Trevor Lawrence vs. (Some of the) NFL Draft World: Contrarian Views Exist for Clemson QB
Some things are inevitable: death, taxes and people who will tell you the best player in the NFL draft actually isn't the best player in the NFL draft.
The latter is currently happening to Trevor Lawrence, the former Clemson quarterback who's been crowned the top pro prospect for the last few years.
Yet, while everybody was quick to try and be the first to tell you he was the next Peyton Manning or Andrew Luck as a prospect, somewhere Lawrence built some contrarian views. But this is how it's always gone in the NFL.
Somewhere, somebody was saying Ryan Leaf would be a better pro than Manning back in 1998. Two decades later, folks tried to talk the Arizona Cardinals out of drafting QB Kyler Murray, even after they hired an offensive-minded coach and set their path.
So it shouldn't come as a surprise that BYU's Zach Wilson or Ohio State's Justin Fields or North Dakota State's Trey Lance are all better options than Lawrence at No. 1 overall to some. However, those people are simply wrong and likely looking for attention.
"The more you talk to evaluators around the NFL they'll tell you that, 'Hey, let's pump the brakes on this Trevor Lawrence kid a little bit,'" ESPN's draft analyst Matt Miller said on "Get Up" last week. "While (Lawrence) has been anointed as the future and savior of football, Zach Wilson, a lot like Joe Burrow last year, really had that ascension in his final year."
While there's no combine to help end this debate or possibly strengthen the arguments this year because of the COVID-19 pandemic, it's hard to understand how Lawrence did anything in college that would make the Jacksonville Jaguars believe they're making a colossal mistake hitching their wagon to the Cartersville, Ga., native.
They aren't, by the way. Brett Favre nor June Jones nor random Twitter scout nor unnamed NFL executives, especially, the ones who spew smoke screens and wild takes, should convince you otherwise.
"It happens every year," said Ryan Roberts, NFL Draft Bible Director of Scouting, about the talk of Lawrence not going No. 1. "The same conversation took place when Andrew Luck was coming out, with rumors that Robert Griffin III had a chance to unseat him. People are just getting bored of praising Lawrence. He is the top pick, no questions."
Roberts is right. We live in a sports society where hot takes rule, and there are some who want to cause a stir. Like Roberts, whose site is part of the Sports Illustrated network, not everybody has this point of view. It's a loud minority of draft experts, but it's a take that catches attention.
"The Trevor Lawrence evaluation has stayed firm," Roberts said. "The full resume, physical skill set and maturation are clear as day. He is the type of prospect who can elevate any situation/supporting cast that is around him. He is what we call an elevator."
So don't buy the downplaying of Lawrence or the hype of another QB. Sure, Wilson has great upside, the kind those wanting the next Patrick Mahomes are searching for, but it's a huge leap to take.
Fields showcased a lot of ups and some downs with the Buckeyes, but he was also a borderline first-round pick just a few months ago. Lance is the ultimate wildcard coming out of the FCS level, and it didn't work out well for Philadelphia when the Eagles moved up to get Carson Wentz in 2016.
"I don't necessarily think (Lawrence is) a can't miss, All-Pro, Hall of Fame level quarterback," ESPN's Ryan Clark said. "I cannot get out of my mind Trevor Lawrence walking into the stadium and facing Joe Burrow and being totally out-played. And then I can't get out of my mind the next year doing the same thing against Justin Fields."
That's fair, and no one should assume Lawrence will absolutely live up to the hype. It's a volatile position and team/system placement matters, but that's still a small sample size compared to everything else he showed as a starter who went 34-2 at Clemson.
For Roberts, it's not just about the easy-to-see scouting. It takes more than talent. He said he looks for "leadership qualities, ability to take in information quickly, drive and determination." Lawrence excels at all of that.
So be prepared Jaguars and Tigers fans. Your quarterback is going to get ripped to shreds by somebody, but remember, by and large, the NFL draft community is still in love with Lawrence, and there's no legitimate argument against that.
"You hate to speak in absolutes, but it is zero chance (somebody besides Lawrence goes first)," Roberts said. "Quarterbacks this talented don't come around very often. You write it in pen."
