Is It Now or Never for Cal Football in 2021?

USC: The Trojans are Pac-12's only CFP-caliber team

Oregon: Ty Thompson gets the nod before October ends

California: It's now or never for Bears

These statements are part of what CBS Sports is calling 2021 Pac-12 spring football overreactions. Each statement contains some logic, but, as the title suggests, each may be overreaching to elicit debate.

It’s possible that USC and its wealth of talent could wind up being the only Pac-12 team good enough to contend for the four-team College Football Playoff. However, Oregon will probably be ranked higher than USC in preseason polls and could be a CFP contender, too.

It’s also possible that true freshman Ty Thompson could replace senior Anthony Brown as Oregon’s starting quarterback before the 2021 season is over. However, true freshmen seldom become a starting quarterback for a Pac-12 team vying for a conference title, much less a national title.

CBS Sports provides an overreaction for each Pac-12 team, and we will list the other 10 here, with our counterpoint to each. The overreaction for Cal is listed last:

Arizona: The Wildcats are finally fun

Can new coach Judd Fisch inject some life into the moribund program in his first season? That’s asking a lot. He can make practices fun with some innovative moves, but during the season fun is a product of victories.

Arizona State: Jayden Daniels is league's best QB

USC’s Kedon Slovis might argue that point. A few others might too. Daniels ranked ninth in the Pac-12 in competition percentage last season.

Colorado: Jarek Broussard is vastly underrated

He received little national attention last season despite ranking third in the nation in rushing yards per game. But let’s see him do it again with defenses now focused on stopping him.

Oregon State: Tristan Gebbia determines the ceiling

The Beavers went 2-2 with Gebbia at quarterback, then went 0-3 after he suffered a season-ending hamstring injury. But the presence of Jermar Jefferson was a big reason for the Beavers’ early-season success. And there are still questions about Gebbia’s health since he did not participate in any meaningful way in spring ball.

Stanford: Cardinal will be lucky to get bowl eligible

Stanford lost a lot of talent from its 5-2 team that won a lot of tight games in 2020, and it has serious questions at the quarterback position with David Mills gone. A bowl berth is not guaranteed, but coach David Shaw usually finds a way to be competitive.

UCLA: Bruins will beat LSU in Week 1

UCLA will play a game before it meets LSU, which will be playing its opener and has to travel to Los Angeles. But the Bruins have had five straight losing seasons, including all three under Chip Kelly, and LSU will be hungry after its 2020 disappointments.

Utah: Charlie Brewer is the league's third-best QB

Brewer was a four-year starter at Baylor, so it makes sense to rank him behind Kedon Slovis and Jayden Daniels. But Chase Garbers and Dorian Thompson-Robinson have had about as much experience and are not learning new systems.

Washington: Sam Huard needs an early opportunity

Folks in Seattle have been raving about Huard, but as we mentioned earlier true freshmen quarterbacks seldom lead teams that are contending for a Pac-12 title.

Washington State: It's still Jayden de Laura's job

De Laura is the returning starter at quarterback, but he has some baggage after his February arrest for driving under the influence. He was suspended for spring practice, and his status is still unsettled. De Laura is still likely to be the starter in 2021, but Tennessee transfer Jarrett Guarantano could challenge.

California: It's now or never for Bears

Here is what CBS Sports’ David Cobb wrote about that:

Last season was shaping up to be a great one for Cal football until the COVID-19 pandemic wreaked havoc on the program's ability to conduct normal operations and the Bears limped to a 1-3 record following three seasons of progression under coach Justin Wilcox. However, Cal's lone victory came against Oregon to close the season, and that was no fluke; the Bears returned a ton of productive players last season from their squad that went 8-5 in 2019.

Many of those same key playmakers are back yet again, including a group of sixth-year "super seniors" highlighted by defensive anchors Kuony Deng and Cameron Goode at linebacker. Defense is Wilcox's specialty and the Bears have a high floor on that side of the ball. The offense, however, remains a source of concern. Fourth-year quarterback Chase Garbers has the tools, experience and surrounding weapons to lead a quality attack. However, the Bears looked awful offensively last season under new offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave, and there will need to be significant strides in that system this season if this team is going to reach its potential and compete for the Pac-12 North title.

On that topic, it feels like it might be now or never for Cal. Perhaps the Bears can be a perennial bowl team under Wilcox, but in terms of competing for a Rose Bowl spot, the window may be closed after 2021. Oregon's prolific recruiting suggests the Ducks could reclaim absolute authority in the Pac-12, and Washington may not be far behind after coach Jimmy Lake's 3-1 debut season and the arrival of Sam Huard at quarterback.

You can see why CBS Sports made this declaration.

The Bears’ best defensive players – outside linebackers Cameron Goode and Kuony Deng and safety Elijah Hicks – are entering their final college season. Quarterback Chase Garbers has two seasons of eligibility left, but this will be in his fifth season at Cal and he has already graduated, so 2021 might be his final season with Cal as well. This is Cal’s second year under offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave, and you would expect the offensive improvement that was anticipated when Musgrave was hired to materialize in 2021 if it is ever going to happen.

On the other hand, Cal has a few quarterbacks lined up to succeed Garbers, and the Bears’ young talent is considerable. The program seems to be ascending little by little under Justin Wilcox, and the 1-3 season last year should not be seen as a decline in the program since the 2020 situation was so unusual.

A Cal berth in the Rose Bowl may be a lot to ask in 2021, but it could happen if Wilcox remains at Cal for the foreseeable future.

Cover photo of Justin Wilcox by Stan Szeto, USA TODAY Sports

Follow Jake Curtis of Cal Sports Report on Twitter: @jakecurtis53

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