Bearcats Basketball 2026-27 Ceiling/Floor Results Projected in Big 12

Cincinnati is aiming to go dancing for the first time this decade.

Dec 14, 2024; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; The Cincinnati and Jordan logo is seen on the shirt of a player during warmups before the game between the Xavier Musketeers and the Cincinnati Bearcats at Fifth Third Arena. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-Imagn Images | USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Connect

ESPN's Myron Medcalf broke down the floor and ceiling projections he has for all 16 Big 12 basketball teams this coming season, and Cincinnati's is very familiar.

He has the first season under Jerrod Calhoun ending in a first-round NCAA Tournament exit as the ceiling, with 22 wins, and the floor looking like 17 wins and no dancing.

The result of the Ohio five-for-five injunction involving star wing MJ Collins has a lot to do with where Cincinnati will end up.

"A late-season surge didn't stop Cincinnati from parting ways with Wes Miller and hiring Utah State's Jerrod Calhoun as head coach," Medcalf wrote. "Every key player from Miller's roster left the program as a result, leaving Calhoun to hit the portal to assemble a team. Myles Colvin (11.6 PPG at Wake Forest last season) is one of six newcomers to have averaged double figures somewhere else. If MJ Collins Jr. -- the former Utah State star whose eligibility is currently in limbo -- gets a chance to play for Calhoun again, this team's potential and outlook will change for the better."

The Bearcats ranked 11th in the Big 12 during this exercise, and that ceiling included a fifth-place conference finish while the floor had them finishing ninth.

If Cincinnati has Collins, they could definitely blast through that top-end projection and win a first-round game. Alas, plenty is still up in the air with that situation and the back end of the roster, which currently has 13 players eligible to play out of a possible 15 spots.

Calhoun is hungry to get this program back to consistently making the big dance.

"We're here to get them back to the NCAA Tournament to make deep runs. This is a storied program, two national championships, the list goes on and on," Calhoun said earlier this offseason. "It's a fan base that is starving to get back in the NCAA Tournament, and we fully expect to do that."

Check out the full Big 12 ceiling/floor look from Medcalf here.

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