Pac-12 Football Notes: Will Utah Ruin USC's CFP Bid?
Eight Pac-12 questions to address this week with just one game left:
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Is there any way that USC would NOT make the College Football Playoff if it beats Utah in Friday's 5 p.m. Pac-12 championship game in Las Vegas?
Simply put, Ohio State is the only possible fly in USC’s ointment if the Trojans finish 12-1. Let’s run down the possibilities.
Georgia is in the CFP whether it bests LSU in the SEC title game or not. So that’s one spot taken before the weekend even starts.
Michigan would be in if it beats Purdue in the Big Ten championship game. That’s two teams.
TCU will be the third CFP team if it knocks off Kansas State in the Big 12 title contest. That’s three.
USC would be next if it is the Pac-12 champion. The Trojans are No. 4 in this week’s AP poll, which doesn’t mean the CFP committee will rank them fourth this week, but it’s a pretty good indicator.
If LSU beats Georgia in the SEC title game, LSU would still have three losses. No two-loss team has ever made it to the CFP, so a three-loss team has no chance.
Clemson took itself out of the running with losses to South Carolina and Notre Dame, a team USC beat.
Tennessee is 10-2 after its 56-0 beat-down of Vanderbilt, but the Vols won’t own a conference title. The same goes for twice-beaten Alabama.
That also applies to Ohio State, which will finish with just one loss. It’s hard to imagine the CFP committee would put the Buckeyes, who will not own a conference title, ahead of a Pac-12 champion with the same number of losses. Especially after the Buckeyes faded badly in the second half of a 22-point loss to Michigan on Ohio State’s home field.
If USC beats Utah on Friday, the Trojans will finish with wins over UCLA, Notre Dame and Utah in their final three games, and all three are ranked among the top 20 teams in Sunday AP rankings.
A Trojans win on Friday, and USC is in, no debate.
Of course, if USC loses, the Pac-12 gets shutout of the national championship race again.
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Can USC compete with Michigan or Georgia with the Trojans' defensive shortcomings?
USC ranks 91st in the country in total defense, and the Trojans may seem overmatched in a four-team tournament with the likes of Michigan and Georgia, which rank second and fourth, respectively, in total defense.
But the Trojans can get away with it because they have forced their opponents into 27 turnovers, fourth-best in the country, and more takeaways than Michigan and Georgia have combined.
Turnover margin is one of the best indicators of a team’s success, and the Trojans not only lead the nation in that category at plus-23, but no other team in the country has a turnover margin better than plus-14. Georgia has a turnover margin of minus-3, which makes you wonder how the Bulldogs could be undefeated and ranked No.1.
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What are Utah’s five steps to winning the Pac-12 title for the second straight year?
On Thanksgiving Day, Utah seemed to be out of contention, needing so many things to fall its way.
1. It needed UCLA to beat Cal on Friday. UCLA 35, Cal 28. Check.
2. It had to beat Colorado on Saturday. Utah 63, Colorado 21. Check.
3. It needed Oregon State to beat Oregon. Oregon State 38, Oregon 34, as the Ducks blew a 31-10 lead. Check.
4. It needed Washington to beat Washington State. Washington 51, Washington State 33. Check
That put Utah tied for second place with Washington and Oregon, and it went down to the Pac-12’s fourth tiebreaker rule to determine Utah would be paired with USC on Friday. The decisive information in tiebreaker No. 4 for multi-team ties is this:
Combined win percentage in conference games of conference opponents (i.e., strength of conference schedule)
Here are the Pac-12 teams each of three tied teams faced, and the combined winning percentage of those nine opponents:
Utah: Arizona State (2-7), Oregon State (6-3), UCLA (6-3), USC (8-1), Washington State (4-5), Arizona (3-6), Stanford (1-8), Oregon (7-2), Colorado (1-8). That group combined had 38 wins, 43 losses (0.46914 combined win percentage)
Oregon: Washington State (4-5), Stanford (1-8), Arizona (3-6), UCLA (6-3), Cal (2-7), Colorado (1-8), Washington (7-2), Utah (7-2), Oregon State (6-3). That group combined for 37 wins, 44 losses (0.45679 combined win percentage)
Washington: Stanford (1-8), UCLA (6-3), Ariszona State (2-7), Arizona (3-6), Cal (2-7), Oregon State (6-3), Oregon (7-2), Colorado (1-8), Washington State (4-5). That group combined for 32 wins, 49 losses (0.395061 combined win percentage)
So, essentially, the fact that Washington and Oregon did not play USC and Utah did put the Utes in the conference title game.
5. Utah needs to beat USC on Friday to claim a second straight Pac-12 title, which would no doubt earn the Utes a second straight trip to the Rose Bowl.
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Can Utah beat USC again?
