Pac-12 Football Notes: Arizona Could Win Conference Title
Arizona could win the Pac-12 title.
Yes, you read that correctly. The Arizona team that was picked to finish eighth in the preseason Pac-12 poll, and the Arizona team that seemed doomed to mediocrity when it started 1-2 in Pac-12 play and had some unknown short guy named Noah Fifita playing quarterback has a chance to win the Pac-12 title.
For that to happen, three things must take place:
1. Oregon State (8-3, 5-3 Pac-12) would have to beat Oregon (10-1, 7-01 Pac-12) on Friday evening. That’s unlikely, especially at Autzen Stadium (Oregon is opening at anywhere from an 11.5- to 14-point favorite), but it’s possible because the Beavers have the defense and ball-control offense that could bother the Ducks. And it’s a rivalry game where anything can happen – or so they say.
2. Arizona (8-3, 6-2) would have to beat Arizona State (3-8, 2-6) on Saturday afternoon. That could happen; in fact, Arizona is a 9-point favorite in opening lines at several betting sites.
--- If both those results come to pass Arizona would tie Oregon for second place, and the Wildcats would win the tiebreaker to earn a berth in the Pac-12 title game against Washington. (Arizona and Oregon didn’t play each other, so you’ll just have to take my word for the fact that Arizona would win a tiebreaker with the Ducks based on other tiebreaker criteria.)
3. Arizona would have to beat Washington. And that seems possible considering that, aside from the Huskies’ clutch win over Oregon State on Saturday, Washington has been less than impressive lately. It has not won any of its past seven games by more than 10 points. Meanwhile, Arizona is playing better than it was back on September 30, when it lost to the Huskies 31-24. The Wildcats have won five in a row, including Saturday’s 42-18 blowout of two-time Pac-12 defending champion Utah, and Fifita is challenging for Player of the Year honors in a conference filled with elite quarterbacks. In Fifita’s seven starts, the Wildcats have committed just four turnovers and averaged 34.1 points.
---The downside for the Pac-12 if Arizona wins the conference title is that it would probably rob the conference of a representative in the College Football Playoff, although things are in flux after Florida State lost quarterback Jordan Travis to a leg injury. The Seminoles now might lose to Louisville in the ACC title game, and who knows what else will happen to shake up the CFP standings.
The expected result of this weekend’s action is that Oregon will beat Oregon State and play in the Pac-12 title game against Washington, which clinched a berth in the conference championship game by beating Oregon State. And the winner of the Washington-Oregon game presumably would advance to the College Football Playoff.
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Bo Nix still leads Heisman race; Michael Penix Jr. drops
Bo Nix’s outstanding game against Arizona State kept him as the Heisman Trophy favorite in most – but not all -- betting sites, while Michael Penix Jr. is no longer Nix’s stiffest competition.
LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels, who spent his first three years at Arizona State, is just behind Nix on most betting sites, but Draft Kings and Fan Duel list Daniels as the favorite, ahead of Nix.
Daniels statistics are impossible to ignore. He leads the nation in passer rating (the best indicator of a quarterback’s worth as a passer), leads the nation in touchdown passes (36) and has rushed for 1,014 yards.
Meanwhile, Nix is second in the nation in passer rating and second in TD passes (35), but has thrown just two interceptions compared to four for Daniels.
Nix has two things working for him.
One, his team is 10-1 and ranked No. 6 in the country, still in the hunt for a College Football Playoff berth, while LSU is 8-3, ranked No. 14 and has no shot at a CFP berth.
Two, Nix is not pumping up his stats for the sake of stat-stuffing. Nix played only the first series of the second half of the 49-13 blowout of Arizona State and finished 24-for-49 for 404 yards, six touchdowns and no interceptions. Daniels played into the fourth quarter, when he threw a 40-yard touchdown pass, in the Tigers’ 56-14 demolition of Georgia State.
Please explain to me why LSU coach Brian Kelly had Daniels in the game at that point if not to inflate his numbers, which admittedly were impressive – 25-for-30, 413 yards, six touchdown, no interceptions and 96 yards rushing.
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Who should the two all-Pac-12 running backs be?
I fear the conference will give us a copout on this issue and list three players as first-team all-conference running backs instead of the standard two selections, because there are three worthy candidates.
