Pac-12 Football Notebook: How Title-Game Teams Will Be Determined

The Pac-12 chugs along to the penutimate weekend with berths in the conference title game at stake, but there are important updates noted after the answer to the first question, including a decision on the Pac-12 title-game matchup. (The original story and the attached video were written and posted on Tuesday.)

Top five questions of the week

---Who will be the North Division representative in the Pac-12 championship game on Dec. 18?

It’s simple, but it’s complicated. The winner of Saturday’s Washington-Oregon game will play in the conference title game.

The reasoning is obvious if the Huskies win because, at 4-1, they would be the only team in the division with just one loss.

If Oregon wins to go to 4-2, it would be considered tied for first with the 3-2 Huskies based on the loss column, but the Ducks would win the tie-breaker based on head-to-head results. However, Stanford (2-2) and Washington State (1-2) would also be tied in the loss column with Washington and Oregon if the Cardinal and Cougars win their final games against Oregon State and Cal, respectively. Washington State would be eliminated from consideration because it would have two fewer wins than Oregon as prescribed by the Pac-12 tie-breaker rules, and Oregon would win a three-way tie with Stanford and Washington because it would be 2-0 against those two teams.

Wednesday update: Oregon-Washington game in jeopardy of being canceled. Click here for the story.

Thursday update: Washington cancels Thursday practice; still awaiting word on status of Washington-Oregon game.

Thursday afternoon update: Washington-Oregon game canceled. Matchup for Dec. 18 Pac-12 championship game yet to be determined. Huskies coach Jimmy Lake said Wednesday that if his team could not play this week it is unlikely the team would be ready to play in the conference title game or any Pac-12 game on Dec. 19.

This is the mother of UW's best player and the wife of one of the best DBs in Oregon history https://t.co/8E26kAmAOj
— Jon Wilner (@wilnerhotline) December 11, 2020

Friday update: Jon Wilner of the San Jose Mercury News posted this information, suggesting decisions on next week's games will be made Saturday or Sunday.

#Pac12 source: Week Seven schedule and participants in the champ game expected to be announced Saturday night or Sunday morning.
— Jon Wilner (@wilnerhotline) December 11, 2020

Saturday update: Pac-12 announced Saturday night that USC (5-0) will face Washington (3-1) at USC in Friday's Pac-12 championship game, but it is not certain Washington will be cleared to play. How many days will the Pac-12 wait to see whether the Huskies can be cleared of virus-related issues? One day? Two days? Three days? And what if Washington isn't cleared? Which team would face USC Friday in that case?

---Who will be the South Division representative in the Pac-12 title game?

It’s either USC, which is 4-0 in conference games, or Colorado, which is 3-0 in Pac-12 games, but don’t play each other. If both win their games this weekend – USC vs. UCLA on Saturday and Colorado vs. Utah on Friday – USC and Colorado would be considered tied for first place even though USC would have one more win. Then the tie-breakers would come into play, and USC would get the nod for the title-game berth based on a better record against South Division foes. USC would be 4-0 and Colorado would be 3-0.

In other words, Colorado would be penalized for playing one fewer conference game than USC, even though the Buffaloes’ games against USC and Arizona State were both canceled because of virus-related issues at the opposing schools.

If both lose this weekend, the same tie-breaker would apply, and USC would be the South representative.

In short, If USC wins, the Trojans are in, no matter what Colorado does.

It would be more palatable if one of them lost and the other won this weekend, providing a clear South Division winner.

---Why can’t USC and Colorado just play each other this week?

The Nov. 28 game between USC and Colorado was canceled for virus-related issues, so they will not play each other. USC is scheduled to play UCLA this weekend in its final game before the Pac-12 title-game participants are determined, and Colorado will play Utah. Why can’t the Pac-12 just scrap those scheduled games and line up a Colorado-USC game instead? It arranged the Cal-UCLA matchup just two days before that game was played, and the conference has rearranged matchups a few days before other Pac-12 games.

Canceling a rivalry game like USC-UCLA would not be received well, but the legitimacy of the Pac-12 championship takes a higher priority. Imagine if Colorado is the only Pac-12 team that finishes unbeaten but is not the Pac-12 champ.

