fumbles, 1 interception)

UCLA PLAYERS TO WATCH: OLB Laiatu Latu (likely All-America selection); OLB Gabriel Murphy (13 tackles for loss, 7 sacks); RB K.J. Harden (142 rushing yards, 2 TDs last week); QB Ethan Garbers (3 TD passes, 0 interceptions last week); WR Logan Loya (49 receptions, 4 TDs); LB Darius Mausau (61 tackles, 8 tackles for loss, 4 sacks)

CAL STATISTICS: Click here

CAL NOTES, DEPTH CHART: Click Here

UCLA STATISTICS: Click here

UCLA NOTES, DEPTH CHART: Click here

JAKE'S PICK: Cal 28, UCLA 17

JEFF'S PICK: UCLA 31, Cal 21

BEN BOLCH’S PICK (Los Angeles Times): UCLA 35, Cal 24

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Cover photo of Jaydn Ott by Robert Edwards, USA TODAY Sports

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