Pac-12 Football Notes: It’s Up to USC Now

We have four issues to address this week.

Pac-12 Stocks Take a Plunge

Last week was a good week for Pac-12 stockholders. This week was a bad week for the Pac-12.

The College Football Playoff window, which opened for the Pac-12 last week when Clemson, Alabama and Tennessee lost, nearly closed this week when sixth-ranked, Pac-12 leader Oregon and 12th-ranked UCLA suffered their second losses of the season. Oregon dropped to 12th in the AP rankings released Sunday and UCLA is 16th.

It leaves once-beaten USC, No. 7 in the AP poll, as the only candidate to earn the conference’s first CFP berth since 2016. And the Trojans suffered a loss of sorts, too. Yes, they handled Colorado easily Friday night, but they lost versatile running back Travis Dye for the rest of the season.

To have a shot at a spot in the CFP, the Trojans would have to beat rival UCLA in Pasadena this Saturday, then get past a surging Notre Dame squad the next Saturday and then defeat a nationally ranked opponent in the Pac-12 championship game the Friday after that. All with a fickle defense and without Dye, who ranks third in the Pac-12 in rushing, averages 6.1 yards per carry and has 21 receptions.

Lanning’s Three Costly Decisions

“This game 100% falls on me.”

That’s what first-year Oregon coach Dan Lanning said after his team’s 37-34 loss to Washington, and you can see why he said that. He made three decisions whose results may have cost the Ducks the game and a chance at a CFP berth as well as ending Oregon’s 23-game home winning streak.

1. Oregon was driving toward a tying touchdown early in the second quarter when it faced a third-and-1 at the Washington 4-yard line. The Ducks lined up in a swinging-gate formation with only three players on the offensive line and six players flanked far wide to the left and right. They shifted into a traditional formation as the play clock ran down, then had to hurry to get the play off, causing a fumble on the snap that Washington recovered. Why go to a tricky formation that messed up the whole play when you have been running effectively and had two downs to get one yard? Lanning may not have called the play, but he knew it was called.

2. Later in the second quarter, with the score tied 10-10, Oregon attempted an onside kick that was unsuccessful, giving Washington the ball at the 50-yard line and leading to a Washington field goal that put the Huskies ahead. Earlier this season Oregon used a successful onside kick in the first half to get an extra possession against UCLA and was the pivotal play in the win over the Bruins.

3. On fourth-and-1 from the Oregon 34-yard line and 1:30 left in a tie game with Bo Nix not on the field for this possession, Oregon tried for a first down instead of punting. But Noah Whittington slipped and was stopped for a 1-yard loss, giving the Huskies the ball at the Oregon 33-yard line with 1:26 remaining. Washington turned it into the game-winning field goal.

We're second-guessing only the first decision, when all that window dressing was totally unnecessary and messed up the play.

Five Teams Could End Up Tied for First

OK, bear with me for a second.

If Utah beats Oregon next week, which seems possible, especially if Bo Nix cannot play or isn’t 100%. Then if Oregon beats Oregon State and Utah defeats Colorado, which are the expected results . . . .

If UCLA beats USC then tops Cal, which is not out of the question given that UCLA hosts USC, which will be without Travis Dye. . . .

If Washington beats Colorado and Washington State in its final two games, as the Huskies are expected to do . . . .

Then we will have a five-way tie for first place among Oregon, Utah, USC, UCLA and Washington, all at 7-2. We don’t want to get into the multiple tie-breaker scenarios that would have to be considered to determine which two teams would meet in the Pac-12 championship game with a Rose Bowl berth presumably on the line.

The Big Game?

Next Saturday’s Cal-Stanford game, locally known as The Big Game, represents the 40th anniversary of The Play, the five-lateral kickoff return on the game’s final play that led to Cal’s 1982 victory over the Cardinal.

But there won’t be much to celebrate on the field.

Cal is 3-7 overall, 1-6 in the conference, and has lost six straight, its longest losing streak since 2013, when Cal went 1-11 in Sonny Dykes’ first season as the Bears head coach. (Things have improved a bit for Dykes lately.) Cal’s 38-10 loss to Oregon State left Cal’s road record since the start of the 2020 season at 1-12, including 0-5 this season, and the Bears have not won a game outside the Bay Area since 2019.

Injuries up and down the offensive line have ruined a once-promising running game. Freshman Jaydn Ott, who rushed for 274 yards in the fourth game of the season, has not rushed for more than 70 yards in the six games since, and he had 20 yards on eight carries against Oregon State.

After Saturday’s game, in which Cal’s offense scored just three points, head coach Justin Wilcox said this: “Really bad football by Cal today.”

---Update: Cal fired offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave and offensive line coach Angus McClure on Sunday afternoon.---

Things are no better at Stanford, which is also 3-7 overall, including 1-7 in the conference after a 42-7 beat-down against Utah. The Cardinal’s running back against Cal is likely to be a player who was a safety just two weeks ago.

Here is the Cardinal’s running back rundown:

---Austin Jones and Nathaniel Peat transferred to USC and Missouri, respectively, this past offseason.

---Top running back E.J. Smith was lost for the season after two games.

---No. 2 running back Casey Filkins was lost for the season after seven games

---Freshman running back Arlen Harris left the team last month.

---Brendon Barrow, the team’s only remaining scholarship running back, missed Saturday’s game against Utah with an injury and is questionable for the Cal game.

---Walk-on Caleb Robinson became the lead back, but he also missed the game against Utah and is questionable for the Cal game.

---Two week ago, Mitch Leigber, a safety who recently had been named the Cardinal’s scout team player of the week, was asked to change positions and move over to offense. He agreed to make the switch, was the only running back listed on Stanford’s depth chart for the Utah game and was the Cardinal’s leading rusher against the Utes. He’s a good bet to be the starter against Cal.

Top Five Pac-12 Teams

1. USC (9-1, 7-1 Pac-12) – The first-place team is also the highest ranked Pac-12 team.

2. Oregon (8-2, 6-1) – Let’s not forget that eight-game winning streak and the win over UCLA

3. Utah (8-2, 6-1) – No bad conference losses and a win over USC.

4. Washington (8-2, 5-2) – The road win over Oregon trumps the bad loss to Arizona State when comparing the Huskies with UCLA.

5. UCLA (8-2, 5-2) – Losing at home to Arizona is not a good look.

Pac-12 Player of the Year Standings

1. Quarterback Caleb Williams, USC – 31 TD passes (third in the country), 2 interceptions

2. Quarterback Bo Nix, Oregon – 24 passing TDs, 14 rushing TDs, fifth nationally in passer rating

3. Quarterback Michael Penix Jr., Washington – Nation’s leader in passing yards per game, outstanding in the win over Oregon.

4. Running back Zach Charbonnet, UCLA – Third nationally in rushing (143.1 yards per game), nation’s leader in yards per carry (7.53) among those who qualify.

5. Quarterback Cam Rising, Utah – His impact cannot be measured with stats, but his numbers are outstanding.

It’s almost embarrassing not to have Dorian Thompson-Robinson on this list, but who would he replace? The UCLA quarterback could jump all the way to No. 1 with an outstanding game against USC.

Cover photo of Washington's Michael Penix Jr. and Oregon's Bo Nix is by Troy Wayrynen, USA TODAY Sports

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