Game Preview: Florida State at NC State
It’s going to be incredibly interesting to see how FSU responds in this game after falling apart at the end of the Clemson game, a game they really should’ve won. Now they’ll be playing an NC State team that has one of the better backcourts in the ACC.
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This game will be at 9 pm on the ACC Network, live from the PNC Arena in Raleigh, NC.
NC State Wolfpack Breakdown
After playing the biggest surprise in the ACC in Clemson, FSU now faces the second biggest surprise in the conference in NC State. I had a bold claim saying they'd be the worst team in the league, and I was WAY wrong. The Wolfpack sit at 17-5 with a 7-4 ACC record. They've beaten some good teams in Miami, Dayton, and Duke, and haven't suffered a bad loss yet, with the worst one coming against Pitt, who is also better than expected. They still have some tough games coming up having to play at Virginia, Duke, and Syracuse, but they're going to have a good chance to be a top-4 team in the league come conference tournament time.
This is a fast paced team, top-60 nationally and the fastest in the ACC (FSU is second in the league in tempo), and they can score in bunches, averaging more than 79 points per game. Conference play has brought them back down to earth a little bit, with the average score in NC State's ACC games being a slim 74.9 to 73.2 margin, breaking 80 points just 3 times in 11 games. It's a very opportunistic defense, posting top 30 rates nationally in both steal and block percentage, while also holding teams to shoot just over 30% from 3.
Leading the way is Terquavion Smith, who is a likely first round pick in the upcoming NBA Draft, averaging 18.5 PPG, 4.4 APG, 3.4 RPG, and 1.7 SPG on 38.3/34.1/70.4 shooting splits. He's had the ball in his hands a lot more this season after being more catch and shoot last season, and his shooting has taken a hit, especially inside the arc. He's taking 16 shots per game, and shoots less than 5 free throws per game, just not efficient scoring, but Smith is more than capable of lighting it up if you give him the opportunity. FSU is going to want him to put the ball on the floor in pressure if they can.
Right behind him is Jarkel Joiner, an Ole Miss transfer who began his career at Cal State Bakersfield, and is averaging 16.8 PPG, 4.5 RPG, and 3.4 APG on shooting splits of 43.8/34.4/82.6. He's more efficient inside the arc, his preferred operating area, and takes less than 5 threes per game, while also being a little more willing to get to the free throw line. These two players are one of the better backcourts in the ACC and will likely give FSU a lot of fits.
Casey Morsell has taken a big jump after transferring away from Virginia two seasons ago, and is now averaging 12.5 PPG, 4.5 RPG, and 1.1 SPG on shooting splits of 47.8/43.1/84.8. He's the perfect 3-and-D wing that can lock down your best perimeter defender while shooting well from deep playing off of Joiner and Smith.
DJ Burns is coming off a monster performance against Wake Forest with 31 points and 9 rebounds, well above his season averages of 11.4 PPG and 4.8 RPG. Can he keep this kind of a performance going, or does FSU have a plan to bring him back down to earth a little?
Greg Gantt is a solid rebounder, and has filled in admirably for Jack Clark being hurt. Ernest Ross and LJ Thomas will give this team 12-15 minutes off of the bench, but haven't played particularly well. Injuries to the frontcourt have hurt the depth of this team, you'll really only see the starting 5
Florida State Seminoles Breakdown
So, we have to talk about the end of the Clemson game, as everyone was up in arms about it (unfortunately, didn't have time this weekend to get much writing done). FSU was up 3 with 11 seconds left and lost the game in regulation. That doesn't happen without mistakes. The two biggest mistakes were fouling immediately after the inbound following a timeout, and letting Chase Hunter get to his right hand downhill and allowing him to go coast to coast with little resistance (plus the foul on top). Regarding the foul, I don't think we'll ever get the answer on what was said in the huddle, but I have a hard time believing the staff told the players to foul with that much time on the clock.
Some people were upset with Cameron Corhen shooting the free throws at the end, but he was quite literally the last option on the play, and is an 81% free throw shooter, and was 20/22 in ACC play from the line heading into those shots. Sometimes misses happen, but you can't be mad he was the one at the line in that situation.
Letting Hunter get what he wanted was the biggest travesty. He caught the ball going left to right with momentum to get down the court, and there was little to no resistance from Matthew Cleveland defensively. The and-one was iffy, but just made a bad mistake worse. You would've liked to have a timeout at the end instead of in front of the intentional foul by Darin Green Jr, but FSU has a playcall for those situations, Caleb Mills just missed the trailing Baba Miller and tried to force a shot before attempting to pass it off to the corner. It's such a tough way to lose, especially given the way the game started and how FSU roared back to get a lead at halftime.
The good: Chandler Jackson and Baba Miller had their best games in Florida State uniforms. Jackson finished with 7 points, 2 assists, and 2 steals, and looked dominant at points in the final 10 minutes of the first half. He's ready to see a consistent 16-20 minutes every game; he's playing too well. Miller went for 11 points, 4 rebounds, and an incredible assist coming off of a save under the basket. He started out slow, but really picked it up in the second half. Getting these guys going is going to be huge for the future of this team.
Jalen Warley needs to have a bigger impact than 3 points and 3 assists on the offensive end. He's been great on the ball defensively, but FSU can't afford for him to have these kinds of games.
Injury Report
Jaylan Gainey is out for the season with an ACL injury.
Cam’Ron Fletcher is out for the season with a knee injury.
Jeremiah Bembry is not expected to play this season.
For NC State, Terquavion Smith left the UNC game a week ago on a stretcher after a scary fall, but played through the pain this weekend. He’s apparently dealing with some nerve damage but will continue to play.
Jack Clark is out indefinitely with a hip injury, but is rehabbing well and could come back soon.
Dusan Mahorcic has also been rehabbing and is day-to-day and close to return, not sure if he'll play in this one though.
Projected Starters
NC State
G: Terquavion Smith
G: Jarkell Joiner
G: Casey Morsell
F: Greg Gantt
F: DJ Burns
Florida State
G: Jalen Warley
G: Caleb Mills
G: Darin Green Jr
F: Matthew Cleveland
F: Cameron Corhen
Keys to the Game
Defend Beyond the 3
Terquavion Smith is a weapon from beyond the 3-point line, no matter where he is on the court. Don't let the 34.1% from deep fool you, he's more than capable of lighting any team up. Last year against FSU, he shot 7//13 from deep, then followed it up a couple of weeks later with a 6/9 performance against Louisville. He's having to create off the dribble a little more this season, which is why his numbers are slightly down, but you absolutely cannot let him get smooth catch and shoot releases. Pair that with Casey Morsell, who is shooting 43.1% on more than 5 attempts per game, and you have a very capable shooting backcourt.
Bounce Back
It has to be hard to get motivated after the way the Clemson game ended, especially to go on the road back to Tobacco Road where you know you're not going to get any calls. Can FSU get back up for this game and respond in a big way? I love the way they responded in the first half against Clemson, now they have to do it with a few days to get their mind off of it.
Offensive Rebounding
If FSU can keep NC State below their average offensive rebounding rate of 30.4%, they'll at least have a chance at this one. When NC State is below that offensive rebound rate, they're 4-5. When they're above that mark, they're 13-0. For a Florida State team that has struggled with defensive rebounding, this has to be a point of emphasis in this one.
Game Prediction
NC State is favored by 9.5 points with an over/under of 151.5.
This should be a very up-and-down, fast-paced game. I really just don't expect FSU to bounce back in a big way after the Clemson letdown.
NC State 85 FSU 74
