Different Ranking Methods of Pac-12 Strength of Schedule Give Different Results

Man or machine – which can provide a more accurate assessment of a football team’s strength of schedule for the upcoming season?

Last month we presented the ranking of Pac-12 teams’ strength of schedule as determined by a metrics system used by the SportsBettingDime betting site.

This week David Cobb of CBS Sports posted his ranking of Pac-12 teams’ strength of schedule.

The metrics systems eliminates human biases, but does not consider some subtleties, such as the difficulty in playing road games against top opponents in consecutive weeks.

The two systems agree on which Pac-12 team faces the toughest 2021 schedule – Stanford, which plays Kansas State and Notre Dame and all of the Pac-12 favorites. But they disagree on which team has the easiest road. The CBS Sports’ human assessment claims Washington has the easiest schedule, while the SportsBettingDime metrics-driven system asserts that four Pac-12 teams have easier schedules than the Huskies.

The other major disagreement is USC. The human assessment sees the Trojans’ schedule as the ninth-toughest in the conference, while the metrics-based rankings put USC’s SOS at No. 3. In our humble opinion the fact that USC plays neither of the Pac-12 North favorites, Washington and Oregon, suggests the Trojans have a pretty smooth ride to the Pac-12 championship game.

There is no doubt about Cal’s strength of schedule, though. The Golden Bears’ strength of schedule is ranked as the seventh-toughest by both the human and metrics-based rankings.

Here’s what Cobb said about Cal’s 2021 schedule:

Nevada and TCU are solid nonconference tests for Cal, and the Bears must play Washington and Oregon on the road. The good news: Cal gets to play Arizona and Colorado in cross-division action while missing quality Pac-12 South squads Utah and Arizona State.

Here is the CBS Sports’ human rankings of strength of schedule of Pac-12 teams, going from toughest to easiest. The SOS ranking provided by the SportsBettingDime metrics is listed in parentheses. Each team’s toughest nonconference foe and the two Pac-12 teams it avoids playing this year are also provided:

1. Stanford (1) – Toughest nonconference opponent: Notre Dame. Pac-12 misses: Arizona, Colorado.

2. Colorado (6) – Toughest nonconference opponent: Texas A&M. Pac-12 misses: Stanford, Washington State.

3. UCLA (2) – Toughest nonconference opponent: LSU. Pac-12 misses: Oregon State, Washington State.

4. Arizona (4) – Toughest nonconference opponent: BYU. Pac-12 misses: Stanford, Oregon State.

5. Oregon State (9) – Toughest nonconference opponent: Purdue. Pac-12 misses: UCLA, Arizona.

6. Washington State (10) – Toughest nonconference opponent: BYU. Pac-12 misses: Stanford, Colorado.

7. Cal (7) – Toughest nonconference opponent: TCU. Pac-12 misses: Utah, Arizona State.

8. Utah (5) – Toughest nonconference opponent: BYU. Pac-12 misses: Cal, Washington.

9. USC (3) – Toughest nonconference opponent: Notre Dame. Pac-12 misses: Oregon, Washington.

10. Oregon (11) – Toughest nonconference opponent: Ohio State. Pac-12 misses: Arizona State, USC.

11. Arizona State (12) – Toughest nonconference opponent: BYU. Pac-12 misses: Cal, Oregon.

12. Washington (8) – Toughest nonconference opponent: Michigan. Pac-12 misses: USC, Utah.

Cover photo of Stanford's Austin Jones by Jayne Kamin-Oncea, USA TODAY Sports

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