How History Boosts Duke Chances Against Michigan

Duke has had success in matchups with Wolverines over the years.

Feb 14, 2026; Durham, North Carolina, USA; Duke Blue Devils head coach Jon Scheyer (right) directs his team during the second half against the Clemson Tigers at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rob Kinnan-Imagn Images | Rob Kinnan-Imagn Images

The No. 3-ranked Duke Blue Devils (24-2, 13-1 ACC) are gearing up for their biggest test of the entire 2025-26 campaign thus far, as they will head to Washington, D.C. to take on No. 1 Michigan at Capital One Arena this Saturday. Tip-off is slated for 6:30 pm ET.

Duke is riding high heading into the matchup. After its crushing buzzer-beater defeat in Chapel Hill against North Carolina (20-6, 8-5 ACC), Duke has rattled off three straight victories by an average margin of 22 points.

Feb 10, 2026; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Duke Blue Devils head coach Jon Scheyer reacts on the court against the Pittsburgh Panthers during the first half at Petersen Events Center. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images | Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

Most recently, the Blue Devils dominated Syracuse (15-12, 6-8 ACC) at Cameron Indoor Stadium, taking down the Orange 101-64 on Monday night.

The Wolverines themselves, however, are coming into the heavyweight bout on quite a hot streak as well. Michigan has won 11 games in a row, most recently downing No. 7 Purdue 91-80 at Mackey Arena on Tuesday night.

Feb 16, 2026; Durham, North Carolina, USA; Duke Blue Devils guard Cayden Boozer (2) makes a call during the second half against the Syracuse Orange at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Zachary Taft-Imagn Images | Zachary Taft-Imagn Images

This is a contest between the top two teams in both the NCAA NET Rankings and at KenPom. Duke and Michigan each own 10 Quadrant 1 wins, tied for the most of any team in college basketball this season, along with Arizona.

Michigan has proven it is likely a slightly better overall squad than the Blue Devils, but history suggests Duke has a great chance to win.

Series History Between Michigan and Duke Favors Blue Devils

Michigan has looked like one of the most dominant teams in recent memory at times this season, taking down 10 opponents by 30 points or more. The Blue Devils will have to match the physicality inside of an elite Wolverines interior, featuring 6'9" Morez Johnson, 6'9" Yaxel Lendeborg, and 7'3" Aday Mara.

However, the series history between the two schools suggests that Duke can secure a signature win on Saturday.

Feb 17, 2026; West Lafayette, Indiana, USA; Michigan Wolverines forward Yaxel Lendeborg (23) defends against Purdue Boilermakers guard Omer Mayer (17) during the first half at Mackey Arena. Mandatory Credit: Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images | Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images

Duke leads the all-time series with Michigan 22-8. Additionally, in the six games between the two programs that have come on a neutral floor, the Blue Devils are 6-0.

The last time Michigan took down Duke was during the 2008-09 season, when the Wolverines won 81-73 in Ann Arbor.

Feb 7, 2026; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; Duke Blue Devils guard Isaiah Evans (3) with the ball as North Carolina Tar Heels guard Seth Trimble (7) defends in the first half at Dean E. Smith Center. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

Duke Could Cement Top Overall Seed With Victory

Michigan is 25-1 and currently the projected No. 1 overall seed in the 2026 NCAA Tournament. If the Blue Devils are able to pick up a massive win this weekend, they will likely take over the top spot in NCAA Tournament projections as well as the top spot in the AP Poll.

Duke has proven it can beat elite teams, but Michigan is a different monster.

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