If USC and Colorado both win this weekend, the Pac-12, in theory, could dismiss its plan to match division winners in the title game and instead have USC and Colorado meet in the conference championship game. At this stage, that possibility seems impractical, since Washington and Oregon are entering their game thinking the winner of that contest has a berth in the championship game guaranteed.

Let's repeat that ugly possible scenario: Colorado could end the season as the Pac-12's only unbeaten team and not be the conference champion.

---What happens if one of the two teams that qualify for the Pac-12 title game cannot play on Dec. 18 for virus-related reasons?

Bruce Feldman said on Saturday’s Big Noon Show on FOX that if one of the division champs cannot play, then the conference would bump the second-place team from that division into the title game. Presumably the same tiebreaker procedure would be used to determine the second-place team.

Update: The cancellation of Michigan-Ohio State game is making a mess of the Big Ten championship game.

The Big Ten subsequently voted Wednesday to eliminate the minimum-game requirement to play in the Big Ten title game, so Ohio State will be the East representative in the Big Ten championship game.

---What would the matchups be on Dec. 19 for the teams that don’t play in the conference title game?

The only thing we know is that the teams would not play a team it has already played. The original idea that each team would play an opponent from the other division is shaky now that many teams have not played all five division opponents. So . . .

Washington State could face Washington if the Huskies don’t reach the conference title game, keeping alive the Apple Cup tradition between these two instate rivals. Their Nov. 27 game was canceled.

If Colorado gets pushed out of the Pac-12 title game, the Buffaloes could be matched against North runnerup Oregon if the Ducks lose Saturday.

Cal could play Washington if the Huskies do not play in the title game since the season-opener between Washington and Cal was canceled. Or maybe Cal could face USC if the Trojans don’t play in the championship game, allowing the Bears and Trojans to extend a run in which they have played each other every year since 1925.

Maybe Stanford could play UCLA, since they have played each other every year since 1945.

Having a regular-season game and site determined less than a week before the game is played is odd, but the Pac-12 has been doing that on a week-by-week basis this season.

---Can the Pac-12 go a second straight week with 0 game cancellations?

Well, we can hope, and if any of the games that will determine a Pac-12 title-game berth are canceled, we have a problem on our hands.

Thursday update: Well, the answer to this question is an emphatic "No."

This Week’s Conundrum

Bowl games

With the L.A. Bowl’s announcement that it has canceled its bowl game this season, the Pac-12 is left with just four bowl tie-ins – New Year’s Six Bowl, Alamo Bowl, Independence Bowl and Armed Forces Bowl. And the Pac-12 added the Armed Forces Bowl just last week. There might be more bowl changes, but with just four spots the postseason market for Pac-12 teams is small.

Top Five Pac-12 Teams (at the Moment):

1. USC (4-0) – This basically is a flip of the coin, but it comes up heads for the Trojans because of their impressive win over Washington State.

2. Colorado (4-0) – The Buffaloes have a strong case to be No. 1, but their wins have not been quite as impressive as USC’s – in our opinion – and they have just three conference wins compared with USC’s four.

3.Washington (3-1) – Huskies almost pulled off an amazing comeback for the second straight week, but the bottom line is they didn’t, losing to Stanford.

4. Oregon (3-2) – Once considered a top-10 team with a chance to reach the College Football Playoff, the Ducks have lost their last two games to teams that are a combined 1-6 in their other games.

5. UCLA (3-2) – The Bruins are just a few of plays away from being 5-0.

Player of the Year Standings:

1. Jarek Broussard, Colorado running back – He is second in the nation in rushing yards per game for a 4-0 team. And he has a 300-yard game on his resume.

2. Kedon Slovis, USC quarterback – He’s the quarterback of a 4-0 team, and he looked like the Kedon Slovis of 2019 in the first half of Sunday’s win over Washington State.

3. Jermar Jefferson, Oregon State running back – He is third in the nation in rushing yards per game, but he is candidacy is hurt by the Beavers’ 2-3 record, his absence from the Utah game and his uncertain status for Saturday’s game against Stanford.

