ACC Tournament Preview: FSU Basketball vs. North Carolina Tar Heels
After a hard-fought win on Wednesday afternoon against Virginia Tech, Florida State gets a third crack at the top-seeded North Carolina Tar Heels. UNC has won both games this season, but FSU has played the Tar Heels as hard as anyone has.
For those looking for hope, the last time UNC was coming off a win over Duke this season, they lost the next game to Clemson. Also, the last time they swept Duke in a season, they lost to Florida State in the ACC Tournament in 2021. There's always a chance.
This game will once again be at noon on ESPN, live from the Capital One Arena in Washington, D.C.
#4 North Carolina Tar Heels Review (25-6 Overall, 17-3 ACC)
Once again, I won't go into too much detail since these teams have played twice and it's a quick turnaround.
Florida State played at North Carolina on December 2nd, then again in Tallahassee on January 27th. UNC lost that next game at Georgia Tech as one of just three ACC losses this year, but that game showed they have some cracks in the armor.
Still, they went on to dominate most of the conference, going 17-3 and sweeping Duke on their way to the top seed in the ACC, and all three of those losses came in two weeks from January 30th to February 13th: at Georgia Tech, vs Clemson, and at Syracuse.
RJ Davis continued his tremendous start to the season, going on to rightfully be named ACC Player of the Year and All-ACC First Team. For the season, he averaged 21.1 PPG while shooting 41.6% from 3. He's simply been tremendous all year and is going to be priority number one on Florida State's scouting report.
Armando Bacot somehow made the All-ACC Second Team, a little ridiculous if you ask me. That's the benefit of playing for a North Carolina school, I guess. He averaged 13.3 PPG and 9.8 RPG in conference play and is averaging 10.2 PPG and 9 RPG over his last five games. Bacot really struggled the last time they played against Florida State, finishing with just 5 points and 4 rebounds while only attempting 4 shots in 34 minutes played. FSU would like to similarly limit his impact in this game.
Cormac Ryan is coming off a career-high 31 points against Duke on Saturday. His previous high this season had been 20 points, so to come out and carry UNC in a rivalry win by going 6/8 from 3 feels like an outlier. I just have a feeling he's going to come out with a dud.
Harrison Ingram made All-ACC 3rd Team whole averaging 12.5 PPG and 9.8 RPG this season. He's hit 37.4% of his 3s but just 60% from the free throw line.
Here are video recaps of both games, in case you need a refresher.
Florida State Seminoles Review (17-15 Overall, 11-10 ACC)
The 'Noles very easily could've won both games against UNC this year, despite the final scores. In the first game in December, it was a back-and-forth affair, with multiple lead changes and ties before a late flurry put FSU up 6 at halftime. Florida State went up 45-31 early in the second half after De'Ante Green made a three-pointer and seven minutes later, FSU still had UNC at arm's length, up 56-48 with 10:28 left. Over the next five minutes, North Carolina went on one of their patented 21-0 runs to take a 69-56 lead and the game was effectively over from there. Fletcher would hurt his knee minutes later and all hope was lost as the Heels went on to win 78-70.
When the Tar Heels came to the Tucker Center in late January, UNC dominated the majority of the first half, going up 19-8 in the first 6-plus minutes of the game, but FSU battled back to take a 41-36 lead at halftime. North Carolina roared out of the locker room, scoring 27 points in the first 8-plus minutes of the second half. Yet, with two minutes left, Florida State was down 2 with Jamir Watkins wide open from 3. UNC's offense had gone ice cold, scoring just 7 points over a 10 minute stretch. FSU was on a 12-4 run as Watkins teed up that three and if he's able to hit, there's a good chance they're able to carry that momentum to a win. Instead, he misses, and FSU has to play the free throw game as UNC goes on to a 75-68 win.
I can assure you that Jamir Watkins still has that game at the front of his mind. Since that miss, he's averaged 18.8 PPG and shot 15/38 from behind the line (39.4%). If you exclude the three games directly following that UNC game, he's 15/33 (45.5%) from deep over his last nine games. He'll make that shot again if he's given the chance. Watkins is coming off a massive 34 points over the Hokies on Wednesday, let's see if he can carry that performance over.
On the flip side, FSU is going to need more out of Darin Green Jr. He had just 3 points against Virginia Tech after having 26 against Miami on Senior Day. This is one of those games where everyone has to rise to the occasion, not just one or two players.
Injury Report
Cam'Ron Fletcher is out for the season with a knee injury.
Projected Starters
North Carolina
G: Elliot Cadeau
G: RJ Davis
G: Cormac Ryan
F: Harrison Ingram
C: Armando Bacot
Florida State
G: Jalen Warley
G: Darin Green Jr.
F: Jamir Watkins
F: Baba Miller
F: Cameron Corhen
Keys to the Game
Consistent Offense, Keep UNC's Runs to a Minimum
Florida State has had plenty of stretches this season of inconsistent offense and you just can't do that against a team like North Carolina. This can't be a game where UNC has one of those 20-0 or 18-2 runs, they're too talented of a team. UNC's defense is much improved, but Jamir Watkins is a hard man to stop on the interior. If the 'Noles can balance his scoring with his solid perimeter shooting, they can give themselves a chance.
Everyone has to step their game up in this one. Darin Green Jr. can't have 3 points like he did against Virginia Tech in their first ACC Tournament game. Cam Corhen has to have a strong game against Armando Bacot. Baba Miller has to limit Harrison Ingram. Everyone has to contribute at a high level.
RJ Davis
The ACC Player of the Year has only had one game in conference play scoring fewer than 14 points. There's very little chance they're going to be able to stop him, but you can limit his effectiveness. In UNC's six losses, he's shooting almost 20 FGAs per game, but making them at a 38.7% mark. If they even get him (or Armando Bacot) in foul trouble by driving to the basket, that would help a lot.
Free Throw Disparity
I didn't mention it in the quick recaps, but North Carolina has had 55 free throw attempts in two games against Florida State while the 'Noles have had 19 against UNC. Mind you, FSU averages 23.2 FTA per game across their other 30 games and has the 4th highest free throw rate in the conference. I never expect the ACC to call a fair game when FSU plays the North Carolina schools (Bacot gets 10 free push-offs per game), but it can't be this lopsided. Please, I'm begging ACC.
Game Prediction
North Carolina is favored by 10.5 points with a projected total of 153.5.
Florida State has played UNC tough all year and they have a solid chance of winning this game. UNC has a potential 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament on the line and can't afford to lose. There's a chance they play tight, but I'm expecting the Tar Heels to win this game while the Seminoles keep it close.
North Carolina 80, Florida State 75
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