Jason Priester/All Clemson
Odds and Ends: Clemson Defense is Key to Covering Big Number vs. Louisiana Tech
Clemson faces a huge betting number for the third consecutive week, and the No. 5 Tigers, who are 1-1 against the spread, are still getting faith in covering at home.
A line that opened up at Clemson -32.5 has moved to -33.5 points in Saturday's 8 p.m. game against Louisiana Tech, according to FanDuel Sportsbook. The over/under which started at 54.5 has come down to 53.5.
Those aren't large movements, but the fact that neither number hasn't gone the other way speaks to how the Tigers are likely to approach this game from a defensive standpoint. The Clemson offense is averaging 38 points per game through two contests.
The defense, meanwhile, got called out by head coach Dabo Swinney earlier in the week after a lackluster performance in which it gave up 384 total yards to FCS Furman. They've allowed 10 points to Georgia Tech and 12 to Furman, but this group expects better than that.
This should be an inspired side of the ball, and even though La. Tech is putting up 430 yards of offense per game, the Tigers are desperate to show that they do have one of the best stop-units in the country.
Clemson will be without several defensive contributors in this game.
The Bulldogs haven't been good on early downs, ranking 108th nationally on first and second downs EPA (Expected Points Added), a metric that calculates expected points scored based on the down, distance, and field position at the start of a play compared to the result of that play.
Clemson, which is seventh nationally in early-downs EPA, wasn't good on third downs against Furman, allowing the Paladins to go 10-of-18. But if the Tigers force Louisiana Tech into difficult third-and-longs, which the numbers suggest, Clemson should be able to get off the field much easier.
That would allow the offense, which ran just 59 plays last week, much more opportunities to put up points. The Tigers have been pretty good on this side of the ball metrically. The passing offense ranks 11th in EPA, but Clemson isn't producing enough big plays and it ranks 44th in third-down conversions.
However, this offense has been perfect in the red zone with 10 touchdowns and two field goals in 12 trips inside the 20-yard line.
If you're looking to back the Tigers and that large spread, you're going to need a ton of scoring chances for Clemson because of the lack of explosive plays, and that ties into the defense, which has to avoid giving up big plays and third-down conversions with a secondary that is yet to be truly tested.
Betting picks
Spread: Clemson
Total: Under 53.5
Best bet (0-2): This is not the start to the season we were anticipating. First, Will Shipley only gets 11 touches in Week 1 to kill his rushing total. Then Clemson and Furman combine for a big, fat zero points in the fourth quarter to force the total points under. Gross, just gross. But this is a new week and another chance. La. Tech gave up 323 rushing yards against the only other Power 5 team it has faced this year. There should be some running lanes for a Tiger team that hasn't committed to the run this year but has statistically been pretty efficient there, so let's go back to the well and take Shipley OVER 77.5 yards this week. He'll finally get more touches and a couple of explosive plays.
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