Odds and Ends: What Clemson Must Overcome to Cover Spread at Irish

No. 4 Clemson picked up a fairly short number in Saturday's 7:30 p.m. game at Notre Dame.

Why are the undefeated Tigers just a 3.5-point favorite, according to FanDuel Sportsbook, over a 5-3 squad?

Here are a couple of theories:

Venue: Notre Dame Stadium is gonna have a strong orange presence for this game, but it's still going to be an intimidating environment. Several Tigers played here two years ago and know how easy it is to get caught up in the pageantry of playing at a historic site. There will be a lot of distractions on this road trip.

Weather: It's not going to be favorable for aerial attacks in South Bend, Indiana. Rain and wind early in the day will turn into just wind by kickoff. Expect it to be blowing over 20 mph with gusts in the 30s. That's why the game total has dropped five points in the last four days. Bettors love unders in windy conditions because QBs and receivers have a hard time. Fewer big plays could mean fewer points, which leads to closer contests.

Dabo Swinney: Clemson's head coach is going to be conservative on the road in this environment and weather. Oddsmakers know this. Swinney isn't going to take unnecessary chances or put his team in tough positions. He'll play field position and manage the game to give his team the best shot at leaving with a victory, whether that's by a field goal or two touchdowns.

DJ Uiagalelei: This one might not be fair, but think this through. Uiagalelei is coming off a game in which he got benched for poor play and turning the ball over. Swinney turned to freshman backup Cade Klubnik and the Tigers survived Syracuse, even though Klubnik only threw four passes and wasn't asked to do much. Uiagalelei had played really well for the previous seven games. It was just a bad day. That being said, if has another one and Swinney again elects to turn to Klubnik, that conservative theory becomes reality. That has to be included in this handicap, and oddsmakers know it.

The Irish: As big a hole as the 0-2 start to the season was for Notre Dame, combined with a horrendous loss to a bad Stanford team, Marcus Freeman's squad has been playing better as of late. They dismantled Syracuse, a team Clemson had to rally past, 41-24 last week. The run game has produced over 200 rushing yards in four of the last five games. Possessions could be limited. Clemson might not run many plays, therefore the score might not get out of hand if ND can pick up first downs and play ball control.

With all of that above, it still feels like too short a number. Clemson is coming off an open date and has healed bumps and bruises. Being well-rested should lead to good execution, and Swinney has stressed that his team is so close to putting together that complete effort.

And Clemson should be good this week. There aren't a lot of excuses, but there could be a lot of variables. Notre Dame has played some games this year where things have gotten weird. The Irish have one of the best starting field positions on offense in the nation. But advanced stats make them look fairly average. So does the overall record.

If the Tigers can load up and keep ND running backs Audric Estime and Logan Diggs from picking up good yards on first and second down, it's going to force the Irish to convert third-and-longs, something they aren't built to do with QB Drew Pyne. He's an adequate passer if it's third-and-3 and the defense isn't sure what's coming.

Michael Mayer is one of the best tight ends in the country, but he'll likely be followed around by athletic hybrid linebacker Barrett Carter, who missed the Syracuse game because of a concussion.

Offensively, Clemson should have some success of its own in the run game. Notre Dame's defense ranks 99th nationally in EPA per rush and 95 in rushing success rate. If the Tigers don't shoot themselves in the foot like last game and protect the football, they'll have opportunities to be efficient, and they're one of the best red-zone scoring teams in the country.

Betting picks

Spread: Clemson

Total: Under (43.5)

Best bet (3-5): While it was nice to get a week off, it wouldn't have been good to build on the momentum as we hit our last play of running back Will Shipley going over his rushing total with ease. Let's stick with a player prop, one that has some extra kick to it. This is going to be a heavy run kind of game, and Uiagalelei has been effective with his legs. Remember the bootleg play against NC State that he scored on? Clemson might do something creative like that for this game, so let's go with Uiagalelei anytime TD scorer at +195. He must run it into the end zone. A pass doesn't count.

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