Will Cal Get Into NCAA Baseball Tournament? It Will Be Close

The 64-team field will be announced Monday. One respected site says the Golden Bears are in, but another says they are out.

Caleb Lomavita and Rodney Green Jr. / Robert Edwards

A sleepless Sunday night awaits the Cal baseball players and coaches.

The field for the 64-team NCAA baseball tournament will be announced Monday at 9 a.m. on ESPN2, and it’s a tossup as to whether the Golden Bears will get a berth.

The two most respected sources of college baseball information are probably Baseball America and D1 Baseball, and they are split on their opinion of Cal’s chances to earn its first NCAA berth since 2019.

Baseball America predicted on Sunday morning that Cal won’t make the field, listing Cal among the First Four Out.  D1 Baseball’s projection Sunday morning have the Golden Bears in the NCAA tournament field, placing Cal as the 63rd team in the 64-team bracket.

The two sites agree that the Bears are a borderline case.

If Cal does get a berth it is likely to be a No. 3 seed in one of the 16, four-team regionals.  But the hours between now and Monday’s announcement will be high-anxiety time for the Golden Bears.

Three Pac-12 teams – Arizona, Oregon State and Oregon – are virtually assured of receiving NCAA berths, and the fact that Arizona beat USC in the conference title game on Saturday night works in Cal’s favor.  Arizona was going to get an NCAA berth whether it won Saturday’s game or not, but USC’s only shot of reaching the NCAA tournament was to capture the automatic berth that went to the Pac-12 tournament champion.  That would have bumped one at-large berth, a berth that might go to Cal.

Results of games thousands of miles away could affect the Bears’ chances of getting a postseason berth.

The argument that Cal should get in because it is one of the 64 best teams in the country is flawed.  Thirty-one teams get automatic berths by being  conference champs, and many champions from smaller conferences are not among the 64 best teams.

Cal’s goal is to be seen as one of the 33 teams that don’t get automatic bids, so the NCAA Division I Baseball Committee will select the Bears for an at-large berth.

So what is working in Cal’s favor?

--- Cal has a 36-19 record, tying the Bears’ 2016 team for the most Cal wins in a season since 2011.

--- Cal went 20-5 over its final 25 games, and maybe the selection committee will consider how a team is performing coming into the postseason.

--- In April, Cal swept a three-game series from Oregon State, which has the highest RPI of any Pac-12 school at No. 16 and might be chosen as one of the 16 regional sites.

--- Just three days ago, Cal defeated regular-season Pac-12 champion Arizona, which also won the conference tournament.

--- Cal simply looks like an NCAA-caliber team.

What is working against Cal?

--- Cal has an RPI ranking of 63 as of Sunday morning, and the rule of thumb is that teams typically need an RPI of 55 or better to earn serious consideration for at-large inclusion in the NCAA tournament. There is an argument that the RPI, as it is constructed, is biased against West Coast teams for a variety of reasons, but the fact remains the Bears are only 63rd.

--- Cal is ranked 56th in the Kevin Pauga Index (KPI), which is another metric the selection committee is using this year to choose at-large teams.  That ranking is a little low for an at-large selection.

--- Cal only tied for fifth place in the final standings of the Pac-12, which is seen as being weaker than most years.

It all adds up to a confusing set of considerations for the selection committee to ponder when it comes to Cal. Suffice it to say, Golden Bears players will be nervous when they tune in the selection show Monday morning.