Duke bowl math: Week three update

Most of the preseason predictions had Duke struggling to reach six wins and bowl eligibility, with optimistic prognostications having the Blue Devils just over the mark and the more cynical ones having Duke just shy.

The non-conference schedule, which featured CFB Playoff teams Alabama and Notre Dame, were making things difficult, requiring Duke to finish at least .500 in ACC play to have a legitimate shot at six wins.

Things are looking a little better for Duke's chances, now. The Blue Devils didn't get an upset over 'Bama, the ACC has had a rough start to the year, making the six-win plateau seem a little bit easier to reach.

Here's a look at Duke's remaining schedule. Win probabilities are calculated by ESPN's CFB Power Index and the Tableau college football prediction model.

Game	ESPN win prob.<br>	Tableau win prob.<br>	Comment
at Virginia Tech	52.8%	56.7%	Barely escaped Furman game with a win. Game has now moved to likely Duke win.
Pitt	58.1%	74.84%	Put a scare into Penn State. Numbers still favor Duke
Georgia Tech	84.9%	90.37%	Lost at home to The Citadel. It's going to be a long season
at Virginia	25.6%	48.27%	Beat FSU to establish themselves as Coastal contenders.
at North Carolina	38.3%	50.98%	Lost to Wake but is definitely a surprise team. Has gone from likely win to toss up.
Notre Dame	14.7%	32.26%	Every bit as good as advertised
Syracuse	71.3%	62.16%	Hung with Clemson for awhile. The beat down by Maryland flipped this game to the win column
at Wake Forest	43.9%	49.11%	Surprise 3-0 team who could be much better than expected.
Miami	32.9%	58.37%	Pounded Bethune Cookman, but still a slow start to the season.

So ESPN's probabilities have Duke with 6.2 wins. Tableau has the Blue Devils with 7.2 wins.

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