First you have Cal’s Jaydn Ott, who leads the conference in rushing yards (1,180) and is fourth nationally in rushing yards per game at 118.2 yards. He leads the Pac-12 in touchdowns with 13. Ott’s strongman effort on Saturday when he carried the ball 36 times for 166 yards in the 27-15 win over Stanford that kept the Bears’ bowl hopes alive was impressive. But Cal is only 5-6 overall and 3-5 in the conference, on its way to its 14th consecutive losing record in Pac-12 play.
Then you have Oregon State Damien Martinez, who provides the identity of a Beavers offense that has helped Oregon State to an 8-3 record. He has rushed for 1,147 yards and averages 6.34 yards per game.
Finally you have Oregon’s Bucky Irving, who has 1,002 rushing yards, is ninth in the country in yards per carry at 6.72, has caught 43 passes for 362 yards and has scored 11 touchdowns. And he doesn’t play in the late stages of Oregon’s frequent blowouts while playing for a team that is 10-1 and ranked No. 6.
Hmmm.
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The Chip Kelly saga continues
A couple days after a report that he was likely to be fired after the USC game, Chip Kelly is still UCLA’s coach. Of course, it would have been difficult to dismiss the guy after he led his team to a decisive 38-20 victory over UCLA’s archrival. But will he still be the Bruins’ head coach after next week’s regular-season finale against Cal.
A victory over the Golden Bears would give UCLA an 8-4 record, an upset loss would make it 7-5. It seems absurd to think the result of one game could determine the employment of someone in his sixth season as head coach, but it’s possible.
UCLA officials have said the reports that Kelly’s dismissal was imminent were inaccurate, but the final detail will come after next week’s game.
By the way, here’s a look at perhaps the best play of the weekend, pulled off by UCLA quarterback Ethan Garbers, the brother of Chase Garbers, who played for UCLA next opponent, Cal.
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Who would have expected this?
USC was ranked No. 5 early this season and started 6-0. But the Trojans finished the regular season with a 7-5 record, and if USC loses a bowl game, the Trojans will barely finish with a winning record.
The Trojans have lost five of their past six seasons, the only win in that span being a one-point victory over Cal, which blew a 14-point, fourth-quarter lead, then failed on a two-point conversion attempt in the final minute of the game.
None of the Trojans’ past eight opponents scored fewer than 34 points, and they got crushed by rival UCLA.
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Pac-12 Player of the Year Standings
--1. Quarterback Bo Nix, Oregon – He has 35 TD passes and just two interceptions (one of which went through a receivers hands), and he had six TD passes in the first half Saturday. And, oh yeah, his team is 10-1 and ranked No. 6.
--2. Quarterback Michael Penix Jr., Washington – Penis still leads the nation in passing yards and his team is unbeaten, but his mediocre numbers in Saturday’s win over Oregon State (13-for-28, 162 yards, 2 TDs) puts him well behind Nix.
--3 Quarterback Noah Fifita, Arizona – Fifita is fourth nationally in completion percentage (73.6%) and is leading the Wildcats' surge of five straight wins.
--4. Wide receiver Troy Franklin, Oregon – He is fourth in the nation in receiving yards per game (111.0) and second in touchdown catches (13).
--5. Wide receiver Rome Odunze – Odunze is just behind Franklin, ranking fifth nationally in receiving yards per game (109.6) and fourth in TD receptions (12).
Top Five Pac-12 Teams
(We rank based on which teams have had the best results, not which teams we believe are the best teams)
--1. Washington (11-0, 8-0 Pac-12) – The Huskies’ road win over Oregon State was impressive and that win over Oregon keeps them on top.
--2. Oregon (10-1, 7-1) – The Ducks need to beat Oregon State to get the Oregon-Washington matchup we want in the Pac-12 title game.
--3. Arizona (8-3, 6-2) – I know Utah has a lot of injuries, but any team that beats the pants off the Utes has to be good.
--4. Oregon State (8-3, 5-3) -- Beavers can make their season by beating Oregon in Eugene, but that’s asking a lot.
--5. UCLA (7-4, 4-4) – The Bruins grab the last spot on out list on the strength of the 18-point win over USC.
Cover photo of Arizona's Noah Fifita by Gary A. Vasquez, USA TODAY Sports
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