Looking Back, and Forward, on Expectations for the Florida Gators in 2022

What were the expectations for Billy Napier's first season at Florida, how close did the Gators come to meeting them, and what is left to be done before the end of the year?

Photo: Anthony Richardson and Billy Napier; Credit: Alex Shepherd 

Note: This story features the opinion of All Gators publisher Zach Goodall.

Billy Napier's first season at Florida was a roller-coaster. 

It began when the unranked Gators upset No. 7 Utah in Week 1 and ended with Florida's first loss to Florida State since 2017. In between, UF clinched its second losing season within the SEC in a row, a streak the program had not repeated since the late 1950s. 

There were flashes of promise along the way, though. Think of the narrow, 38-33 road loss to a Tennessee team that eventually, and briefly, stood at No. 1 in the College Football Playoff rankings, the 41-24 victory over Texas A&M at Kyle Field, and the 38-6 thrashing of a South Carolina team that went on to beat then-No. 5 Tennessee and then-No. 8 Clemson in the two weeks to follow.

The final result: The Gators were just able to earn bowl eligibility, reaching the necessary six wins by Week 11 but not surpassing that total in the regular season.

We didn't create preseason record predictions to validate the All Gators staff's expectations for Florida in 2022, but prior to Week 1, Pat Forde of Sports Illustrated asked me to forecast the season as best as I could and assess the fanbase's conjectures leading into Napier's first campaign in Gainesville.

These were my answers:

How hungry are the fans?

“Napier has tried his hardest to temper fans’ appetites. Since his introductory press conference, Napier has emphasized the need to restructure every aspect of Florida football, and athletic director Scott Stricklin has given him the resources—a largely-expanded budget and what feels like a 500-member support staff—to make it happen…

"Post-Urban Meyer, every Gators’ coach has overachieved to begin their tenure only to uniquely crash and burn by the end, providing the fanbase with false hope right out of the gate before the coaches ran out of water bottles in attempts to put out their house fires. It may be in the best interest of fans to endure a true rebuilding year before reaping the benefits of a drastic change in approach, and that very well could be the case in 2022.”

Expectations for the season

: “From my perspective, winning eight or more games considering the shape of this roster and the schedule ahead of the Gators would be a success. With success on the recruiting trail providing hope for the future, fans would probably accept an 8-4-ish, third-place-or-better finish in the SEC East.

"But that begs several questions: Will prospects remain committed to the vision of the program if Florida doesn't play up to its standards in Napier's first campaign? What would maintaining those commitments require? Are close losses to the likes of Utah, LSU, Georgia and Texas A&M acceptable from a recruit's perspective? How about losing to both Kentucky and Tennessee, which can't be considered outside the realm of possibility? Of course, perhaps Florida could overachieve and, unlike Mullen, Jim McElwain and Will Muschamp, Napier can continue to elevate as a result of that momentum.”

8-4-ish, third-place-or-better finish in the SEC East didn't happen. The Gators rank fifth in the east with a 6-6 (3-5 SEC) record instead, leaving a bitter taste in the mouths of UF faithful with a replicated regular-season record from 2021 and the team's second loss to Vanderbilt since 1989 to rub salt on the wound.

The overall premise of my expectations held true, though. Florida experienced a legitimate rebuilding year under a first-year head coach, a path Napier's predecessors over the last decade did not take after their hiring. 

He suggested the need to reconstruct UF's roster upon arrival, and while it came with the pain of losing in 2022, Napier expects continual attrition this offseason — calling it "healthy to some degree" on November 16 — with an influx of talent to come from his first full recruiting class on the job, as well as transfer portal departures and likely acquisitions.

To that point, for the most part, Florida's recruiting class has remained intact and continues to grow despite the team's inconsistencies this year. Even after losses to both Kentucky and Tennessee, as suggested above.

With just over three weeks until the class of 2023's early signing period as of the time this article was published, Florida possesses 22 commits and has lost just three since the beginning of the year, one of which had pledged to Mullen's coaching staff in 2021. UF also withdrew the scholarship offer for former quarterback commit Marcus Stokes in November.

Four SI99 members can be found in the haul: Jaden Rashada (No. 3 QB, No. 7 overall), Eugene Wilson III (No. 3 slot WR, No. 59 overall), Aidan Mizell (No. 9 WR, No. 65 overall) and Roderick Kearney (No. 9 OT, No. 96 overall). 

The Gators remain in the mix for several other SI99 recruits too, such as No. 1 OT (No. 5 overall) Samson Okunlola, No. 1 LB (No. 22 overall) Qua Russaw and No. 6 OT (No. 61 overall) Lucas Simmons. Don't forget top cornerback Desmond Ricks either, although his October reclassification from 2024 to 2023 came after the publication of the preseason SI99.

Napier understands the importance of closing the class strong, a necessity that only grew in importance following Florida's season-ending losses to Vanderbilt and in-state rival Florida State.

"I like the group that we've got committed. We need to finish, obviously secure the ones we have and then close on a few others, right?" Napier pondered on October 24. "We worked extremely hard at it, not only the recruitment process but the evaluation process. So far, so good. A lot of work left to do."

Napier has reiterated his confidence in Florida's systems and coaching staff throughout the campaign, suggesting that he followed the same plan to success at Louisiana and sharing his firm belief that he can accomplish similar things with the Gators.

That can only mean one thing, as the results from year one may not offer the casual observer a lot of hope: It's on Napier to improve the talent across Florida's roster in order for the team to fire on all cylinders. 

By that logic, December 21-23 — this cycle's early signing period — should paint a much clearer picture of Florida's trajectory under Napier than the Gators' record in 2022.

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