Pac-12 Bowl Projections: Washington vs. Oregon for CFP Berth
Reputable college football experts are pretty much in agreement that the winner of Friday's Pac-12 championship game between Washington and Oregon will get a spot in the four-team College Football Playoff.
Eight of the 13 websites we cited predict Oregon will be in the College Football Playoff, and four project that Washington will be in a national semifinal game -- either the Rose Bowl or the Sugar Bowl. Only one of the sites -- College Football News -- predicted that neither Pac-12 team would reach the CFP.
Cal (6-6) became bowl-eligible with its 33-7 win over UCLA, and 10 of the 13 experts predict Cal will end up in the December 16 Independence Bowl in Shreveport, La., and six of those 10 believe Texas Tech would be the Bears' opponent. One predicts UCF would be Cal's Independence Bowl foe, another has Kansas State as the Bears' opponent, a third lists Iowa State as Cal's Independence opponent.
Reports over the weekend suggest Cal might wind up in the LA Bowl against the winner of the Mountain West championship game between UNLV and Boise State. However, only one of our 10 experts -- Bill Bender of The Sporting News -- projects Cal to be placed in the LA Bowl.
Jon Wilner of the San Jose Mercury-News projects Cal to be in the Independence Bowl but offers this cautionary note:
Don’t rule out the LA Bowl for the Bears based on their head-to-head win over UCLA and late-season momentum. But if Shreveport is, in fact, the landing spot, Cal would benefit from the recruiting exposure in the southeast as the programs transitions into the ACC.
One expert -- Bryan Fischer of Fox Sports -- predicts that Cal will end up in the Sun Bowl against Georgia Tech, and one other expert -- Brad Crawford of 247 Sports -- projects that Cal will land in the First Responder Bowl against Georgia Tech.
Here are the Pac-12 and CFP bowl projections for the 10 sites we cited:
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Rose Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Washington vs. Michigan
Sugar Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Georgia vs. Florida State
Fiesta Bowl – Oregon vs. Alabama
Alamo Bowl – Arizona vs. Oklahoma
Las Vegas Bowl – Utah vs. Maryland
Holiday Bowl – Oregon State vs. Virginia Tech
Sun Bowl – USC vs. North Carolina
LA Bowl – UCLA vs. UNLV
Independence Bowl – Cal vs. UCF
Comment:
For Georgia, Michigan, Washington and Florida State, their conference championship games should be straightforward: Win and you're in. If an undefeated Power 5 champion gets left out, the playoff would be a joke and rendered meaningless. It's not going to happen.
If one or more of those teams lose, however, things would start to get interesting -- especially if Texas wins the Big 12. Unlike last year when TCU lost in the Big 12 title game and still qualified for the playoff, no team is locked in. It's possible a team like Georgia or Michigan could lose and stay in, but it would require a chaotic championship weekend.
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Rose Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Oregon vs. Michigan
Sugar Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Georgia vs. Texas
Fiesta Bowl – Washington vs. Penn State
Alamo Bowl – Arizona vs. Oklahoma
Las Vegas Bowl – Utah vs. Maryland
Holiday Bowl – Oregon State vs. Clemson
Sun Bowl – USC vs. Duke
LA Bowl – UCLA vs. UNLV
Independence Bowl – Cal vs. Texas Tech
Comment:
Oregon is my No. 3 seed after it defeated rival Oregon State 31-7 on Friday night. The Ducks have won six games in a row since falling 36-33 at Washington on Oct. 14. Oregon will have an opportunity to avenge that loss in Friday's Pac-12 championship game (8 p.m. ET, ABC) in Las Vegas. The winner of the Pac-12 title game will undoubtedly be in the CFP, and I'm projecting that the Ducks will come out on top.
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Jon Wilner (San Jose Mercury-News)
(Pac-12 representatives only)
Rose Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Oregon
Fiesta Bowl – Washington
Alamo Bowl – Arizona
Las Vegas Bowl – Utah
Holiday Bowl – USC
Sun Bowl – Oregon State
LA Bowl – UCLA
Independence Bowl – Cal
Comment:
Washington would be a lock for the playoff as an undefeated Pac-12 champion. What about the one-loss Ducks? They need Georgia to beat Alabama in the SEC championship to avoid messy outcomes. If the Crimson Tide wins, the selection committee might be forced to choose 12-1 Oregon or 12-1 Georgia for the final playoff berth. The Ducks would have a conference title on their resume, but Georgia is Georgia.
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The Athletic (Stewart Mandel and Scott Dochterman)
Rose Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Oregon vs. Michigan
Sugar Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Georgia vs. Florida State
Fiesta Bowl – Washington vs. Alabama
Alamo Bowl – Arizona vs. Oklahoma
Las Vegas Bowl – Utah vs. Northwestern
Holiday Bowl – USC vs. Clemson
Sun Bowl – Oregon State vs. Miami-Fla.
LA Bowl – UCLA vs. UNLV
Independence Bowl – Cal vs. Kansas State
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Rose Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Oregon vs. Michigan
Sugar Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Georgia vs. Florida State
Fiesta Bowl – Washington vs. Penn State
Alamo Bowl – Arizona vs. Oklahoma
Las Vegas Bowl – UCLA vs. Wisconsin
Holiday Bowl – Utah vs. North Carolina
Sun Bowl – Oregon State vs. Miami-Fla.
LA Bowl – USC vs. Boise State
Independence Bowl – Cal vs. Texas Tech
Comment:
The winner of Oregon and Washington in the Pac-12 title game should secure a berth. The Ducks have been forecast to win their rematch with the Huskies for several weeks.
