Lawrence or Fields? Let the NFL Draft Debate Begin
One year from now, a quarterback's phone is going to ring.
His name is going to be the first one announced on national television.
He's going to (presumably) walk across a stage in Cleveland, hug NFL commissioner Roger Goodell and hold up a jersey with his name on the back.
What team gets that pick in the 2021 NFL Draft remains to be seen, but the person receiving the honor of being selected first overall is widely expected to be Trevor Lawrence.
Or is it?
As I wrote about last week when looking at the best-case scenario for former Clemson linebacker Isaiah Simmons before the 2020 draft, there may never be a consensus NFL prospect for everyone to agree on. Players are picked at apart at such a level that somebody, somewhere will go against the crowd and tell you a sure-thing is overrated, no matter how good the player actually is.
It's already happening to Lawrence. The Clemson QB has been declared the next great quarterback since he beat Alabama to win the national championship in the 2018 season. NFL scouts, executives and analysts raved about his size, decision making and throwing ability.
Most still do, and Lawrence is the overwhelming favorite to be the No. 1 pick, according to Betonline.ag.
However, there are already dissenting voices, those who aren't as in love with Lawrence as they once were or ones who are falling more in love with Ohio State QB Justin Fields, a fellow Georgia native. These two have a well-established rivalry that goes back to their high school days when recruiting services were spit on which one was the No. 1 prospect in the 2018 recruiting class.
Now, it's going to play out in a yearlong draft race.
They went head-to-head in the 2019 College Football Playoff Fiesta Bowl last December, Clemson bested the Buckeyes 29-23. Both put up solid total yards, but Lawrence had three combined touchdowns, including a 67-yard TD run, to Fields' one. Fields threw two critical interceptions, while Lawrence didn't turn the ball over.
Obviously there's way more to evaluate than one game. Lawrence struggled against LSU in the national championship game. Both will get a chance to redeem themselves as the top two Heisman Trophy candidates in 2020.
Lawrence proved he could play right off the bat, throwing for over 3,200 yards and tossing 30 touchdowns to four interceptions as a true freshman when he beat out Kelly Bryant in 2018 on the way to a historic season.
Despite throwing eight interceptions in the first half of last season, he finished with even better numbers in 2019, racking up over 3,600 yards and 36 touchdowns while not recording another interception the rest of the year. He also rushed for 563 yards and nine touchdowns to make that another appealing part of his game.
Lawrence has been compared to Andrew Luck, maybe the last QB to receive a can't-miss tag like Lawrence's. The Clemson QB has actually put up better numbers and accomplished more than Luck to this point.
Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields
Fields, meanwhile, began his career at Georgia, where he spent a season backing up Jake Fromm and being underused. He bolted for Ohio State after the season and received an NCAA waiver to play right away.
In his only year as a starter, Fields threw 41 touchdowns, rushed for 10 more and threw just one interception before that postseason game against Clemson. He finished with over 3,200 passing yards and nearly 500 on the ground while earning an invite to the Heisman Trophy ceremony in New York City, something Lawrence didn't.
That's not an achievement used to predict how good a player will be at the next level, but based on sample sizes and talent, Lawrence is still the better NFL prospect. However, that will be disputed between now and next April.
The thing is, Fields could potentially pass him. Think about it: Was Joe Burrow the projected No. 1 pick this time last year? Or what about Kyler Murray the year before he went first? Nobody thought Baker Mayfield would be the Browns' guy in the fall of 2017. Did you ever see Mitchell Trubisky going before Deshaun Watson in 2016?
Weird stuff happens when we evaluate QBs in their final year before entering the draft, so don't surprised at what you hear and see. However, Lawrence and Fields are the two best prospects for 2021, and while Lawrence isn't perfect, he's still one of the most complete QBs college football has seen in years.
Fields still has that to prove.
