Game Preview: Florida State vs Pittsburgh

The Seminoles look to get back on track against a mediocre Pittsburgh team.

Author:
Austin Veazey
Publish date:
Feb 9, 2022 1:14 AM EST

Florida State is in the midst of a four-game losing streak, during a stretch that a lot of us would've thought they'd be 4-0. Injuries have completely decimated this team, and now they're struggling to even be competitive. In these four losses, they're losing by an average of 10.2 PPG, and those four losses were to Clemson, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, and Pittsburgh. This team's chances of making the tournament are looking slimmer and slimmer after every game. Luckily, there's a chance for FSU to gain some momentum and confidence back with a game against a really bad Pittsburgh team.

Pitt's three conference wins this season have all come at home, and all of their losses on the road in conference play have been by an average of 14.7 PPG, and only the first two were by single digits. In non-conference play, they suffered losses to UMBC, Citadel, and Monmouth, just to name a few. There's arguably not a team that was hit harder by attrition in the ACC from last season. Every good player left, and they replaced them with guys that are average at best. That's hard. They weren't even really a good team last year. Thankfully, this game isn't at Pitt, a place where FSU has had some bad luck.

Florida State is behind in the all-time series 6-14, though they've won 3 of the last 4 at home and 2 straight overall in the series.

This game will be at 9 pm on the ACC Network, live from the Donald L Tucker Center in Tallahassee, FL.

Pittsburgh Panthers (8-16, 3-10) Breakdown

So listen, Pittsburgh isn't good. There is an above average chance that this is Jeff Capel's last season in Western Pennsylvania. This is also their third game in three different cities in the last five days. That's not easy for a college team. They played at home against Virginia Tech on Saturday, then played at VT in a COVID make-up game on Monday, and now have to fly in to play Florida State. They're likely going to be tired, even if the Hokies waxed them off of the floor Monday night 74-47.

Pitt already plays a slow tempo, one of the slowest in the country at around 64 possessions per game. I wouldn't be surprised if they try to keep this game in the 58 possession range because of how short of rest they're on. There is a very good chance that this becomes an extremely frustrating game to watch.

Offensively, the only thing Pitt does well is get to the free throw line with a free throw rate of 42.4%, a really impressive number. They're only making about 69.5% of their free throws currently. Still, about 24% of their overall points this season have come from the free throw line. They don't shoot the 3 particularly well, 32.3% on the year, though they've had a couple of good games from deep, including 50% in each of their last two games against Virginia Tech. They're just as bad inside the arc at 46.1% (national average is 49.7%), and really struggle against teams with length. If only Florida State was fully healthy. They can hit the offensive glass pretty hard, which is something to watch for.

Defensively, they're kind of just there. Teams shoot 35.8% from 3 against them (and shoot a lot of 3s in general against them), they're about average at defending the 2, and that's in big thanks to Mouhamadou Gouye and his 8.9% block rate, which we'll get to a little later. They don't force a ton of turnovers, and really get caught ball watching a lot. The Panthers are one of the worst teams in the country in giving up assisted field goals. They're sometimes too quick to react on a main ball-handler, which is why they give up a lot of 3-point attempts and makes, since a lot of them are wide open looks.

John Hugley is the biggest threat on the team, but it's mainly inside the arc and at drawing fouls. He's only shooting about 15% from 3, but he takes 7 free throws per game. He's someone you have to stay disciplined against and stay on the floor with arms up. Hugley has kind of taken that Justin Champagnie role, he's just not as good of a shooter.

Jamarius Burton is someone I really liked when he was at Wichita State, and someone I wanted FSU to pursue when he entered the transfer portal as a solid combo guard. He instead went to Texas Tech where he... was not good; just 4.3 PPG and 1.1 APG. After one season there, he's now at Pitt, where he's been given more opportunity and he's more towards the player I thought he was at Wichita: 12.9 PPG, 3.7 RPG, and 2.5 APG. He's not the most efficient scorer, but he has good size for a guard.

Femi Odukale reminds me slightly of like a slighter, sophomore year version of Anthony Polite: good shooter but can't hit his free throw, has a knack for the ball on defense, and a solid rebounder for his size. He hits about 36% of his 3s, so more than respectable, but his shot attempts are more than balanced enough from all over the floor. He is also very capable of getting to the free throw line when he wants.

Mouhamadou Gouye is a rare "big" man. At 6'10", 200 pounds, he's averaging 2 blocks per game (elite block rate of 8.9%), hitting 37.6% of his 3s on 3.5 attempts per game, and is making 83.7% of his free throws. There is only one other player in college basketball that is a forward/center averaging 2+ blocks per game, shooting 36%+ from 3, and 80%+ from the free throw line, and that's Jake Stephens at VMI, a player who will have a good chance to win SoCon Player of the Year.

