Florida Gators Ranked No. 12 in ESPN's FPI Rankings
While the Gators and all other NCAA competition are currently in a stand-still, the sports world still has a way to sorting through which will come out on top.
Since 2013, ESPN has used a ranking system based on FPI, or Football Power Index, in an effort to predict the outcomes for not only the upcoming season but also as the season progresses.
However, ESPN makes sure to note that the rankings do not necessarily constitute playoff rankings as they have another system based on strength of schedule and other key performance indicators to establish which four teams should make the playoffs.
For now, the Gators are ranked 12th in FPI, and it is important to understand how ESPN comes to such a conclusion.
While these are not all of the factors, some of the variables used in preseason FPI rankings are:
- Prior performances, based on the most recent year's expected points added, however, it also uses the previous three season's performance to account for any outliers, the recent year is accounted for twice.
- Returning starters on offense and defense, ESPN also accounts especially for returning quarterbacks with starting experience.
- Recruiting ranking. Recruiting services such as ESPN, Rivals, Scout, and Phil Steele are all used to measure the talent on the team's roster for an additional piece of information.
- Coaching tenure. Only used typically for an incoming head coach.
For more information on how ESPN uses these rankings, check it out here.
As mentioned above, the Gators land at No. 12, according to ESPN, with an FPI of 19.2. Their projected win-loss record is slated to be 9.7-2.7, meaning 9-3 or 10-2 as the likely targets. They are ranked below the following teams: Texas, Oklahoma, Auburn, Oregon, Penn State, LSU, Georgia, Wisconsin, Alabama, Ohio State, and Clemson.
While it may be shocking to see Auburn (9th, 20.7) listed ahead of the Gators, considering the team beat them last season, it is important to remember the two teams compete against different opponents since the Gators fall in the SEC East, Auburn, west.
The Gators' % chance to win their division is listed at 39.8%, with their conference chances set at 12.5%, playoff chances, 8.1%, and chance to win the National Championship set at .9%
Entering 2020, the Gators will face a significant challenge.
They'll be tasked with replacing the majority of their offensive weapons, while at the same time, relying on an incredibly young defense which also lost significant talent to the NFL this season, including both starting defensive ends, Jabari Zuniga and Jonathan Greenard, an All-SEC cornerback in CJ Henderson, and the team's unquestioned leader at middle linebacker in David Reese II.
While the team will return starting quarterback Kyle Trask, his past does not include significant starting experience, but should not be counted severely against the Gators as of right now. Florida is currently ranked 8th in recruiting during the 2020 cycle, according to ESPN, one behind Auburn.
While these rankings are nothing more than essentially Vegas odds, it is intriguing to see the Gators viewed in a different, more statistical, light than previously done before. The Gators will likely overcome the 12th position, however, the team finished only 9th last season.
Time will tell whether these rankings turn out to be accurate or not, but, for now, it's food for thought, absolutely.
