Duke, UNC Recruiting Battle: How do High School Ratings Translate to College Careers?
Sports Illustrated did a story highlighting Duke and North Carolina’s 2020 recruiting classes, ranked No. 2 and No. 3 in the nation, respectively. The story asked just how close the two classes were to each other.
At Blue Devil Country, we looked at the members of each class, head-to-head, to try to answer that question. The verdict: Duke pulled out a tight 3-2 win in the head-to-head matchups and still had one extra recruit who won via a bye.
In order to do the head-to-head comparison, we looked at each recruit’s ranking, based on the major services: 247Sports, Rivals and ESPN.
Of course, ratings aren’t always a reliable judge of how a prospect’s career will go in college. Does a one or two-spot edge in the rankings—or even a 10 or 20-spot edge—really mean that a recruit will be more productive in college?
To look at that, we continued our head-to-head recruit battles back in time, to look at past Carolina and Duke classes, to see how often the higher-ranked recruit was the better college player. As in the 2020 comparison, we matched up the recruits based on relative ranking—The top-ranked in each school’s class went head-to-head, followed by each school’s No. 2, and so on. If the schools had different numbers of recruits in a year, we ignored the lowest-ranked “extra” recruits for the school that had more.
Class of 2019:
Post high-school rankings: Duke had a 3-1 edge.
Vernon Carey Jr. vs. Cole Anthony: The UNC-bound point guard, Anthony was No. 4 nationally, two ahead of Duke center Carey. Anthony was an exciting player, but injury cost him a month, while Carey won national freshman of the year.
Pre college edge: Anthony. Post college: Carey
Matthew Hurt vs. Armando Bacot: Hurt had a 15-spot edge (No. 12 to No. 27) in recruiting ranking. Both were inconsistent as freshmen and have work to do before thinking about the NBA.
Pre: Hurt. Post: Incomplete, but currently Bacot
Wendell Moore Jr. vs. Anthony Harris
Cassius Stanley vs. Jeremiah Francis
Moore and Stanley were both part of Duke’s regular rotation. Harris and Francis battled injury at UNC and played sparingly.
Pre and post: Moore and Stanley.
Summary: Duke maintains its 3-1 edge, but two of the matchups flipped, one in each direction.
Class of 2018:
Post high-school rankings: Duke had a 3-0 edge.
RJ Barrett vs. Nassir Little: Duke’s Barrett was the higher-rated recruit coming in, and each player’s one year in school did nothing to change that.
Pre and post: Barrett
Cam Reddish vs. Coby White: Duke’s Reddish was No. 2 nationally, White No. 25. Reddish found himself playing third banana to Barrett and Zion Williamson, however, while White starred in his year at Carolina.
Pre: Reddish. Post: White.
Zion Williamson vs. Leaky Black: Absolute carnage. No other commentary needed.
Pre and post: Zion.
Summary: One flip, as Carolina cuts Duke’s edge from 3-0 to 2-1.
Class of 2017
Post high-school rankings: Duke had a 5-0 edge.
Marvin Bagley III vs. Jalek Felton: Bagley was ACC player of the year. Felton was dismissed from school mid-year.
Pre and post: Bagley
Trevon Duval vs. Garrison Brooks: This was a mismatch coming out of high school. Duval was No. 6, while Brooks was No. 131. Duval’s one year at Duke was inconsistent, and he drew criticism for posting photos of a dunk at halftime of a loss to North Carolina. Brooks has developed into UNC’s best player.
Pre: Duval. Post: Brooks.
Wendell Carter Jr. vs. Brandon Huffman: Carter was dominant in his year in Durham. Huffman never cracked the rotation and recently announced his transfer.
Pre and post: Carter.
Gary Trent Jr. vs. Andrew Platek: Trent was a solid shooter and scorer in his year. Platek has been a rotation player but not a star.
Pre and post: Trent
Alex O’Connell vs. Sterling Manley: O’Connell was a regular before transferring for his senior year. Manley has battled injury.
Pre and post: O’Connell, but Manley could flip it if he has a strong two remaining years.
Summary: One flip, as Carolina cut’s Duke’s edge from 5-0 to 4-1.
Class of 2016
Post high-school rankings: Duke has a 3-0 edge.
Harry Giles vs. Tony Bradley: Giles (No. 2) never fully recovered from his high school injuries during his year in Durham. Bradley (No. 25) was a valuable sixth man in UNC’s run to the national title.
Pre: Giles. Post: Bradley
Jayson Tatum vs. Seventh Woods: Tatum starred after injury delayed the start of his one year in Durham. Woods was a backup point guard who transferred for his senior year.
Pre and post: Tatum
Frank Jackson vs. Brandon Robinson: Jackson (No. 13) was a starter in his year in Durham. Robinson (No. 60) developed into a solid four-year player for Carolina.
Pre: Jackson. Post: Robinson.
Summary: UNC turned a 3-0 Duke edge into a 2-1 win by flipping two matchups.
Class of 2015
Post high-school rankings: Duke had a 2-0 edge.
Brandon Ingram vs. Kenny Williams: Ingram was a star in his year in Durham. Williams developed into a productive four-year player at UNC.
Pre and post: Ingram, but Williams narrowed the edge
Derryck Thornton vs. Luke Maye: Thornton (No. 14) started at point for a year then transferred out of frustration with his role. Maye No. 155) went from a preferred walk-on to a scoring and rebounding machine for UNC and hit a crucial game-winning shot in Carolina’s run to the title.
Pre: Thornton. Post: Maye
Summary: UNC flipped one matchup to turn a 2-0 Duke edge into a 1-1 tie.
Class of 2014
Post high-school rankings: Duke had a 3-0 edge
Jahlil Okafor vs. Justin Jackson: Both were ACC Players of the Year, NCAA champions and first-team All-Americans. Okafor (No. 1) had a better peak, but Jackson (No. 9) had three high-level years to Okafor’s one.
Pre: Okafor. Post: Jackson
Tyus Jones vs. Theo Pinson: Another tough matchup between a Duke one-and done and a career player from UNC. Jones was the spark plug of Duke’s title team. Pinson was a versatile glue player for Carolina.
Pre and post: Jones
Justise Winslow vs. Joel Berry II: Winslow (No, 13) was another one-and-done and key player for the 2015 champions. Berry (No. 30) became a star for the Tar Heels.
Pre: Winslow. Post: Berry.
Summary: UNC flipped two to turn a 3-0 Duke edge into 2-1 UNC
Class of 2013:
Jabari Parker vs. Isaiah Hicks
Pre and post: Parker
Semi Ojeleye vs. Kennedy Meeks
Pre: Ojeleye. Post: Meeks.
Matt Jones vs. Nate Britt
Pre and post: Jones
Summary: UNC flipped one to cut a 3-0 Duke edge to 2-1.
Class of 2012:
Rasheed Sulaimon vs. Marcus Paige
Pre: Sulaimon. Post: Paige
Amile Jefferson vs. Brice Johnson
Pre: Jefferson. Post: Johnson
Summary: Jefferson-Johnson was a tight matchup, but UNC flipped one to force a 1-1 tie.
Overall: Duke had a 24-1 edge in the high-school rankings. UNC flipped at least one advantage in each class, however, to cut Duke’s edge to 15-10.
