Picks and Predictions for Florida Gators vs. LSU Tigers
A battle of first-year SEC coaches in The Swamp. Billy Napier and the Florida Gators will host Brian Kelly and the LSU Tigers this Saturday at 7 P.M. in The Swamp in a new edition of one of the conference's most heated rivalries.
Florida is viewed as a 2.5-point favorite over LSU, according to the Sports Illustrated Sportsbook. The over/under is set at 50.5 points.
You can find All Gators' picks and predictions below.
Zach Goodall (4-2): Florida 22. LSU 20
Like many of Florida's recent matchups with LSU, I see this one coming down to the wire. So much so that I think Billy Napier's aggression as a play-caller will lead to the Gators converting a two-point attempt that the Tigers fail to match, ultimately doing them in.
The Tigers' offense doesn't feature many consistent big-play threats aside from quarterback Jayden Daniels when he's on the run.
Now, I know, mobile quarterbacks have given the Gators headaches all season long, but I don't think Daniels will find much success pushing the ball down the field (his completion percentage on passes of 10+ yards is 47.9 percent, per Pro Football Focus), meaning the Tigers will depend on the ground game to create explosive plays with the short passing game serving as a complement. And while three rushing backs have contributed, none have emerged as the go-to guy in LSU's backfield.
Daniels leads the team in rushing attempts and yards, and while Armoni Goodwin has been the most effective back with his touches, he ranks fourth on the team in attempts, averaging 5.6 per game.
Meanwhile, none of LSU's receivers with 10+ receptions average more than 13.9 yards per catch. UF has three qualifying pass-catchers with higher averages: Justin Shorter (22.3), Ricky Pearsall (18.1) and Keon Zipperer (14.3). I like their matchups with an LSU defense that features six coverage defenders with 10+ targets that allow over 10 yards per reception on average, with three players giving up 15+ yards per catch per PFF.
Of course, that will require quarterback Anthony Richardson to play sharp football. That is no guarantee as he's been inconsistent this season, although he's played well in big games such as Utah and Tennessee and the LSU matchup is no different. I believe he'll bounce back this week after a down game against Missouri, maybe not posting a stellar stat line but playing efficient enough football for UF's offense to succeed, similar to Week 1.
He'll also need to pose a similar threat to Daniels on the ground. Richardson, like Daniels for LSU, is UF's leader in rushing attempts, but running backs Montrell Johnson Jr. and Trevor Etienne have proven to be among the most efficient backs in the country this season. That could be an important advantage for Florida compared to LSU's offense, so long as the Tigers' talented defensive line doesn't take away the run.
That possibility leads me to this: If Gators' starting guard O'Cyrus Torrence were unable to play due to his lower-body injury revealed on Wednesday, I would change my pick in favor of the Tigers. My prediction record moving forward will be reflected by my choice above, but in a game where UF will need to control the trenches to pull off a victory, losing a Preseason All-American lineman only hurts the team's chances.
Brandon Carroll (4-2): Florida 31, LSU 26
The Florida Gators have reached their annual matchup with cross-divisional rival LSU looking to avoid dropping their last four contests against the Tigers.
The two teams are pretty evenly matched, having suffered through highs and lows categorized by grave inconsistency to this point in the year. With both teams entering the matchup at 4-2, this has the potential to be a season-defining contest for each program.
However, there is more on the line.
It’s retribution week in Gainesville for the relatively high number of individuals on the Florida squad hailing from the state of Louisiana in some capacity.
This is the game circled on the calendar.
With Billy Napier, running back Montrell Johnson, offensive guard O’Cyrus Torrence (if he plays) and multiple other staff members holding this game highly on the list of must-wins — if not at the top — the Gators will come out of the gate playing inspired football.
As a result, that energy to right what they believe to be LSU’s wrongdoings by not recruiting them or not hiring them trickles down throughout the roster.
The offense ticks at a rate it has when performing at its best, with the good Anthony Richardson being a catalyst for success. Johnson has a big day on the ground in his first official game as the listed starter while wideout Ricky Pearsall produces as a complement to that rushing attack despite LSU ranking in the top 30 in passing yards allowed per game.
Florida’s defense rises to the occasion, stopping Tigers quarterback Jayden Daniels — first as a runner — to give the Gators the edge to overcome the evenly-matched opponent.
Florida walks out of Ben Hill Griffin Stadium with its fifth victory of the season in a close contest. It establishes the Gators as the better of the two rebuilding SEC squads. It aids Florida heading into a crucial bye week before they meet SEC East rival Georgia in Jacksonville on Halloween weekend.
Conner Clarke (5-1): Florida 27, LSU 24
The Florida Gators are coming off their first conference win of the season against Missouri in a game that was predictably pretty strange. But nevertheless, a win is a win, especially in the SEC.
This weekend, they welcome cross-division rival LSU to the Swamp for the first time since the infamous “Shoe Game” in 2020 and are riding a three-game losing streak to the Bayou Bengals, which includes two embarrassing losses to some of the worst LSU teams in recent memory.
However, there is new blood in both programs with first-year head coaches Billy Napier and Brian Kelly set to square off. There are a plethora of Louisiana ties on the staff in Gainesville now with coaches like Jabbar Juluke who was a legendary HS coach in the boot and players Montrell Johnson Jr., O’Cyrus Torrence and Trevor Etienne bring from there. This is also a game that I believe Billy Napier has had circled on his calendar since he took the Florida job. As much as they will try to play it off, this game will be personal.
The aforementioned Johnson and Etienne are two of the top three RBs in the conference in yards per carry at eight and 6.8, respectively, and should be leaned on throughout this game. Last week, the duo really seemed to hit its stride in the second half and could finally be ready to break out. Look for Napier to call some easy throws early to build up Anthony Richardson's confidence before taking a few deep shots that should be there if Florida is able to run the ball successfully.
Florida’s defense looked better in flashes last weekend but we have yet to see both the offense and defense put it together at the same time. LSU’s left side of the offensive line is in limbo with starting left tackle Will Campbell missing last week due to a health scare (he could be back on Saturday) and left guard Garrett Dellinger likely out for Saturday’s game. UF has to be able to get pressure on Jayden Daniels, but most importantly has to keep him contained. He has shown that he is a major threat with his legs.
With that being said, I believe Florida will be locked in and ready for this game after the way the last couple went against the Tigers. Give me the Gators here.
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