Painting Florida's Path to Defend Title in NCAA Tournament

The bracket is set for the No. 4 Florida Gators, who earned a one-seed in the South Region on Sunday after finishing the year 26-7. It is now the Gators’ third time making the NCAA Tournament under head coach Todd Golden and fourth time Florida is a No. 1 seed.

As honorable as it is to be the top seed in the South Region, though, that does not mean it is a guarantee they make it back to the national championship game to defend their title.

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Here is the path back to the national championship for Florida, with predictions for every round.

Round of 64 (Friday, March 20 – Tampa): No. 16 Prairie View A&M/Lehigh

Florida kicks their tournament off with either Prairie View A&M or Lehigh on Friday. It should be a fairly predictable matchup between either team, with the Gators as the obvious favorite.

Coming off an ugly loss to the Vanderbilt Commodores, there could be some hangover from that defeat in the SEC Tournament semifinals. However, it is hard to believe that the Gators drop their opening game.

The telling stat for both teams is that each is running a deficit on rebounds. Prairie View A&M is getting out-rebounded by 3.7 per game, while Lehigh is getting out-rebounded by four. With that being the case, the Gators' frontcourt should dominate the game and carry the team into the next round.

Prediction: Florida, 95-67

Round of 32 (Sunday, March 22 – Tampa): No. 9 Iowa

Waiting for the Gators in the next round is the winner of eight-seed Clemson and nine-seed Iowa, in which Florida Gators on SI has Iowa winning.

Having a go-to guy makes it an easy choice, with the Hawkeyes having point guard Bennett Stirtz, a highly touted NBA draft prospect. Luckily for Florida, they have a top defender on the perimeter in Boogie Fland to match up with him.

Iowa Hawkeyes guard Bennett Stirtz is a highly touted NBA Draft prospect. | David Banks-Imagn Images

The Hawkeyes offense is not as potent as one would think, having Stirtz, but they are defensively sound. Iowa is allowing 66 points per game, which ranks No. 17 in the country.

Still, size wins out more often than not when Florida is involved, and Iowa lacks size. Only two players are listed as 6-foot-10 or above.

Prediction: Florida, 85-70

Sweet 16 (Thursday, March 26 - Friday, March 27 – Houston): No. 5 Vanderbilt

Vanderbilt/McNeese and Nebraska/Troy are the other teams on Florida’s side. Based on these matchups, the Commodores and Cornhuskers are advancing to the next stage. Then, from Vanderbilt and Nebraska, it is the Commodores keeping their hopes alive with a win.

That means the Gators get a rematch with the Commodores, in what can be considered a rubber match. Florida took the first one while Vanderbilt got revenge in the SEC Tournament Semifinal.

Vanderbilt upset Florida in the SEC Tournament. | Steve Roberts-Imagn Images

Unlike the conference tournament outcome, it should be a tightly contested battle between the two. One would think Florida’s offense regresses to the mean, making it a single-digit win for either side.

Florida Gators on SI holds the belief that Golden makes the necessary adjustments to limit the Commodores on the 3-point line, and the turnovers become less of a problem for the offense.

Prediction: Florida, 92-88

Elite Eight (Saturday March 28 - Sunday, March 29 – Houston): No. 2 Houston

Even though Illinois’ defense is statistically good, it is no Houston when it comes to that area. That being said, Houston comes out of the lower side of the South Region, meaning it is a rematch, once again, for the Gators in the Elite Eight.

At first glance, Houston had the Florida Gators on SI’s pick. However, that thought has since changed.

Will Richard — Florida defeated Houston in last year's national championship. | Kyle Lander / Gators Illustrated

Florida's defense has taken a step forward this season, while the offense has had to figure out different avenues to success. Houston’s physicality at both the frontcourt and backcourt can pose a threat for the Gators, but ultimately, Florida gets it done.

Houston has shown that they need star freshman Kingston Flemings to be his best version, or the game becomes increasingly challenging for the team. As such, Fland does what's necessary on Fleming, and the Gators score enough against a deadly defense to continue.

Prediction: Florida, 74-67

Final Four (April 4 – Indianapolis): No. 1 Duke

Undeniably, Duke earned the No. 1 ranking in the AP Top 25 and the best seed overall in the NCAA Tournament. That makes them, on paper, the best team in March Madness.

However, it should not be taken lightly that the Gators, in their worst form, took the Blue Devils to the wire in Cameron Indoor, with the home team needing a last-second three to secure a victory.

Florida lost a nail-biter to Duke in non-conference play. | Matt Pendleton / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Florida has played its best basketball in March, outside of the SEC tournament, and Condon is playing at a high level both ways.

Florida defense barrels down enough on projected top-three pick Cam Boozer and gets quality play from its stars to squeak past Duke.

Prediction: Florida, 77-72

National Championship (April 6 – Indianapolis): No. 1 Arizona

In a likely one-seed versus one-seed game between the Arizona Wildcats and Michigan Wolverines, it is the Wildcats scrapping their way into the finale.

That leads to a Florida-Arizona national championship. It is a storybook ending, too, with the team’s final game being a rematch of each’s season-opener.

Arizona upset Florida in this season's season-opener in Las Vegas. | Candice Ward-Imagn Images

Arizona’s Koa Peat had an all-time performance in the season-opening win over Florida, but the Gators’ frontcourt has blossomed into arguably the best in the country now. They also would love to make amends for their defense against Peat and the Wildcats.

That said, Florida repeats as the winner of the big dance to become back-to-back national champions. Fland and Xaivian Lee have developed since the first game, and the emergence of Florida’s bench makes them that much better.