Odds and Ends: Can Clemson Be Trusted to Cover vs. Louisville at Home?

No. 10 Clemson has never lost to Louisville.

The Tigers have won all seven meetings and gone 5-2 against the spread, including five consecutive covers. They even beat the Cardinals last year by six in a game they were favored by just 3.5-points without playing all that well.

Now, the Tigers host Louisville at 3:30 p.m. You might call this the ultimate revenge situation for the Cardinals, but haven't the last six meetings been that?

This year, however, does feel a little different. Clemson (8-1 overall, 6-0 ACC) is only a 7-point favorite, according to FanDuel Sportsbook, at Memorial Stadium, where the program has won 38 consecutive games.

The Tigers were a 38-point favorite the last time Louisville came to Clemson back in 2019.

This time, the Cardinals are 6-3 against the spread. They've won four consecutive games, all covers, and have a top-40 passing defense this season. Louisville is first in the ACC in turnovers gained (24) on a unit that's been one of the bigger surprises in the league this year.

Plus, the Cardinals have dual-threat QB Malik Cunnigham, who rushed for 137 yards against Clemosn a year ago.

Now for the Clemson side: The Tigers are just 4-5 against the spread and are coming off their first loss of the season at Notre Dame. The defense gave up over 200 yards for the second time in three games; Louisville has rushed for over 200 yards in back-to-back contests.

The Tigers' offense is much more troublesome right now. Clemson has turned the ball over six times in the last two games. They've given the opponent 21 points in that span, including a blocked punt and a pick-6 from QB DJ Uiagalelei last week.

A lot of the offense's explosiveness and third-down success from the first six or seven games has dissipated. The ability to go undefeated has as well, and a lof of the the team's College Football Playoff hopes are out of their control.

Much of these woes are reflected in the betting market. The spread hasn't moved most of the week, especially after sportsbooks limits increased. It's sensible that bettors don't want to back Clemson, a team that hasn't been a cover machine.

But it's also reasonable to think a high-level program like Swinney's will bounce back and regain its focus. Plus, that home winning streak is the best in ACC history for a reason.

Regardless, there just isn't a clear sign as to what bettors think of this matchup. Unless the Tigers prove they can cut down on the turnovers and play with less mistakes, that might remain the case, no matter the opponent.

Betting picks

Spread: Louisville +7

Total: Under

Best bet (3-6): We took a chance on Uiagalelei scoring a rushing touchdown with great odds last week and he got tackled on a good run inside the 5-yard line. That's how it goes sometimes. This week, the play is on the total. The over is hot, going 4-1 in the last five meetings, but trends are made to be stopped. Or something like that. It's hard to think Clemson's offense fires on all cylinders this week when it's clearly gone the other way, and Louisville's defense is a bad matchup. Meanwhile, the Tigers' defense has to take the ND loss personally, and the crowd will impact that side of the ball the most. Trust the UNDER 52.5 points.

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