Well, the Utes beat the Trojans in their head-to-head meeting on Oct. 15, but it was by just one point on a gutsy two-point conversion with 48 seconds left and it was in Salt Lake City, where the Utes are 12-0 the past two seasons.
This time the game will be in Las Vegas, but the Utes have been playing well lately, Cam Rising is healthy and playing at an elite level again, and the Utes always seem to perform well in big games.
The game is a virtual tossup, with USC being a 1-point favorite on some sites, a 1.5-point pick on some other betting sites, a 2-point favorite at other betting places, and a 2.5-point favorite at other wagering sites.
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Who will be the Pac-12 Rose Bowl team is USC wins Friday and makes it to the College Football Playoff ?
The logical choice would be Utah since it got to the conference title game. But if the Utes lose they would be 9-4, and with Washington sitting there with a 10-2 overall record and the same conference mark as Utah, you’d have to think that the Huskies would be the choice to face a Big Ten team, presumably Ohio State.
It would match the nation’s leader in passing yardage (Washington’s Michael Penix Jr.) against the player who was the Heisman Trophy favorite for most of the season and who still leads the nation in passing efficiency (Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud).
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How did Oregon State overcome a 21-point deficit without passing?
After Oregon scored to go up 31-10 in the third quarter, Oregon State ran 19 offensive plays the rest of the game and all 19 were runs. That’s no way to mount a comeback, is it?
It is if:
---Oregon could not stop the run even though the Ducks knew it was coming.
---With Oregon leading 31-21, Oregon punter Alex Bales fumbled a snap, giving Oregon State the ball at the Oregon 2-yard line.
---Leading 34-31, Oregon tried for a first down on a four-and-1 play from its own 29-yard line. Bo Nix, clearly hobbled by his ankle injury, tried to run for it and was stopped for a 1-yard loss. The Beavers scored the go-ahead touchdown on the resulting possession.
Was it a disappointing loss?
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What happened at Arizona State and Stanford?
The morning after Oregon’s devastating loss in Corvallis, Oregon, Duck offensive coordinator Kenny Dillingham was in Tempe, Arizona, officially being introduced as Arizona State’s next head coach. The Ducks are fourth in the country in total offense, and Dillingham helped Bo Nix become a Heisman Trophy candidate before his ankle injury derailed that.
Bottom line: It makes sense.
David Shaw’s resignation announcement did not come as a complete surprise. It was the appropriate way for Stanford to part ways with a coach who took it to three Rose Bowls, winning two. But the Cardinal is on a downward trend, and its 1-8 Pac-12 record this season matched the 2006 season for the school's worst conference mark since 1960.
Stanford's inability to bring in transfers puts Stanford at a distinct disadvantage in today’s climate.
Bottom line: It makes sense.
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How do you turn a Pac-12 program around in one season?
Three Pac-12 programs made significant improvements from 2021, and see if you can spot a trend.
USC went from 4-8 last season to within a step of the College Football Playoff this season. The difference? A transfer quarterback (Caleb Williams).
Washington went from 4-8 last year to 10-2 this year. The difference? A transfer quarterback (Michael Penix Jr.).
Arizona went from 1-11 last season to 5-7 this year. The difference? A transfer quarterback (Jayden de Laura).
OK, new head coaches at USC and Washington made a difference, too, but they don’t look good without standout quarterback play.
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Top 5 Pac-12 Teams
1. USC (11-1, 8-1 Pac-12) -- Trojans are in line to be the first Pac-12 team since the 2016 season to reach the College Football Playoff. (AP rank: 4)
2. Washington (10-2, 7-2) – Huskies have won six straight, the longest active streak in the Pac-12. (AP rank: 9)
3. Utah (9-3, 7-2) – The only team to beat USC. (AP rank: 12)
4. Oregon (9-3, 7-2) – Not the same team when Bo Nix is not a running threat. (AP rank: 15)
5. Oregon State (9-3, 6-3) – Jonathan Smith gets my vote for Pac-12 coach of the year (if I had a vote). (AP rank: 16)
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Pac-12 Player of the Year Standings
1. Quarterback Caleb Williams, USC – A strong performance in the Pac-12 title game will earn him the Heisman Trophy,
2. Quarterback Michael Penix Jr., Washington – Nation’s leader in passing yards led his team to 10 wins.
3. Quarterback Cameron Rising, Utah – Big-game performer
4. Quarterback Bo Nix, Oregon – Not the same player the past two games with the ankle issue.
5. Running back Zach Charbonnet, UCLA – It’s difficult to keep Dorian Thompson-Robinson off this list, but Charbonnet is fourth in the country in rushing and averaging 7.0 yards per carry.
Cover photo of Utah-USC by Rob Gray, USA TODAY Sports
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