Sizing Up Lions-Packers Game: Aaron Rodgers vs. Jared Goff

Let’s break down the Packers-Lions game on Sunday night, focusing mostly on the quarterbacks:

---It’ll be former Cal quarterback Aaron Rodgers against former Cal quarterback Jared Goff on NBC in the NFL's final regular-season game Sunday night (5:20 p.m. Pacific time).

---By now we should know what’s at stake. If the Seahawks lose to the Rams earlier in the day Sunday, the winner of the Packers-Lions game will get the seventh and final playoff spot in the NFC and face the No. 2 seed in the first round of the playoffs. At the moment it looks like the 49ers will be the No. 2 seed. If Seattle beats the Rams, the Lions would be eliminated from playoff contention, but the Packers would still earn that last NFC playoff spot if they beat the Lions. For the Packers it’s simple: Win and they’re in. For the Lions it’s a little complicated: Root for the Rams and win and they’re in.

---Seattle, Green Bay and Detroit are all 8-8. If the Seahawks and Lions both win to finish 9-8, Seattle would win the tiebreaker because Seattle beat Detroit in a head-to-head matchup earlier this season. If Seattle and Green Bay finish ted at 9-8, the Packers would win the tiebreaker because of a better record against NFC opponents. Green Bay would be 7-5, and Seattle would be 6-6. (Seattle and Green Bay did not play each other during the season.)

---If the Seahawks win, the Lions’ only motivation against the Packers would be to achieve the Lions’ first winning season since 2017. If the Lions make the playoff for the first time since 2016, they would seek their first postseason victory since 1991, when Wayne Fontes was their head coach and Barry Sanders was their star. Detroit has lost its opening playoff game in all eight postseason appearances since then.

---Sunday night's game will be at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, and you would guess that would give the Packers a huge advantage. Well, the Packers are just 5-3 at home this year, with home losses to two teams with losing records (Titans and Jets), and the Lions are 3-4 on the road, including wins in three of their past four road games.

---You would expect Green Bay, Wisconsin, to have frigid temperatures and snow in a night game in January. Well, the high in Green Bay on Sunday is expected to be 31 degrees, dropping to 21 degrees Sunday night, with snow unlikely. It will be chilly, but weather should not be a major factor.

---Even though, by any reasonable assessment, the Lions have played better than the Packers recently and Goff has played better than Rodgers, the Packers are 4.5-point favorites. “No matter how we try to talk ourselves out of it, it’s still Aaron Rodgers,” said ESPN analyst Ryan Clark, “No matter how we talk about it, it’s still Labeau Field.”

---Goff has been wearing gloves at times during practice this week, and said he might wear gloves on Sunday night if needed. We’re guessing gloves won’t be required, which is a good thing for Goff. Goff has relatively small hands for a quarterback, and in 2013, as a Cal freshman, he was pulled from a game against Oregon in the first quarter during a deluge even though he entered the game leading the nation in passing yardage. Goff simply could not grip the ball in the driving rain and completed just 3-of-6 passes for 11 yards before being replaced. "The ball was slipping out of his hand. We're not quite sure why but it was," then-Cal coach Sonny Dykes said after that game. "So we felt like we're having a hard time getting anything done. Couldn't throw it at all. " Little or no rain or snow is expected in Green Bay on Sunday night.

---The Lions beat the Packers 15-9 during their first meeting this season on Nov. 6, back when both teams were struggling. Neither Rodgers nor Goff had a good performance on the Lions' home field. In fact, it was Rodgers’ worst game of the season as he threw three interceptions with no touchdowns and recorded a season-low 53.5 passer rating. Goff was marginally better, but had his lowest completion percentage of the season, 53.8%.

---Goff and Rodgers have faced each other five times in the NFL as starting quarterbacks, with Goff holding a 3-2 edge. Realistically, though, Goff and Rodgers are tied 2-2, because one of Rodgers’ losses came in the final regular-season game last season when the Packers had already clinched the No. 1 seed and Rodgers played only the first half. In those five games, Goff and Rodgers have each thrown 10 touchdown passes.

---Rodgers is 5-0 in win-and-you’re-in games in his career.

---Goff and the Lions started the season 1-6 before winning seven of their last nine games. Over that nine-game stretch, Goff has thrown 17 touchdown passes and one interception, and he hasn’t thrown any picks over the last eight games. His last interception came in the Nov. 6 victory over Green Bay, and he’s thrown 15 TD passes in the meantime. The Lions rank third in the NFL in total offense and fourth in scoring; however, they are last in the NFL in total defense.

---Rodgers and the Packers began 4-8, but are now riding a four-game winning streak. In those four games, Rodgers has thrown four TD passes and two interceptions.

---Rodgers has been named NFL MVP each of the past two seasons, but Goff is having a much better season than Rodgers in 2022. Goff’s passer rating for the season is 101.1, which matches his career-best passer rating achieved in the 2018 season, when he led the Rams to the Super Bowl. It ranks seventh in the NFL this year, ahead of Josh Allen, Dak Prescott, Justin Herbert, Tom Brady, Matthew Stafford and Aaron Rodgers, whose passer rating of 91.5 is 15th in the NFL and is Rodgers’ lowest since he became a starter in 2008.

---Sunday’s game could be the last for Rodgers and/or Goff for their respective teams. Rodgers has hinted at retiring each of the past two seasons. He turned 39 last month and his subpar 2022 season suggests it might be time to call it quits. In recent days he is again hinting he might retire after this season. Meanwhile, it was assumed before the 2022 season started that the Lions would move on from Goff after this season, and that became more likely when the team started 1-6. But now that the Lions are playing as well as anyone in the league and Goff is playing the best football of his career, you’d think Detroit would stick with the 28-year-old Goff as its starter for 2023 despite his hefty salary. How Goff and Rodgers perform on Sunday could affect their futures.

---Both quarterbacks grew up in Northern California (Goff in Novato, Rodgers in Chico), and both grew up as 49ers fans. Goff wore No. 16 at Cal and with the Rams and Lions because that was Joe Montana’s number, and Rodgers’ wore a Montana 49ers shirt under his No. 8 jersey at Cal. Goff’s coach at Cal was Sonny Dykes, who is the head coach of the TCU team that will play for the national championship on Monday. Rodgers’ coach at Cal was Jeff Tedford, who this season coached Fresno State from a 1-4 start to a Mountain West title and an LA Bowl victory over Washington State. Cal fired both Dykes and Tedford.

---Private lives. Rumors about Rodgers’ romantic relationships abound, as you can see in this story. Meanwhile, not much is said about Goff’s personal life other than his June engagement to model Christen Harper.

---Rodgers is a polarizing figure, as articulated by SF GATE columnist Drew Magary, who hates Rodgers. “He’s very outspoken,” Goff said of Rodgers. “I have a lot of respect for him.” Goff seldom says anything controversial. As a result, Rodgers’ postgame interviews are a lot more interesting.

Talking heads have a lot more to say about Rodgers and the Packers:

And then there’s Goff’s Wednesday presser:

Cover photo of Aaron Rodgers by Lon Horwedel, USA TODAY Sports

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