Game Preview: FSU at Boston College
Florida State is traveling on one day of rest up to Chestnut Hill to play the Boston College Eagles, and this is going to be a very tired squad. Three players played 30+ minutes against Duke Saturday night, but luckily Boston College plays a very slow pace; it's going to be a much different game.
Boston College is currently on a 5-game losing streak, with only one of those five losses being by single digits (an overtime loss at Notre Dame). This is likely going to be a hungry and desperate squad that is tired of losing, and they'll have a good chance to do so here against Florida State.
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FSU owns the all-time series 13-7, though they're just 3-6 in games at BC, having not won up there since January of 2016. BC usually plays the 'Noles tough up there for whatever reason, though they do have a new head coach for the first time since 2014.
This game will be at 7pm on the ACC Network, live from the Conte Forum in Chestnut Hill, MA.
Boston College Eagle (9-16, 4-11) Breakdown
BC is in their first season under head coach Earl Grant, who came over from Charleston to try and find success in Chestnut Hill. It hasn't come so far. Here is who they have beaten in their 9 games: Dartmouth, Holy Cross, Fairfield, Columbia, South Florida, Notre Dame, Virginia Tech, Clemson, and Pittsburgh. Notre Dame and Virginia Tech are the only teas there above .500, and VT is fraudulent, so I don't know how much that one really counts. Things aren't always easy transitioning to a new coach, especially one who slows the pace down like Coach Grant does.
They only play about 66 possessions per game, and have only played 6 games with 70 or more possessions. This is a team that is very purposeful in their slowness. Just looking at their shooting percentages though, you wouldn't know why. Going slow only works if you're making every possession count. Entering this game, they're shooting 29.5% from 3, 46.7% on 2s, and 70.5% of their FTs. They've shot above 33.3% from 3 just 8 times all season, and are 2-12 in games they shoot below 33.3% from deep. It's just not a good shooting team, so playing a below average 3-point defense in Florida State may be beneficial for them.
They do a solid job of taking care of the ball and can crash the offensive glass decently as well, which FSU has really struggled with recently. The Noles have been hit hard on injuries in the front court, and their rebounding has suffered because of it.
Defensively, they're one of the worst at giving up 3s, allowing teams to shoot 37.1% from distance this season and have allowed 40% or more shots to fall in 11 different games. They're slightly above average at getting steals, and in a game where both teams are likely to be tired, there may be more turnovers than expected.
The Langford's, DeMarr and Makai, are the only two players who average double figures scoring for the Eagles. Makai takes more 3s, and DeMarr is a little bit better of a rebounder, but their games are very similar. Can handle the ball, facilitate when needed, and are solid rebounders for their size. Makai has a little bit of a higher usage rate, but both are guys that have to be respected.
Jaeden Zackery is the only player on the team that gets consistent minutes that is making more than 32% of his 3s, and he's stroking them at 42.9%. This is the one guy Florida State HAS to close out on hard when he has the ball, and his ability to be a secondary facilitator behind the Langford's is something to watch out for.
Their post players of James Karnik and Quinten Post are guys who I think need to get the ball more. Post is shooting 50.4% on 2s and is a phenomenal rebounder, he's going to be a tough matchup for this FSU team. Karnik is a solid, do-it-all big that can even stretch out to 3 if necessary.
Brevin Galloway followed Coach Grant from Charleston to bring some knowledge of the season, but he's had some major efficiency issues this season, shooting just 27.9% from the floor and 23% from 3. Most of his shots actually come from 3 (73.9% of his shots, to be exact), but he only has five games this season with more than two made 2s. He was a career-high 36% shooter from 3, just hasn't made the adjustment to ACC play.
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TJ Bickerstaff has missed the last two games with a calf injury, but is considered day-to-day. If he does play, he leads the team in defensive win shares, and is the best rebounder on a team that includes Quinten Post. FSU is going to have to get bodies on him any time a shot goes up.