4. Tyler Shough, Oregon quarterback – He still leads the conference in passer rating by a sizable margin, and has 256 rushing yards for a team that is a win away from playing in the Pac-12 title game.

5. Nate Landman, Colorado linebacker – Landman is second in the conference in tackles per game and second in tackles for loss (8) for an unbeaten team that is second in the Pac-12 in scoring defense.

Offensive player of the week

Jarek Broussard, Colorado – It’s hard to believe someone could beat out USC QB Kedon Slovis (78 percent completion rate, 5 TDs, 0 interceptions in rout of Washington State) for this honor, but Broussard ran for 301 yards in the win over Arizona, and that’s the 10th-best rushing total in Pac-12/Pac-10 history,

Defensive player of the week

Nate Landman, Colorado – He had 16 tackles, including 12 solo stops and 3.5 tackles for loss, in the Buffaloes’ win over Arizona.

Numbers that matter

0 – Number of Pac-12 games that were canceled this past weekend. It was the first week that at least two games were not canceled.

0 – Number of times UCLA’s record was above .500 under third-year coach Chip Kelly before the Bruins beat Arizona State on Saturday to improve to 3-2.

0 -- Snaps played in the past two games by Washington running back Richard Newton, who led the team in carries over the first two games, was on the Doak Walker Award watch list and is considered an NFL-caliber prospect. Newton was in uniform the past two games, and coach Jimmy Lake has not explained his absence.

0 – Snaps played this season by Washington quarterback Kevin Thompson, who, according to Husky Maven, won the starting quarterback job in the preseason but could not play in the opener because of an injury and now cannot beat out redshirt freshman Dylan Morris. Thomson is a grad transfer who last year was the Big Sky player of the year at Sacramento State, an FCS school.

1 – Number of times this season that an FBS player has rushed for more than the 301 yards Jarek Broussard had on Saturday. Buffalo’s Jaret Patterson ran for 409 yards in one game this season, and Patterson tied Broussard’s 301 yards in another game in 2020.

1 – Number of games in which Cal was the underdog according to Las Vegas oddsmakers. Cal won that game, beating Oregon, a 9-point favorite.

3 – Number of games this season in which Cal was favored by Las Vegas oddsmakers this year. Cal lost all three, to UCLA, Oregon State and Stanford.

4 – Number of touchdown receptions USC’s Amon-ra St. Brown had in the first quarter against Washington State on Sunday. No other Pac-12 player has more than three touchdown catches for the season.

5 – Team rushing yards for USC, which averaged 0.3 yards per carry on 20 attempts, in the blowout win against Washington State. This is the school that has had five running backs win the Heisman Trophy. “Student-body left” were the bywords of USC power football. Now it’s student-body has left.

10 – Number of semifinalists for the Doak Walker Award for the nation’s best running back. Colorado’s Jarek Broussard is not one of them, even though he is second in the nation in rushing yards per game and has rushed for more than 120 yards in every game. Jermar Jefferson is one of the 10.

11 – Consecutive losses by Arizona, which was riding a four-game win streak last year when the losing streak began. (Coach Kevin Sumlin’s buyout reportedly is $7.5 million. Hmm.)

12.0 – Average yards per carry for Jarek Broussard while rushing for 301 yards against Arizona

18 – Number on consecutive completions Kedon Slovis threw during one stretch in the first half against Washington State

250 – Miles Stanford’s team traveled from Seattle to Corvallis, Oregon, on Sunday to begin preparation for Saturday’s game against Oregon State. Because of the Santa Clara County ban on contact sports, the Cardinal could not practice on the Stanford campus this week.

700 – Miles Stanford team had to travel last Tuesday to relocate to Seattle to prepare for its game against Washington because of the Santa Clara County ban. The Cardinal worked out at a public park one day last week, and on Saturday, Stanford upset Washington.

Cover photo of Jarek Broussard by Joe Camporeale, USA TODAY Sports

Cover photo of Jarek Broussard by Joe Camporeale, USA TODA

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