The other guys who you'll see play are Noah Collier (got his first start of the season Saturday, mainly just a rebounder), William Jeffress (really good rebounder for position of a 3), Onyebuchi Ezeakudo (who can really make you pay from deep, shooting 42.5% from 3), and Nate Santos (I'll be honest, don't have much to note on him).

Florida State Seminoles (13-9, 6-6) Breakdown

I legitimately couldn't tell you the last time FSU had a roster this injury-riddled. Up to 5 players could miss the game, and three of them are (likely) out for the season. The closest thing I could think of is early 2019 there were practices I'd be at where Terance Mann, Trent Forrest, Phil Cofer, and MJ Walker were all missing practices, but for the most part, they'd all play (this was the year Cofer missed the first half of the season with a foot injury and Forrest was hampered all year with a bad case of turf toe).

This is really testing Coach Hamilton's depth. Walk-on Harrison Prieto was forced into action against Wake Forest, and to his credit, played really well. 25 minutes and a double-double is something not seen much from any Coach Hamilton player, much less a walk-on, but it also shows how little trust they have in a guy like Quincy Ballard, who played just two minutes. They're now likely going to have to rely on Wyatt Wilkes and Jalen Warley to make major contributions, as well as maybe a guy like Justin Lindner.

Because Pitt plays such a slow tempo, it's going to benefit Florida State a little bit since it won't get to an out of control pace, and guys can get a little bit of a breather here and there. Right now you're looking at a 7-man rotation of RayQuan Evans, Jalen Warley, Caleb Mills, Matthew Cleveland, Wyatt Wilkes, Tanor Ngom, and Harrison Prieto, assuming John Butler and Cam'Ron Fletcher can't go. Safe to say... that's less than ideal.

FSU may have to shoot well from 3 in this game. Pitt doesn't shoot the 3 well, nor defend the arc well. It could be one of the few games this season where FSU has the 3-point advantage. I also wouldn't be surprised to see FSU play a little more zone because of their limited depth.

Injury Report

It's almost becoming easier to list who is actually healthy for Florida State, but anyways...

Malik Osborne is out for the season after having ankle surgery.

Naheem McLeod is out for the season after having surgery on his hand.

Anthony Polite is likely out for the season with a wrist injury.

John Butler and Cam'Ron Fletcher are both questionable for this one for ankle tweaks, they've been in boots the last couple of days.

Tanor Ngom had his knee ran into twice, and left the game twice, against Wake Forest, but he kept playing. He should still be playing in this one.

For Pittsburgh...

Ithiel Horton is likely out for the season after being suspended after striking an officer in December. Charges were dropped two weeks ago, but I don't see him playing.

Nike Sibande is out for the season with a torn ACL.

Projected Starters

Florida State

G: RayQuan Evans

G: Caleb Mills

G: Matthew Cleveland

F: Wyatt Wilkes

C: Tanor Ngom

Pittsburgh

G: Onyebuchi Ezeakudo

G: Jamarius Burton

G: Femi Odukale

F: John Hugley

F: Mouhamadou Gueye

Keys to the Game

Do. Not. Foul.

There is only one thing Pitt is really good at: getting to the free throw line. They're not that great once they get there, shooting only about 69.5% from the line as a team, but they're top-5 in the country at getting there. This is already going to be a slow-paced game, Pitt only averages about 64 possessions in a game, no reason to make it any slower than it has to be.

Ball Pressure

The Panthers are one of the worst teams in the country at giving the ball away, having a turnover rate of about 21.2% on the season. This could get ugly, since FSU turns teams over at about 22.9%. Even if FSU may not have the depth available that they're used to, they're still going to get after teams defensively, trying to force 10-second calls and turnovers in the backcourt as much as possible. Most of FSU's guards are still healthy, for now, so it'll be interesting to see if or how the pressure changes.

Rebound

Pitt is capable of strong performances on the offensive glass, collecting about 31% of their own misses on the season, and FSU hasn't exactly been the greatest at finishing defensive possessions with a rebound, allowing an offensive rebound rate of about 28.9%. Especially with most of their bigs out, FSU is going to have to keep guys like John Hugley off of the glass.

Game Prediction

Florida State is favored by 10.5, with an over/under of 130.5.

I don't know where scoring is going to come from on either side, and this is going to be a very slow paced game. I also have a feeling that a youthful FSU defense is going to foul Pitt way too much, which is the only way they can have kind of success. I'm still fairly certain FSU pulls this out.

'Noles 66-59