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Rose Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Michigan vs. Florida State
Sugar Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Oregon vs. Georgia
Cotton Bowl – Washington vs. Alabama
Alamo Bowl – Arizona vs. Oklahoma
Las Vegas Bowl – USC vs. Maryland
Holiday Bowl – Oregon State vs. Clemson
Sun Bowl – Utah vs. Miami-Fla.
LA Bowl – UCLA vs. UNLV
Independence Bowl – Cal vs. Texas Tech
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The Sporting News (Bill Bender)
Rose Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Washington vs. Michigan
Sugar Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Georgia vs. Florida State
Fiesta Bowl – Oregon vs. Alabama
Alamo Bowl – Arizona vs. Oklahoma State
Las Vegas Bowl – Utah vs. Northwestern
Holiday Bowl – UCLA vs. Miami-Fla.
Sun Bowl – Oregon State vs. North Carolina
LA Bowl – Cal vs. UNLV
Independence Bowl – USC vs. UCF
Comment:
Washington opened as a 9.5-point underdog to No. 5 Oregon in the Pac-12 title game. Remember when the Huskies beat the Ducks 36-33 on Oct. 14? A loss likely would lead to the Ducks simply taking the Huskies spot.
Jim Harbaugh has yet to coach the Wolverines in the Rose Bowl, and there is a good chance that is going to happen against the Pac-12 champion – whether it’s Washington or Oregon. The contrast in styles here would be fantastic, and they have history. These teams have split four previous Rose Bowl matchups.
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Rose Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Michigan vs. Florida State
Sugar Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Oregon vs. Georgia
Cotton Bowl – Washington vs. Alabama
Alamo Bowl – Arizona vs. Oklahoma
Las Vegas Bowl – Utah vs. Maryland
Holiday Bowl – Oregon State vs. Clemson
Sun Bowl – USC vs. Miami-Fla.
LA Bowl – UCLA vs. UNLV
Independence Bowl – Cal vs. Iowa State
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Rose Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Washington vs. Michigan
Sugar Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Georgia vs. Florida State
Fiesta Bowl – Oregon vs. Alabama
Alamo Bowl – Arizona vs. Oklahoma
Las Vegas Bowl – Utah vs. Maryland
Holiday Bowl – Oregon State vs. Clemson
Sun Bowl – USC vs. Virginia Tech
LA Bowl – UCLA vs. UNLV
First Responder Bowl – Cal vs. Louisiana
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Rose Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Michigan vs. Texas
Sugar Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Florida State vs. Alabama
Fiesta Bowl – Washington vs. Penn State
Peach Bowl – Oregon vs. Ohio State
Alamo Bowl – Arizona vs. Oklahoma
Las Vegas Bowl – UCLA vs. Minnesota
Holiday Bowl – Utah vs. Clemson
Sun Bowl – USC vs. Duke
LA Bowl – Oregon State vs. UNLV
Independence Bowl – Cal vs. Texas Tech
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College Football Network (Oliver Hodgkinson)
Rose Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Georgia vs. Florida State
Sugar Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Washington vs. Michigan
Cotton Bowl – Oregon vs. Texas
Alamo Bowl – Oregon State vs. Oklahoma
Las Vegas Bowl – Utah vs. Northwestern
Holiday Bowl – Arizona vs. Notre Dame
Sun Bowl – USC vs. North Carolina State
LA Bowl – UCLA vs. UNLV
Independence Bowl – Cal vs. Texas Tech
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Action Network (Brett McMurphy)
Rose Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Oregon vs. Michigan
Sugar Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Georgia vs. Florida State
Fiesta Bowl – Washington vs. Alabama
Alamo Bowl – Arizona vs. Oklahoma
Las Vegas Bowl – Utah vs. Northwestern
Holiday Bowl – Oregon State vs. Clemson
Sun Bowl – USC vs. Miami-Fla.
LA Bowl – UCLA vs. UNLV
Independence Bowl – Cal vs. Texas Tech
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Rose Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Oregon vs. Michigan
Sugar Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Georgia vs. Texas
Fiesta Bowl – Washington vs. Alabama
Alamo Bowl – Arizona vs. Oklahoma
Las Vegas Bowl – USC vs. Maryland
Holiday Bowl – Utah vs. Clemson
Sun Bowl – Cal vs. Georgia Tech
LA Bowl – UCLA vs. UNLV
Independence Bowl – Oregon State vs. Iowa State
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Pac-12 bowl affiliations:
College Football Playoff Semifinal – Rose Bowl (Pasadena, Calif., January 1) or Sugar Bowl (New Orleans, January 1): If Selected
Fiesta Bowl (Jan. 1, Glendale, Ariz.), Orange Bowl (Dec. 30, Miami Gardens, Fla.), Cotton Bowl (Dec. 29, Arlington, Texas) or Peach Bowl (Dec. 30, Atlanta): If Selected.
Alamo Bowl (December 28, San Antonio): vs. Big 12
Las Vegas Bowl (December 23): vs. SEC
Holiday Bowl (December 27, San Diego): vs. ACC
Sun Bowl (December 29, El Paso, Texas): vs. ACC
LA Bowl (December 16): vs. Mountain West
Independence Bowl (December 16, Shreveport, La.): vs. Big 12
A Pac-12 team could also be selected for one of three ESPN-operated bowl games: Armed Forces Bowl (Dec. 23, Fort Worth, Texas), First Responder Bowl (Dec. 26, Dallas) and Gasparilla Bowl (Dec. 22, Tampa, Fla.)
A Pac-12 team could also be selected for the Birmingham Bowl, which has the option to take teams from two of eight conferences tied to this bowl. It will be held Dec. 23 in Birmingham, Ala.
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Cover photo of Oregon coach Dan Lanning and Washington coach Kalen DeBoer is by Troy Wayrynen, USA TODAY NETWORK
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