Duke at NC State: Preview and Tale of the Tape

ShawnKrest

Duke makes the short trip to NC State after winning back-to-back home games against FSU and Notre Dame and running its winning streak to seven games. The Blue Devils are in first place in the ACC as 12-2, 22-3 overall.

The Wolfpack is on the NCAA bubble and in need of a signature win after missing out last season. NC State is 7-7, 16-9 overall. The Pack just finished winning two of three on a road trip, with victories at Syracuse and Miami before losing at Boston College. State has lost its last two home games, however.

State has size inside in ACC blocked shot leader Manny Bates and 6-foot-10 junior D.J. Funderburk. They’ll try to contain Duke freshman center Vernon Carey Jr.

The game also features two of the top point guards in the ACC in Duke’s Tre Jones and NC State’s Markell Johnson.

Tale of the tape

KenPom rating: Duke 2, NC State 60

Torvik: Duke 4, NC State 62

Torvik prediction: Duke 78-72

NET ranking: Duke 6, NC State 60

SOS: Duke 16, NC State 91

Quad 1 record: Duke 6-1, NC State 4-3

Tempo: Duke No. 37 nationally, NC State No. 104

When Duke has the ball (Duke offense vs. NC State defense per Torvik)

Efficiency: Duke 115.7 (No. 8 nationally), NC State 96.7 (No. 82)

Effective shooting: Duke 54.0% (No. 21), NC State 47.9% (No. 108)

Turnover percentage: Duke 18.3% (No. 124), NC State 20.2% (No. 96)

Rebounding percentage: Duke 35.4% (No. 15), NC State 29.7 (No. 255)

Free throw rate: Duke 33.9 (No. 138), NC State 34.8 (No. 236)

Three-point shooting: Duke 35.5% (No. 63), NC State 32.3% (No. 133)

Two-point shooting: Duke 54.3 (No. 25), NC State 47.7% (No. 112)

Free throw shooting: Duke 70.2 (No. 194), NC State 70.2 (No. 150)

Blocked shot percentage: Duke 8.7% (No. 156), NC State 12.2 (No. 39)

When NC State has the ball (Duke defense vs. NC State offense)

Efficiency: Duke 89.5 (No. 8), NC State 108.6 (No. 52)

Effective shooting: Duke 45.2% (No. 27), NC State 50.5% (No. 124)

Turnover percentage: Duke 21.6% (No. 45), NC State 16.9% (No. 52)

Rebounding percentage: Duke 28.0% (No. 170), NC State 28.6% (No. 164)

Free throw rate: Duke 30.4 (No. 137), NC State 28.7 (No. 278)

Three-point shooting: Duke 28.3% (No. 9), NC State 31.7% (No. 252)

Two-point shooting: Duke 46.2% (No. 69), NC State 52.2% (No. 68)

Free throw shooting: Duke 65.6 (No. 16), NC State 70.5 (No. 185)

Blocked shot percentage: Duke 13.6% (No. 22), NC State 8.5% (No. 128)

NC State leaders:

C.J. Bryce: 14.0 ppg, 6.1 rebounds

Markell Johnson: 12.6 ppg, 6.5 assists

DJ Funderburk: 12.2 ppg, 5.8 rebounds

The key:

The guard matchup will be an important one. Johnson is one of the most talented points in the country, but his attention tends to drift and he’s had some inexplicable bad outings this year. He’ll likely be dialed in for the matchup against Jones and Duke. The Blue Devils will need to defend the perimeter as State has several potential three-point threats.

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