Florida State Seminoles (14-12, 7-9) Breakdown
There's usually not much good to take away in an 18-point loss, but one thing that was very apparent was Jalen Warley and his play against Duke. 15 points, 7 rebounds, 6 assists, 2 steals, and just two turnovers in 35 minutes of play. Even in the game's waning moments, he was playing hard defense and was doing his best to initiate offense. There were a couple of passes he could've made that I thought would've been the better play, but I'm just nitpicking. I'm more pleased with him hitting two catch-and-shoot 3s in rhythm, and finishing plays like these.
That's a really confident take, and he was playing confident all game, the most confident he'd been playing all season. If he continues to keep playing like this, it's going to be a great step forward for the rest of this season and for next season.
Cam'Ron Fletcher continues to get better every game, and I hope that once guys start getting a little healthier, he keeps playing. His energy, especially on offense and on the glass, is something this team desperately needs. He played 33 minutes against Duke, thanks in some part to John Butler dealing with foul trouble, but he's well worth continuing to play more minutes.
Matthew Cleveland did well around the rim the other night, a welcome sight after some of his games recently. His mid-range... and free throws... still need work, but he just needs to continue being confident. He's a guy that gets a little disheveled after a bad miss. Eventually, he's going to learn to move on to the next shot, and the sooner that can come, the better.
I'm expecting this to be below 67 total possessions. FSU has played in 8 such games this year, and they're 4-4 in those. It's not their strongest point, though they've shown they can do it effectively against Miami, but it's also cost them against Georgia Tech and Clemson. We'll see how it goes in this one.
Injury Report
Caleb Mills is day-to-day with an ankle injury, and will be a game-time decision. I've been told his MRI came back clean, just choosing to play it safe right now.
RayQuan Evans will be a game-time decision with a knee injury.
Anthony Polite is doubtful to play with a wrist injury.
Naheem McLeod is out with a hand injury, and Malik Osborne is out with an ankle injury.
For BC, DeMarr Langford didn't play the second half against Syracuse after suffering an apparent toe injury. It's unclear if he'll play in this one.
TJ Bickerstaff, who has started 23 games, has missed the last two with a calf injury. He's considered day-to-day, and could play in this one.
Projected Starters
Boston College
G: Jaeden Zackery
G: Brevin Galloway
G: Makai Ashton-Langford
F: James Karnik
C: Quinten Post
Florida State
G: Jalen Warley
G: Matthew Cleveland
G: Wyatt Wilkes
F: John Butler
C: Tanor Ngom
Keys to the Game
Turnover Battle
These two teams are pretty similar defensively: they don't guard the 3 well and they force a ton of steals and turnovers (FSU is better at this, to be fair). Since both teams are coming off of a day of rest, there may be some sloppier play compared to normal. FSU can't afford to give Boston College extra opportunities, and this includes on the offensive glass, where BC is good as well.
Make Life Tough Inside
Boston College is shooting just 46.7% on 2s this season, and they seem to go as their close shots are falling. In games where they're 50% or better from 2, they're 6-4. In games where they're below 50%, they're 3-12, and those three wins were against South Florida, Columbia, and Fairfield. If you can keep Quinten Post from getting easy looks down low, bother James Karnik, and make life tough for the Langford's as they drive, you should be ok.
Gas in the Tank
Both of these teams played Saturday, both teams were blown out, and both teams had three guys play 30 or more minutes, with one on each side playing at least 38 minutes. BC also had to play at a much faster pace than they're accustomed to, They usually only play about 66 possessions per game, yet played 71 against Cuse on Saturday. Whichever team can muster up enough energy to continue through the end of the game is going to win.
Game Prediction
Florida State sits as a 1-point favorite with an over/under of 136.5.
This is going to be a very slow-paced game, likely with a lot of turnovers. FSU will still be running on limited depth, so they're going to have to find ways to stay fresh. Despite what's working against them, they should still be the better team by a decent margin. Whether they play up to their potential or not is another story. I'll still take the 'Noles in this one.
FSU 62-60
