Game Preview: Florida State Seminoles vs North Florida Ospreys

We're back again, Florida State now looking to avoid a 5th straight loss. If they were to lose this one against UNF though, that small chatter around the program would be shouted through megaphones. This is one FSU has to dominate the way they did the opening games of the season.

Florida State leads this series 7-0 all-time. Never a better time to make it 8-0 than today.

This game will be at 8 p.m. on the ACC Network, live from the Donald L. Tucker Center in Tallahassee, Florida. It's the second game of a seven-game home stand for FSU.

North Florida Ospreys Breakdown (7-5)

UNF is in its 15th season under head coach Matthew Driscoll, someone I actually had the pleasure of knowing throughout high school, becoming friends with one of his sons and we were at their house often. A great man, great family, and a good basketball coach.

The good thing about playing a team like UNF is you know exactly what you're playing against; they don't try to hide it. They are going to shoot a LOT of threes.

Currently, the "Birds of Trey" are pacing the country in 3PA at 34.2 per game, are second in 3PM at 12.1 per game, second in points coming from behind the 3-point line at 43.3% of their points, and are 5th in 3PA Rate. In their last five games, they've shot a total of 191 threes, making 69. Florida State has made 70 threes all season. It's an absurd amount of 3-point shots.

Trying to run them off of the line is easier said than done, they're going to get shots up regardless. Just try to limit the easy looks as best as you can.

UNF has six players shooting at least 3.5 3s per game: Chaz Lanier (6.8 3PA), Nate Lliteras (5.2), Jake Van Der Heijdan (4.4), Jaylen Smith (4.3), Jah Nze (3.9), and Oscar Berry), with Lanier, Nze, Van Der Heijdan, Ametri Moss, and Dorian James all shooting 37.5% or better. It's better to just assume everyone on the roster can shoot it, because they very well can.

Lanier is leading the team with 15.8 PPG, with 59% of his shot attempts coming from behind the 3-point line. He also leads the team in total steals with 18 for the season. He's taken a MASSIVE step forward from where he was in his first three seasons, having already scored more points in 12 games this season (189) than he had in either of his last two seasons where he played every game. Capable on the offensive glass as well.

Ametri Moss is the only other scorer averaging points in double figure, at 11.9 PPG. He's the one guard that prefers to operate inside the arc, as every other guard on the roster has a 3PA rate higher than 50%, and he's well below it, as just 13.1% of his shot attempts are 3s. That kind of differential can be detrimental to a scouting report. You see everyone just letting it fly, and then there's Moss who can use that to his advantage with shot fakes against a switching defense that won't be locked into him specifically. Also good at getting to the free throw line.

Dorian James is their main forward, averaging 9.5 PPG and 6.3 RPG. Him and backup Trent Coleman each average 1.9 offensive rebounds per game.

Nate Lliteras is second on the team in 3PA per game, but is making them at just a 29.8% clip so far this season. He was a career 37.5% shooter at Longwood before coming to USF, so FSU would prefer if this weren't the game he wakes up. Starting guard Oscar Berry has had similar struggles, shooting just 21.4% on 3.5 3PA this season, but shot 41.3% in his first two seasons on 3.3 3PA.

Florida State Seminoles Breakdown (4-5)

The Seminoles have a scoring problem. 91/251 (36.25%) from the floor and 59/157 (37.6%) on 2s since the start of the Georgia game is just not going to get it done, no matter who they're playing.

Scoring was one of my biggest concerns heading into the season. Outside of Darin Green Jr, it was hard to see someone who consistently put the ball in the basket. Jamir Watkins has been a pleasant surprise for the most part, but he was dealing with foul trouble last game against SMU. Green Jr has had issues getting away from off-ball pressure, and teams are starting to be super physical with him, and taking him out of games. There's a reason why a few of his shots came well past the 3-point line in transition; it's the most open he could get.

De'Ante Green has been another pleasant surprise in the wake of Corhen's injury, but he was also dealing with foul trouble against SMU. But he's not a shot creator, he's great at cleaning up down low. If Florida State needs a basket, who can you trust to even get an open one?

Primo Spears could potentially be that guy, but you could tell he was forcing it against SMU. The game was falling out of balance and he was rusty, doing whatever he could to see some shots fall. The end result was going 2/14.

Outside of that... it gets bleak. Jalen Warley is taking 5 shots per game, and has 4 made shots in the last four games. He has also yet to take a 3-pointer this season. The broadcast was celebrating him for knowing what he's good at and what he's not, but eventually, he's going to need to shoot it when he's open just to keep the defense honest. The offense stalls when guys are turning down open shots.

Baba Miller is still learning that he can score on just about anyone when he wants to. The skillset is so clearly there, but he's not yet confident off the dribble and driving, even if he can usually get to the rim easily. I'd love to see him take the next step as a scorer; he has a massive impact as a defender, but his scoring versatility is what NBA teams want to see.

Injury Report

Cameron Corhen is doubtful to play with a broken toe.

Cam'Ron Fletcher is out for the season with a knee injury.

Projected Starters

Florida State

G: Jalen Warley

G: Darin Green Jr

F: Jamir Watkins

F: Baba Miller

F: De'Ante Green

North Florida

G: Ametri Moss

G: Oscar Berry

G: Chaz Lanier

G: Nate Lliteras

F: Dorian James

Keys to the Game

No Open Looks From 3

UNF is going to shoot the 3. It doesn't matter if they're open, contested, on the move, or standing still. They're going to shoot it. They're called the "Birds of Trey" for a reason. All Florida State can try and do is prevent the easy looks. UNF is going to put up 35-40 3s in this game if they can, if Florida State can hold them to 10-13 makes, you consider that a success.

Florida State will likely try to run them off of the line early, contesting with high hands, and maybe even shading a direction or jumping to force a drive, but UNF has enough talented shooters to just sidestep and sink the shot.

Will FSU's Shots Fall?

Florida State's offense has been brutal the last four games, shooting 91/251 (36.25%) from the floor and 59/157 (37.6%) on 2s. That's not acceptable, and FSU is going to have to find ways to make baskets at some point. I would say try and get to the free throw line for some easy confidence, but they're making those at one of the worst rates on the country at just 65.4%.

The coaching staff is doing what it can to draw up easy looks, and so far the players either haven't seen the opportunities, missed the open look when it eventually comes, or turn it down because they aren't confident enough in their own shot. Something has to give.

Defend Without Fouling

As are most teams with good 3-point shooters, UNF is a great free throw shooting team, 9th in the nation at 79.3%. FSU had had some games where they got foul-happy, letting teams shoot 30+ free throws, and if they do that in this game, things could get uncomfortable quickly.

Don't bite on pump fakes, and don't allow UNF chances to get into the body on a drive.

Game Prediction

Florida State is favored by 16.5 points, with an over/under of 150.5.

Realistically, Florida State should win this game by double digits, but as I said last game, I'm picking them to lose every game until they prove otherwise. Maybe FSU's cold streak continues and they can't overcome the onslaught of 3s shot by UNF. There's absolutely a world where that exists.

UNF 72 FSU 70

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