Duke Up Four Spots in New ESPN FPI Rankings

Blue Devils expected to win 6.2 games

ESPN released its preseason Football Power Index (FPI) rankings for the 2020-21 season, and the statistical model likes Duke’s chances of making a bowl.

The Blue Devils ranked No. 60 nationally in the FPI rankings, up four from the initial rankings released in February. The addition of Clemson graduate transfer quarterback Chase Brice is likely the big driver of the four-spot jump.

The Blue Devils are No. 10 in the 14-team ACC and No. 6 in the seven-team ACC Coastal Division. That’s up one spot in both the conference and division from the February rankings.

According to ESPN’s calculations, Duke is expected to have 6.2 wins and 5.8 losses next season, which would qualify the Blue Devils for a low-level bowl game. Duke plays the No. 69 strongest schedule in the country.

Duke has a 0 percent chance of winning out or making the national championship game, although the Blue Devils have a four percent chance of winning the Coastal and a 0.1 percent chance of winning the ACC Championship Game.

Here’s a look at Duke’s schedule for next season with FPI probabilities of winning.

The Sept. 5 opponent, Middle Tennessee State, has a ranking of 123, down from 92 in February. Duke has a 90.7 percent chance of winning.

Elon, an FCS opponent, is next. The Phoenix doesn’t have a FPI ranking, which is only given to FBS teams. Duke’s win probability is 96.0 percent.

The Blue Devils host Charlotte next. The 49ers are No. 112, down one from February. Duke has an 84.2 percent win probability.

Duke travels to Pitt on Sept. 26. The Panthers are No. 56, down from 43 in February. Duke has a 39.8 percent win probability, its first below 50/50 of the season.

Next is a home game against Wake Forest. The Deacs are No. 65, up three spots from February. Duke has a 60 percent win probability.

A road game at NC State is on the schedule for Oct. 10. The Pack has dropped substantially in the last three months, coming in at No. 77, down from No. 59. Duke has a 50.8 percent chance of winning.

The rivalry game against the Tar Heels comes up on Oct. 17. The Tar Heels are No. 29, down from No. 18, but Duke has just a 33 percent win probability.

After a bye week, Duke travels to Notre Dame on Halloween. This is the lowest-probability win of the season for Duke. The Irish are No. 16, down from No. 9 in February, but Duke has just an 11 percent win probability.

The Blue Devils go to Atlanta the following week to play Georgia Tech. It’s their third straight game with a sub-50 percent win probability. Tech is No. 50, up from No. 55, and Duke has just 35.4 percent odds.

A Friday game at home against Virginia is next up for Duke. The Cavs have also had a steep drop, from No. 47 in February to No. 71 now. That gives Duke a 63.1 percent chance of win, the only game in the last six where the Blue Devils will be favored.

On Nov. 21, Duke hosts Virginia Tech. The Hokies are No. 18, up from 25, and Duke has a 25.1 percent win probability.

Duke closes out the regular season with a trip to Miami. The Hurricanes are No. 51, down from No. 37. The Blue Devils have a 35.7 percent chance of winning.